It has definitely thrown a wrench into my plans as well. It’s hard to say how accurate this particular Crowd Level 10 will be.
There is definitely a certain margin for error in Crowd Calendar predictions. This post from a month ago gives an interesting example of how that might look in a given week.
However, there’s no question that early closures at MK cause crowds to gravitate toward the other parks and away from MK on the day of, and also increases MK crowds the day before and after, so I would trust TP to be close.
I was able to find one really comparable example of a past MK early closure when searching the forum, and I used TP Historical Crowd data to take a look.
Notice that MK was the busiest park the day before and after the early closing. The day after this 2018 early closing was an overall 5 at Disney World. This is also the prediction for May 4, 2022. So maybe this gives us reason to expect something like a 7 (like in 2018) rather than a 10 (what is currently predicted). Here’s more data on the day after that early closure. It shows you that TP predicted MK would be a 5 the day after, and it was actually a 7. I’m wondering if they’d rather be wrong the other way this time around. There are a few more factors:
- Will overall crowds continue to increase as post-COVID travel ramps up?
- Will crowds be trying to avoid HS because it’s “May the Fourth,” causing MK crowds to increase further?
However, looking at all of this, my thought is: If the overall crowd level really is a 5, I think I would prepare for MK to be at least an 8 on May 4. But I think I’d be surprised if it was a 10.
UPDATE - Something I hadn’t considered. Something that differentiates upcoming May 4th from my 2018 example is that May 4, 2022 is a day for extended hours in MK for qualifying guests. Factoring that in, I could understand why the crowd could be closer to 10 rather than the 7 or 8.