Just how far off were Crowd Predictions for 1/21-30/2022

Using this chart I made (on the left), populated from TouringPlans Crowd Calendar, I picked the last week of January for my trip based solely on these TP Crowd Calendar predictions, which showed very low numbers (indicated in blue in the Prediction chart), which has been typical for the last week of January in the past.

But while I was there I certainly didn’t feel like the crowds were low, as was evident by the number of people walking around and the high wait times for all attractions. (indicated in purple in the Actual chart).

In the third chart, you can see the difference in Actual vs. Prediction. Red being higher crowds than predicted and green being lower. There’s a lot of red.

I would love to hear from TP why they think it was so far off.


They (TP) actually release this day by day.

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I don’t understand your point.

Oh I just meant that you didn’t have to do all that work. They share that out every day so they do it for you (us)

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Well, I pulled the numbers form their daily report (like this one) and complied it into a chart. Are you saying they create a chart every day?

I love your custom charts and color coding. It takes time to put it all in 1 place. I have done the same before.


I think so… I’m in the car (not driving) so I can’t look for it now but maybe someone else has it Otherwise I’ll look for it tomorrow

Yeah, I’m an excel and numbers geek, so I love creating this stuff! (As you can see in my next post!) :smiley:

You’re in good company, and I enjoy it too!

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Just one note - they consider within 1 point to be “accurate.” And within 2 points is pretty good. I think they would only consider 1/24 and 1/27 (days with overall crowd level 3 higher than predicted) to be significantly off, and even then that’s a pretty high standard to be held to.

It’s just a prediction - it’s expected to be accurate only within a certain level of confidence. Even Disney doesn’t know exactly what crowds will be like, and they have access to a lot more data than TP does. Sometimes more crowds just decide to show up some days. :man_shrugging:

Here’s a retrospective of 2021. I think we’ll see another one of these for 2022 later this year (maybe multiple times):

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What’s really interesting to me is that based on your posts I’ve thought maybe these days ended up being 9s and 10s but it looks like 7s and under. Not that moderate crowds vs low crowds isn’t a jump but when I was there it was also in a similar range. My MK day was a 7 (though predicted to be a 10), my DHS day was a 5 (predicted a 10) and my AK day was a 4 (predicted 8). So when I went in expecting 8-10s and saw 4-7s I was pleasantly surprised and walked feeling like this was a very magical trip. This includes my time at USF where I had a 7 at USF (predicted 9) and 4 at IOA (predicted 7)

So though we both had 4-7 level crowds on various days we came away with a very different impression of it being crowded. I thought the 7 in MK and the 7 in USF were just fine. And I got everything done on both those days on my plan with ease. But I didn’t make my touring plan based on what TP said I could fit but more as a list of things to accomplish that I wanted to do. I felt like there were people but it was in no way like my crowded trips including Oct 2020 when I really did have 10s or worse like NYE in MK when I vowed never again.

I guess the intriguing thing to me is how the potential for our expectation on the crowds relates to our perspective. Someone want to do a study? ;-). @Jeff_AZ poll idea. Ha ha.


I think everyone was thrown off with that MK day that was a 10 that was followed by a 1 the next day.

I completely agree about expectations. My trip was supposed to be all 10s so the 7s were a pleasant surprise. I think some Disney actions like longer park hours, a full hour in the morning, and adding rides to G+ probably helped disperse crowds.

Because I was expecting a 10, I planned my days and expectations accordingly. But if I had expected a 4, I would have been caught off guard.

Also interesting to me, Epcot was apparently a 9 on our Epcot day. But because there was no Food and Wine, just Holiday stuff (and it was after Christmas) the crowd feel was significantly lower than other days when line waits were shorter. It was probably one of the most pleasant days I have spent in World Showcase.

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Any day in Epcot is a pleasant day for me as long as it’s in World Showcase. ha ha ha. Some would say with a slushy but for me I’d prefer a beer or wine and Voices of Liberty and I’m in heaven.

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I have to say perfect temperatures also added to the “this is super magical” feel. That and seeing the Candlelight Processional while drinking the Fig champagne cocktail.

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I would agree that this USED to be true. But now they are using the park reservation system, so they have a pretty darn good idea how many people will at least be starting their day at each park.

I wonder if they should share that info, maybe it would help spread out the crowds. If I was looking at their park reservation system trying to figure out which park to go to, and I see EP & MK have really high numbers, and AK is low, I might pick AK that day. Even if they don’t want to share capacity counts, they could do it with a percentage. “MK is 75% reserved. AK is 50% reserved.” Something like that.


I think this is pretty huge, actually. Generally speaking (pre-covid times), I actually like days of higher attendance. Since my Disney experience is limited to infrequent vacations, Im really thinking about my local zoo, but it applies. A Monday or Tuesday in November has low crowds and a lot of kiosks and restaurants are closed, but there are lots of exhibits and keeper talks and the usual things to do. It’s a good experience. A sunny Saturday in April has a ton of people, but everything is open and there is extra entertainment. Music. Hoola hoops. Murals out to color. Bubbles to make. It is more crowded but also more fun, so the crowd matters less.

Put the same high attendance crowds on that Tuesday in November where the park planned low crowds and it’s just going to be less fun than both the described days above.

It’s something to think about.

Meanwhile, I’m expecting my days will be busier than predicted - and just prioritize my days towards my personal high value goals.


They know within a few days or weeks. But the article I posted above shows that they miscalculated crowds based on ticket pricing, which was done at the beginning of the year.

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I like this idea!


I am not sure Disney would share park reservation info like that…nor do I think it would help. Why? Because it would shift the dynamic of when and how people book parks.

For one, people would wait longer to book reservations to see capacities. No need to worry about the park reservations being gone if you can see they still have 50% left.

But then, by waiting, those who book early think they are picking parks based on lower capacity info. I could book MK 6 months out because it shows 50% capacity. A month later it could jump to 100%, and my plans for lower crowds were completely off.

You would possibly see a lot more last minute juggling of parks people choose based on these numbers, since there is nothing like FPP to keep people from doing so. Only ADRs might limit things.

Finally, it could shift more crowds from busier weeks to less busy weeks, making it less likely to have lower crowds. This could lead to equalization of ticket and room prices, with fewer discounts offered as an alternate means to shift crowds…meaning, your trips would become even more expensive.


You make some good points, but I could see WDW sharing the info for this very reason. They seem to want to spread crowds out as evenly as possible, from what I can see.

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