Iâve got my umbrella and Tevas at the ready.
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It really depends on where you are on property. There was rain predicted every day - and WeatherBug would certainly give me lightning alerts and rain alertsâŚ
But I left home with a 10-pack of ponchos and returned home with 9. Mears Connect is currently giving a blue disposable poncho for your gift rather than a string backpack. I used one of mine on Monday and the Mears one on Tuesday. I had a couple with me each day, but never needed them! Timing and location luck.
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:quality(70)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/tronc/4QKXZ6F5XBAHDEGJOW25PJSIWM.png)
(NOAA/National Hurricane Center)
The tropics are heating up.
The National Hurricane Center is now tracking four tropical systems, according to its 8 a.m. Sunday update.
First, a tropical wave in the Central Tropical Atlantic has a 70 percent chance of forming into a depression or storm in the next five days and a 30 percent chance in the next two.
Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has increased somewhat since yesterday, it currently lacks organization, the NHC said.
A tropical depression is likely to form later this week while moving toward the west and then west-northwest at around 10 mph, toward the waters east of the Leeward Islands.
The second system is a trough of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean. It has a 10% chance to become a tropical system in the next five days as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula.
Third, a trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the middle part of this week. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of the system while it moves west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. The storm has a 20% chance of development in the next five days.
Finally, the hurricane center is monitoring a tropical wave that is emerging off the coast of Africa which has a 20% percent chance of forming in the next five days.
None of the systems are a threat to Florida at this time, but if any were to develop into a tropical storm, the first to do so would be named Danielle and the second would be Earl. The next two are Fiona and Gaston.
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Well they practically ensured this one, didnât they?
Funny story: when reviewing the list of storm names, I noticed that two in succession were the first and then the last name of one of my nurses who happens to be a bit of a big personality 
My team thought it was hilarious when I showed them, too!
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Thatâs was a thorough analysis! Added him to my follows.
For the TL;DR crowd, here are the âmoney shotsâ from that video of potential paths/timing over the upcoming week. Note the timing indicators in the top right.
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:quality(70)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/tronc/5QF7W5PBDFBP7I5CYPKYHKXNUU.png)
The tropical outlook as of 8 a.m. Monday, Aug. 29, 2022. (National Hurricane Center)
One of four systems being tracked by the National Hurricane Center is likely to form into the next tropical depression or storm within the next five days.
As of the NHCâs 8 a.m. tropical outlook Monday, the broad area of low pressure in the central Atlantic has a mass of disorganized cloudiness and showers.
âAlthough environmental conditions ahead of the system are currently only marginal favorable, some gradual development of this system is expected over the next several days and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week,â said NHC senior hurricane specialist Daniel Brown.
2 pm ET Aug 28: Satellite-derived winds indicate that broad low pressure in the central tropical Atlantic is producing winds to near gale force, but the circulation remains elongated with an ill-defined center. (1/2)https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 pic.twitter.com/R00gxRSl7l
â National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 28, 2022
The system is expected to move west then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph in an area east and northeast of the Leeward Islands. Its potential path has been noted by NASA officials that have to consider the tropical threat in the event the Artemis I rocket misses its Monday opportunity to launch from Kennedy Space Center. Its next flight opportunities are during windows on Friday, Sept. 2 and Monday, Sept. 5.
The NHC gives this system a 50% chance to form into a tropical depression or storm in the next two days, and an 80% chance in the next five.
The other three systems with potential are all currently low for chances of formation. The most likely is a system coming off the western coast of Africa into the far eastern Atlantic, where a tropical wave is expected to form late today.
âSome gradual development of the system is possible after that time while it moves generally westward across the far eastern tropical Atlantic,â Brown said.
The NHC gives it a 10% chance to form into a tropical depression or storm in the next two days, and 30% in the next five.
A trough of low pressure, meanwhile, is brewing in the northwest Caribbean Sea that could form by mid-week.
âEnvironmental conditions could support some slow development of the system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico,â Brown said.
Its chances are put at 20% in the next five days.
Finally in the mid-Atlantic is a small low pressure system located about 600 miles east of Bermuda that has limited shower activity, and strong upper-level winds and dry air are expected to limit its development as it drifts south over the central Atlantic. The NHC expects it to dissipate by midweek and gives it only a 10% chance of formation in the next two to five days.
If any of the systems form into a named tropical storm, it would become Tropical Storm Danielle. After that, the hurricane seasonâs names are Earl, Fiona and Gaston.
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Our local people are saying that as of this morning, most of the models are showing it approaching the east coast and then turning away to the NE. But that could change. Note the projected positions below are Mon/Tue next week, not this week, so we are in the early stages of sorting this one.
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boy, I feel like the Orlando Sentinel is really falling down on weather updates. I know there are A LOT of political issues going on right now in FL w/ the start of a new school year and all the new âquestionableâ laws effecting teachers and classrooms but come on itâs also hurricane season!?!
not wanted to start any political debate⌠just noticing their focus 
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Yeah, itâs easy for things to get lost in the news cycles . ABC13 has had a dedicated tropical weather webpage for awhile, but in the last couple of years, theyâve really stepped up the quality/frequency of updates.
When things start to get more dicey here, I also have a couple of regional sources I go to. They totally nerd out on all things weather, a lot of which is above my head and often way more than I really wanted to know, but they are helpful in trying to evaluate stay/evacuate decisions.
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TIL the Greek letters are no longer used after the name list is exhausted?!?
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So. DH and I were trying to plan a last minute trip for Monday-Thurs next week. We have several places we could go, but also have UOR APs and flight points. I was able to get RPR at Universal for $244 per night but Iâm now worried about whether the weather (see what I did there?) would affect flights as well as rainfall in Orlando. Those darn spaghetti models make it too hard to tell right now, but I have to cancel by tomorrow to not be charged one night. Also, DH had wanted to go to Turks & Caicos (I went last month on a girls trip and loved it!) and itâs not much longer flying time for us than Orlando. A short trip would be lovely. But thereâs that pesky tropical storm/hurricane possibility for there as well. We could drive to the beach in our own state (MD) but a storm in the Atlantic may make high surf/rip currents and weâve been there so so many times. I think I had been lulled into a so- far mild hurricane season.
He can get off work again at the beginning of October. Still hurricane season and I havenât been able to find as cheap of hotel rates anywhere. But, that date is only a few days past my bday (50!) so that might be nice.
Since none of you (I think) are meteorologists, Iâm sure you canât help. But, what would you do?!
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The weather is SO unpredictable⌠as you know 
Hurricane season is June 1 to Nov 30, w/ heaviest activity in September. It has been remarkably quiet so far. We are supposed to fly out of Orlando on 9/7 and I am hoping the weather cooperates. I say, think about what you really really want and know that temps donât start to really cool down until mid November.
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Will you do a trip report? I havenât been to Hawaii in, letâs see, almost 20 years now. I know you donât post photos, but I would love to see the scenery!!
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I think you are the 2nd or 3rd person to ask, so I guess I must It will be a bit different that last year.
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Yep, you must.
WaitâŚdifferent than last year? If there is another, please provide a link.
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