Off to read 
2 Likes
Enjoyed the read and the photos!! I can’t wait to follow along this time!!
1 Like
Thanks. I’ll do my best 
1 Like
If that turns into a hurricane when would it likely hit land or is it too soon to tell? I’m getting nervous. My trip starts this Sunday 4-11.
1 Like
I watched a video. Looks like too soon to tell. A cold front could send it back to sea.
2 Likes
:quality(70)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/tronc/3EZMUZYBSVHDFPNQ7D75PH5U4E.png)
The tropical outlook as of 2 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 30, 2022. (National Hurricane Center)
The Atlantic has two weather systems Tuesday with potential to become the next tropical depression or storm of the season, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The first is a broad and elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. It is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, according to the NHC’s 2 p.m. tropical outlook.
“Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, some gradual development of this system is expected over the next several days and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week or this weekend,” said hurricane specialist Brad Reinhart.
Aug 29th - A broad area of ow pressure in the central #Atlantic has a high chance of development over the next 5 days. Fresh to strong easterly #winds in the northern quadrant & #seas of 8-11 ft are expected through midweek. More at http://hurricanes.gov/marine #GOESEast #marinewx pic.twitter.com/fYXLm9Gpfe
— NHC_TAFB (@NHC_TAFB) August 29, 2022
The system is expected to move west then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph in an area adjacent to the northern Leeward Islands. NASA officials noted its potential path that has to consider the tropical threat now that the Artemis I rocket missed its Monday opportunity to launch from Kennedy Space Center. Its next flight opportunities are during windows on Friday, Sept. 2 and Monday, Sept. 5.
The NHC gives this system a 50% chance of forming into a tropical depression or storm in the next two days and an 80% chance in the next five.
The second system is a tropical wave off the west coast of Africa that emerged Tuesday morning, which is accompanied by a broad area of low-pressure forecast to move west to west-northwest in the next few days.
“Some gradual development is possible, and the system could become a short-lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic during the next few days,” Reinhart said. “By late this week, environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for further development.
Either way, the system could bring heavy rain to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands by Wednesday.
The NHC gives it a 20% chance of formation in the next two days and a 40% chance in the next five.
If any of the systems form into a named tropical storm, it would become Tropical Storm Danielle. After that, the hurricane season’s names are Earl, Fiona and Gaston.
1 Like
:quality(70)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/tronc/BC4YM2LCJZDXNPS7ZDEOQX3SMU.png)
Tropical outlook 8 a.m. update 8/31/22 (The National )
Much like a pressure cooker, the Atlantic basin is cooking several weather systems and storm models keep raising their odds of developing into the next tropical depression or storm. According to the National Hurricane Center’s 8 a.m. update, all three systems have medium to high chances of becoming the next named storm, which would be Danielle.
The first is a broad and elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. It is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The system has a 60% chance of forming into a tropical depression or storm in the next two days and an 80% chance in the next five.
“Additional gradual development of this system is expected and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days,” said Lisa Bucci, an NHC specialist.
Regardless of development, the system is expected to move west then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph adjacent to the northern Leeward Islands, which could create problems for NASA’s next attempt at launching Artemis I. NASA officials noted the system’s potential path could be a threat to a Saturday launch after the Artemis I rocket missed its Monday opportunity to blast off from Kennedy Space Center. Its next flight opportunities are during windows on Saturday, Sept. 3, and Monday, Sept. 5.
The second system is a tropical wave off the west coast of Africa that emerged Tuesday morning and is accompanied by a broad area of low-pressure forecast to move west to west-northwest in the next few days.
“Some gradual development is possible, and the system could become a short-lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic during the next few days,” Bucci said. “By late this week, environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for further development.
Either way, the system could bring heavy rain to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands by Wednesday. The NHC gives it a 40% chance of formation in the next two days and a 50% chance in the next five.
A third system was identified Tuesday evening over the central subtropical Atlantic, about 850 miles west-southwest of the westernmost Azores. The NHC has since raised its odds of becoming a tropical depression or storm Wednesday morning to 60% in the next two days and a 70% chance in the next five.
The system is forecasted to drift eastward and is expected to form an area of low pressure that could potentially turn into a tropical or subtropical development.
If any of the systems form into a named tropical storm, it would become Tropical Storm Danielle. After that, the hurricane season’s names are Earl, Fiona, and Gaston.
2 Likes
Looks like most agree the spaghetti will head west
2 Likes
Hey… maybe swimming is off the table for so. FL right now: Health advisory for six beaches in south Florida (msn.com)
2 Likes
At least the turn is supposed to happen well before it approaches the east coast, so that gives lots of space if the turn is late.
3 Likes
:quality(70)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/tronc/ELMZXLFCHVF4JLTOZBLI5LTVBU.png)
2 p.m. 8/31/22 Wednesday tropical outlook (The National Hurricane Center)
After weeks of no tropical depressions or storms, the Atlantic is highly likely to see the emergence of the fourth named storm of the year this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Meteorologists are tracking three weather systems with two having high chances of becoming tropical depressions in the next two days, according to the 2 p.m. Wednesday outlook. The third system has a medium chance of also becoming a tropical depression this weekend.
The first system with high chances is a broad and elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. A hurricane hunter aircraft found little has changed in the system’s organization since Tuesday, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The system is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, said Lisa Bucci, an NHC specialist. The system has a 60% chance of forming into a tropical depression or storm in the next two days and an 80% chance in the next five.
Hurricane season is heating up! NHC is monitoring 3 areas for tropical development during the next 5 days in the Atlantic basin. See here for details: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 pic.twitter.com/VFbas84xIN
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 31, 2022
“Additional gradual development of this system is expected and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days,” Bucci said.
The system’s development could pose a problem for NASA’s plans to launch its Artemis I rocket Saturday. NASA officials noted the system’s potential path could be a threat to a Saturday launch after Artemis missed its Monday opportunity to blast off from Kennedy Space Center due to a fuel leak. Its next flight opportunities are during windows on Saturday and Monday.
The second system the NHC is tracking is an area of low pressure that has been rapidly improving its signs of organization about 850 miles west-southwest of the westernmost Azores, the Bucci said.
“Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so, while the system drifts generally eastward,” Bucci said.
The NHC raised its odds of becoming a tropical depression or storm Wednesday afternoon to 70% in the next two days and an 80% chance in the next five.
Additionally, the NHC is tracking a broad area of low-pressure northeast of the Cabo Verde islands. The system has developed gradually and could become a tropical depression in a couple of days. However, the Atlantic environment will become very hostile for the tropical system after its possible formation. Either way, the system could bring heavy rain to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands by Wednesday. The NHC gives it a 40% chance of formation in the next two days and a 50% chance in the next five.
If any of the systems form into a named tropical storm, it would become Tropical Storm Danielle. After that, the hurricane season’s names are Earl, Fiona, and Gaston.
The 2022 hurricane season has had only three named storms and none since early July. It’s possible the season could go the entire month of August without a named system. Despite the recent silence in the tropics, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration still predicts an above-average year with 14 to 21 named storms as of an early August forecast.
The 2020 hurricane season set a record with 30 named systems, while 2021′s season was the third most active with 21 named systems. An average year calls for 14 named storms.
The hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, with the traditional peak of hurricane season running from mid-August to mid-October.
1 Like
4 Likes
Hooray!
2 Likes
Danielle is a bit of an oddball. She’s apparently going to spend all weekend spinning in circles before moving NE? 
2 Likes
she’s wearing her twirly dress 
4 Likes
most of those models have a very abrupt turn. there must be a strong front on the coastline that won’t allow it to progress westward after that point. and is it just me, or is this system super slow moving?
2 Likes
