Summer Predictions

So no one has a crystal ball, obviously. However, I am interested in what all of you think about what summer will look like COVID restriction-wise at WDW. Lets say for sake of argument we use August 10 (mid point of summer.) What will the parks looks like on August 10th:


  1. Same as current
  2. Only indoors/queues
  3. None

Nighttime fireworks:

  1. None
  2. All back except Harmonious
  3. All back with Harmonious

Fast Pass:

  1. None
  2. Back, same as it was
  3. Back but with modifications


  1. 35%
  2. 50%
  3. 75% or more

Masks - 2

Nighttime shows/ fireworks - 1

FPP - 1

Capacity - 2


Yup but I’d say masks same as current till kids can get vaccinated which I’m not sure will happen by 8/10. I think masks restrictions might outlive the pandemic a little.


When do we think some of the backstage tours will recommence? Specifically at AK.

I think 1, 1, 1, 2.


Masks: 1. Same as current
Nighttime fireworks: 1. None
Fast Pass: 1. None
Capacity: 2. 50%


I am going to say 1,1,1,2

WDW is not overly concerned about re-opening summertime attractions right now.

The 50th-anniversary celebration starting on October 1st is their target. I would expect nighttime fireworks shows to come back in the fall.

It is going to be hard to do mask enforcement halfway. Many queues are outdoors, enforce masks for outdoor queues or not? I would guess masks when they go away, will be completely eliminated.


Masks - 1

Fireworks - 1 but I think they might try out some different things in the summer like maybe doing fireworks one night a week or one park each day or something if for no other reason than getting their pyro team ready for the 50th.

Fastpass - 1 but if they do bring it back I think it’s going to be modified. However, given that they’re using the Fastpass system for park reservations I’m not even sure if it’s an option at the moment?

Capacity - 2

I’m not sure that I understand what you mean but I’m interested; can you describe what they are doing here? They are using the fastpass system to keep track of park reservations?

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They using some of the Fastpass software (?) for park reservations, apparently.

From this thread:


Very interesting! I did not know that, thanks for the nugget of knowledge!


So in the absence of entertainment, fireworks, and FPP returning this summer as many above have speculated, what do we predict 50% capacity will look like? 50% is a 43% increase in capacity from where it is now. Can they honestly fit that many more people in socially distanced queues?? Would that require shows to reopena nd incresed restaurant capacity? Aside from the increased wait times, this seems like a logistical nightmare until they open everything up.



FIREWORKS - 4 (Only Harmonious)
Only because Disney has that ugly thing hanging out in plain sight and would look foolish if they don’t soon get it to be productive.

Otherwise Disney has written off the Park’s 2021 ROI and will push everything they can into 2022 to make 2022’s numbers as good as possible (read Ratatouille)

Same reasoning as fireworks.

Just enough of a bump to bolster Resort bookings.

Masks on for the reminder of the year.
Fireworks back by 50th anniversary
Capacity 50% by mid summer. 75% by 50th anniversary.
Fast passes: gone forever as we use to know them.
Meet and greets: hopefully back by 50th anniversary.

I am all for safety but By the 50th anniversary all adults who want it can get vaccinated. I am also thinking that +5 years old should be able to get vaccinated.

Maybe I am being too optimistic because I am going in November and I am vaccinated.

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1, 1, 1, 2.

I think there will be a gradual lifting of restrictions and bringing back entertainment. I think Disney is aiming for the 50th. My trip is the week after Thanksgiving and I think things are going to look a lot different by then. Not sure about the mask situation or FP’s, but I think nighttime shows and most of the entertainment that Disney wants back will be back by my trip.

They would have to change the social distancing in queues and open up more restaurants and closed attractions to increase capacity to 50% or 75%. There are parts of the parks that are so crowded even at 35% (if it is still at that level).

Michelle I totally agree. Capacity isn’t going up without:

  1. Less distancing
  2. More open attractions/shows/restaurants
  3. Fast passes

If there is less distancing then night time shows will be back.

So either capacity goes up this summer and we get a lot of stuff back or capacity stays the same.

It seems as though they are already calling cast members back for the summer which is a huge hint at capacity going up.

I think covid numbers are about to start to plummet in the next three weeks. By June 1st I think we will be in great shape.

If I am right, I see a much more normal park experience by August. Maybe I am wrong though. Time will tell. It seems Disney is at least preparing itself for a ramp up in capacity in the summer.

Masks - no change, may become ‘optional’ in October
Fireworks - none until October - 50th anniversary
Capacity 50% by summer. Higher for 50th anniversary.
Fast passes: Back for October in some fashion (perhaps only certain attractions), but most likely will come at an extra cost.

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from my German point of view the US vaccination campaign is going very well. Approximately half of all adults in the US got at least one shot. Every week more than 15 million people are added, thus, on 10th of August, you will get more than 70% of the population vaccinated plus - I am really really sorry about all the fatalities - the convalescents. My crystal ball shows very low infection rates in July.

Starting from this, my forecast is:
Masks: 2 or 3
Fireworks: 3
Fast Pass: 3 - modifications probably in the Californian DL-way
Capacity: 3

I guess, Disney wants to distribute the crowds over all seasons, thus, they will increase the capacity and the number of shows and other amenities as soon as possible, IMHO.


Welcome to the forum and for your sunny :sunglasses: predictions