Orlando area actually improved from yesterday
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Florida is freaking killing me! Especially when I see the NH/MA numbers. (Yay I think Storyland might open by August!)
I think so far we are comfortable with being on Disney property and will be ok if we need to quarantine on the way home. But not if FL turns into ground zero.
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I keep waffling on our trip scheduled to begin July 31! The numbers in Florida keep going in the wrong direction, and now my head keeps telling me how irresponsible it will be for DS and I to still go, but my heart wants to be at a Disney!
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We need to give Florida a full week and a half before we can really draw any useful conclusions. So, keep it on the âwatchâ list, but not yet the âfreaking outâ list.
(It might still end up on the âfreaking outâ list mind youâŚbut we just canât tell yet. It is too soon.)
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Nate Silver ran an analysis that showed that the best predictor of whether a state has growing cases now is whether it had a lot of cases before. In other words, if a state already had an outbreak, cases are slowing down, regardless of what measures are in place. States that havenât had an outbreak yet are seeing growth now.
Another way to put it is that every state will need to have its reckoning ⌠but better now that we have better treatment options, more preparation, more ICU capacity, etc. And the growth rate is fairly low, actually. In NYC cases were tripling or quintupling every 5 days in March. In Florida, it will take weeks or months to triple cases at this rate.
https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1273391254005600256?s=21
Anyway, exponential growth isnât good, but if people will just wear masks they can probably squash the curve enough to keep a low simmer rather than a boil. I wouldnât write off your late summer trip just yet.
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Here is a graphical representation to back up what I said before -
First is New York. Rt was 3.0 back in March when they had their big outbreak:
Now here is Florida. They managed to avoid an outbreak in March with low case count and lower Rt (2.2). But now cases have started growing again ⌠but only with an R of ~1.1. It doesnât take much to squash that back down to 1.0 or less (masks!).
I hope Disney World opening will be a good example for other Florida businesses on how to operate while maintaining safe protocols. The more people get used to mask wearing, sanitizer, etc. the faster we can get back to ânormalâ activities.
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Why?
Why, what?
I did see where Hawaii went from worst to first in a matter of days this week. I actually reached out to rt.live to ask them what might account for such a dramatic 50-place change.
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Why give them a week and a half? What is magical about that?
I thought I saw an announced date for Canobie? Am I imagining that?
Oh. Well, Iâm just thinking about time from diagnosis to hospitalizations, etc. If we see a large increase in cases, but in a week and a half, the number of hospitalizations (and/or deaths) remains flat, then the claims that are being given about why we are seeing a rise in numbers now becomes much more believable.
If, however, in a week and a half, the numbers continue to rise AND we see a rise in the hospitalizations, then it would be a sign of actual increased spread.
The trouble is, the surge in cases in Florida is still too short a time frame to tell.
Nothing magical about 1 1/2 weeks exactly, other than it puts the start of the âspikeâ to then at about 2 weeks (14 days).
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Everything in central Florida is magical! Havenât you heard? 
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I see they are expecting to open 7/16. The news alert I got was that he was speaking more about daycares and amusement parks?
July is good!
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Oh. Right. Forgive me.
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I saw that too! I think Canobie is taking a page out of the Disney playbook and trying to heavily push on the govt instead of waiting for direction. I know a couple people that work there year-round and they were hoping for 7/1!
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We have a thread in the Disneyland section of the forum discussing a video with leaked images from the new reservation system ⌠in case anyone is interested. It will probably work the same way at WDW, though with modifications to match WDWâs differences, of course.
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The only thing Iâm concerned about is the ability to hold only 2 ressies at once. Again, this video is about DisneyLAND and even that is unofficial. But if one can only hold so few ressies, with no data to support late adds after you log in for the first one, Iâm not sure a 10 day trip can stand.
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