Tropics Outlook 8/12/22 (The National Hurricane Center)
The National Hurricane Center has its eyes on another system, one much closer to Florida, according to the 8 a.m. Friday update.
A surface trough of low pressure is developing over the north-central Gulf of Mexico near Louisiana, the NHC said. Slow development is possible; the NHC gave the low a 10% chance of developing over the next several days.
While it does, the system should drift away from Florida and push toward the northwest end of the Gulf.
Forecasters predict heavy rain for portions of Texas regardless of development.
The tropical outlook as of 8 p.m. Monday, Aug. 15, 2022. (National Hurricane Center)
The National Hurricane Center has been jumping around the last few days tracking short-lived systems with the potential to form into a tropical depression or storm. Late Monday, the NHC began looking at the Caribbean Sea.
As of the NHC’s 8 p.m. tropical update, a tropical wave located in the central Caribbean is forecast to move across Central America and emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico where it could develop into the season’s next named system.
“Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves slowly to the northwest or north-northwest over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend,” said NHC hurricane specialist Philippe Papin.
The NHC gives the system a 20% chance of formation in the next five days.
The Caribbean system follows the NHC keeping track of a broad trough of low pressure in the mid-Atlantic late Sunday, but its chances of formation dropped to 0% by Monday morning. Over the weekend, the NHC tracked a system in the Gulf of Mexico, but it failed to form into more than a spate of showers and thunderstorms that drenched southeastern Texas. Before that, a system off the African coast showed some signs of development before environmental factors snuffed its chances.
Not headed to FL but might affect other liner friends
Tropical outlook 8/19/22 (The National Hurricane Center)
The National Hurricane Center raised the odds of development for a system in the Gulf of Mexico and are expecting it to become the next tropical depression tonight or by early Saturday.
A broad area of low pressure now has a 60% chance of becoming a depression or the fourth named storm of the year in the next two to five days, the NHC said in a special 11 a.m. update. Previously a tropical wave, the low emerged over the Bay of Campeche Friday morning and is producing better organized shower activity. If it does develop, it will take on the name Tropical Storm Danielle.
Yeah, our local people seem to think there’s a chance of a tropical storm but likely nothing more significant than that. Puts a lot of rain in our forecast. We’ll gas up the vehicles today, just in case. Already stocked in food so really not much prep to be done. I walked our outside drainage yesterday during one of the downpours. Two downspouts aren’t flowing as well as they should so we’ll get them cleaned out before something more significant blows through, but all the other drainage looks in order. I’m due to check the attic for leaks, so will do that during one of the upcoming downpours.
We’re having an incredibly mild and cloudy day here in NC too. We have the windows open and ceiling fans on. Absolutely unheard of in August in the South.
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it really does 
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