Subtropical Storm Nicole cone of uncertainty as of 7 a.m. Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022. (National Hurricane Center)
As Subtropical Storm Nicole begins to transition to a tropical storm and strengthen, the potential Category 1 hurricane’s projected path has shifted north with a landfall closer to Brevard County late Wednesday or early Thursday and path that could bring it right over Orlando, according to the National Hurricane Center.
As of the 7 a.m. NHC advisory Tuesday, Nicole is located about 385 miles east-northeast of the northwestern Bahamas and 520 miles east of Melbourne Beach, Florida, up now to 50 mph sustained winds and moving west-northwest at 8 mph. Forecasters expect the storm to turn west and even west-southwest into tonight, then toward the northwest on Thursday.
“Nicole is expected to make a transition to a tropical storm later today and begin strengthening, and it is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength by Wednesday and Wednesday night while it is moving near the northwestern Bahamas and approaching the east coast of Florida,” forecasters said.
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This enhanced infrared satellite image shows Subtropical Storm Nicole as of 4 a.m. EST (5 a.m. AST) on Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022. (NOAA - GOES-East)
A subtropical storm gets its energy from the temperature and pressure changes between two large weather systems, which results in a cooler center and higher winds farther away from the core. Nicole’s tropical-storm-force winds extend out to 380 miles. As it moves over warmer water, though, the storm’s center should become more compact with a better defined eye.
The NHC’s cone of uncertainty still has a wide swath, with the storm’s projected forecast to move anywhere as far south as Delray Beach to as far north of just offshore of Jacksonville. The consensus center, though has it approaching southern Brevard County late Wednesday with a landfall after midnight with 75 mph sustained winds and gusts up to 90 mph.
The path could bring it right over metro Orlando as a tropical storm with more than 50 mph sustained winds and 65 mph gusts before it shifts toward the north cutting up toward Gainesville and Tallahassee and into the southern U.S.
The NHC, though, warns of dangers that expand hundreds of miles away from its center.
“Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center, outside of the forecast cone,” the NHC stated. “These hazards are likely to affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast U.S.”
4 am EST Tuesday, November 8 Key Messages for Subtropical Storm #Nicole.https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/085536.shtml?key_messages#contents pic.twitter.com/V40NugL7Uw
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) November 8, 2022
The NHC has kept a hurricane watch in place from the Brevard-Volusia county line south to Hallandale Beach as well as Lake Okeechobee and a tropical storm warning from Hallandale Beach up to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. On Tuesday, the NHC added Florida’s west coast from north of Bonita Beach up to the Ochlockonee River to a tropical storm watch.
Inland tropical storm warnings were issued by the National Weather Service in Melbourne for Brevard, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole and Volusia counties while Marion, Polk and Sumter counties are under a tropical storm watch.
1-minute Mesoscale Sector @NOAASatellites
#GOES16/#GOESeast Visible & Infrared images showed the meandering exposed low-level circulation of #SubtropicalStormNicole southeast of Buoy 41047 - flanked by meager bursts of convection: https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-blog/images/2022/11/221107_goes16_visible_infrared_Subtropical_Storm_Nicole_anim.mp pic.twitter.com/swx3jKGyFr
— UW-Madison CIMSS (@UWCIMSS) November 8, 2022
Before Florida, though, the system will move over the northwestern Bahamas. A hurricane warning is in place for the the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini and Grand Bahama Island with a tropical storm warning for the Andros Island, New Providence and Eleuthera.
“Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning across all of the northwestern Bahamas by tonight,” forecasters said. “Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area along the east coast of Florida by Wednesday night with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the west coast of Florida by Wednesday night.”
The NHC’s next intermediate advisory is at 7 a.m. with its next path projection at 10 a.m.
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Forecast rain for Florida from Subtropical Storm Nicole, from the National Hurricane Center. (National Hurricane Center)
While damaging winds are a concern, Central Florida, which is still draining from the flood damage of September’s Hurricane Ian, can expect more rain from the system. The NHC said Nicole will bring 3 to 5 inches of rain with some areas up to 7 inches across the Florida peninsula. The NWS in Melbourne said Central Florida could see closer to 6 inches of rain across eastern Osceola and Brevard Counties northward across the Saint Johns River basin.
“Urban and poor drainage flooding is increasingly likely, especially where the water table remains high,” the NWS stated. “The combination of heavy rainfall and strong northeast winds could also cause additional flooding and standing water concerns over the Saint Johns River basin, where river flood warnings remain in effect. A flood watch will likely be issued for all of east central Florida later today.”
The coasts of Brevard and Volusia are also subject to 8- to 10-foot waves beginning today growing bigger as the system approaches, the NWS said.
“Numerous life-threatening rip currents will continue. The strong winds and high surf will combine with ongoing high astronomical tides to bring significant storm surge and major beach erosion around the times of the next several high tide cycles from Tuesday through Thursday,” the NWS said. “Coastal areas of Volusia County which suffered serious damage from Hurricane Ian remain particularly vulnerable to additional beach erosion and inundation from coastal flooding.”
The NHC’s storm surge warning indicated from 3 to 5 feet could be seen from North Palm Beach up to Georgia as well as 2-4 feet from the mouth of the St. Johns River inland south to Georgetown, Florida in Putnam County.
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Subtropical Storm Nicole’s wind arrival times as of 4 a.m. EST (5 a.m. AST) on Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022. (National Hurricane Center)
Gov. Ron DeSantis on Monday issued a State of Emergency for 34 counties in the storm’s potential path, including all of Central Florida.
“While this storm does not, at this time, appear that it will become much stronger, I urge all Floridians to be prepared and to listen to announcements from local emergency management officials,” DeSantis said in a press release. “We will continue to monitor the trajectory and strength of this storm as it moves toward Florida.”
Counties in the order are Brevard, Broward, Charlotte, Citrus, Clay, Collier, DeSoto, Duval, Flagler, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Highlands, Hillsborough, Indian River, Lake, Lee, Manatee, Martin, Miami-Dade, Nassau, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pasco, Polk, Putnam, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Johns, St. Lucie, Sumter and Volusia.
[ MAP: Here’s the latest forecast track for Subtropical Storm Nicole ]
“… Regardless of final track or intensity, [Nicole’s] impacts are expected across east Central Florida,” the NWS Melbourne office said in its weather discussion. “Preparations need to be completed prior to Wednesday, as conditions will rapidly deteriorate into Wednesday afternoon. Be sure to stay up to date on the latest forecast and any Watches or Warnings. Those still dealing with the devastating impacts from Hurricane Ian are especially encouraged to make preparations and monitor the forecast.”
Earlier Monday, DeSantis said state emergency officials are in contact will all 67 of the state’s counties to identify potential resource gaps and enact plans for the state to respond quickly and efficiently to the system.
“I encourage all Floridians to be prepared and make a plan in the event a storm impacts Florida,” he said in a press release.
The release reminded Floridians “to know if they live in an evacuation zone, a low-lying, flood-prone area, a mobile home or an unsafe structure during hurricane season. It is also very important for residents to know their home and its ability to withstand strong winds and heavy rain.”
[ Will Subtropical Storm Nicole hit Orlando? ]
One of the counties with severe beachfront damage from Ian was Volusia, and Emergency Director Jim Judge said the winds from the system’s north and east quadrants are a particular threat again.
“We need to take this storm very seriously because it could cause more coastal erosion, which could be devastating to our beachfront properties impacted by Hurricane Ian,” he said. “We’re also looking at rainfall amounts anywhere from of 4 to 8 inches through Friday that could cause flooding, along with tropical-storm-force winds that could cause widespread power outages.”
Seminole County emergency officials on Monday also said they are preparing for Nicole to dump several inches of rain this week, particularly in areas where flood waters from Hurricane Ian just recently began to recede.
“No one wants to hear that, but that is what it looks like as of today,” said Alan Harris, director of Seminole’s office of emergency management. “Each forecast has gotten a little worse for us here.”
The St. Johns River is currently rated at a minor flood stage. But rains from Nicole may swell it to moderate flood stage, county officials said, with as much as 7 to 8 inches of rain in some areas of Seminole.
Harris also said the zig-zag path potential is a concern as it moves over the state.
“A double whammy I guess is certainly a possibility,” he said. “We’ve seen this before in Seminole County — 2008. I am not saying this is going to be Tropical Storm Fay, but the track is the exact opposite but very similar where the storm came over us, made a U-Turn, and then came back over us. This is looking to be very similar to that.”
Sentinel staff writer Martin Comas contributed to this report.
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Subtropical Storm Nicole chance for tropical-storm-force winds as of 1 a.m. EST (5 a.m. AST) on Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022. (National Hurricane Center)
