This isn’t expected to be a hurricane. A tropical storm at best.
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Yeah, well we took the last one. By rights, this one should be all yours.
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Yes, very relieved about that. It seems unlikely that the campground would flood with that amount of rain, because then it would be flooding constantly.
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Nah there’s no backsies 
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I always thought it was mostly potential wind damage that prompts Fort Wilderness closure. 
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The cabins are trailers and those types of structures are issued mandatory evacuation orders during a hurricane (don’t know which category it starts at). I don’t ever remember seeing mandatory evacuation orders for anything but fires or hurricanes.
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Subtropical Storm Nicole cone of uncertainty as of 5 a.m. Monday, Nov. 7, 2022. (National Hurricane Center)
Subtropical Storm Nicole formed Monday morning in the Atlantic Ocean with a projected path that could bring it to Florida’s east coast by Wednesday night near hurricane strength, according to the National Hurricane Center.
As of 5 a.m., the system was located about 555 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph moving north-northwest at 14 mph. It’s expected to slow down its forward speed later Monday and begin a west to west-southwest push from Tuesday to Thursday.
“On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday, move near or over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida by Wednesday night,” said NHC senior hurricane specialist Robbie Berg.
5 am AST Monday, November 7 Key Messages for Subtropical Storm #Nicole.https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/090133.shtml?key_messages#contents pic.twitter.com/19uCpZWpQJ
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) November 7, 2022
While classified now as subtropical with a massive wind field with 40 mph winds out as far as 275 miles, the forecast predicts it will transition to a tropical system with a more defined eye with higher wind speeds around the eye at the center of its circulation by two to three days, Berg said.
“It’s not out of the question for Nicole to reach hurricane strength, especially given how warm the waters are in the vicinity of the Bahamas,” Berg said. “It should be stressed, however, that no matter Nicole’s ultimate intensity, the storm’s large size will likely cause significant wind, storm surge and rainfall impacts over a large portion of the northwestern Bahamas, Florida, and the southeastern coast of the United States during much of the upcoming week.”
The five-day forecast cone has the consensus path bringing it close Florida’s coast by 2 a.m. Thursday with 70 mph sustained winds and gusts up to 85 mph. Its path could having it making landfall somewhere between West Palm Beach and Brevard County, and then traveling northwest across the state with the center somewhere between Orlando and Lakeland by mid-Thursday, then shifting Friday and getting pulled back to the northeast up into the southern U.S.
Since it has yet to become a tropical system, its path and intensity are less predictable, according to the NHC, and the five-day cone stretches from south of Miami all the way up to it not even making landfall, but off the coast of Daytona Beach before it gets pulled back to the northeast.
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The chances withing five days of tropical-storm-force winds from Subtropical Storm Nicole as of 2 a.m. Monday, Nov. 7, 2022. (National Hurricane Center)
No matter the path, its reach could bring the risk of dangerous storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall.
A tropical storm watch is now in effect for the northwestern Bahamas, and more watches for the Bahamas and Florida could be issued later today, the NHC stated.
For now, the Bahamas could see as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal storm surge while also experiencing 2 to 4 inches of rain with some areas seeing up to 6 inches through Thursday.
Florida’s massive swath of damage from September’s Hurricane Ian left much of central part of the state flooded from Ian’s heavy rains. More rain dumped from this system could stress water tables that are still coming down since the hurricane, and could lead to more flooding, according to the National Weather Service in Melbourne.
“Dangerous marine conditions will continue to worsen as winds work to build seas through the day today,” the NWS stated in its Monday morning forecast discussion. “These winds and building seas will make beach conditions hazardous, creating choppy surf, life threatening rip currents, and providing a growing concern for beach erosion later today and tonight.”
Peak winds in east Central Florida are expected to begin Wednesday night and continue into Thursday.
“Squalls ahead of and during the storm`s passage could produce wind gusts in excess of 50-60 mph across coastal communities, with up to around 35-50 mph well inland,” the forecast said. “In addition, storm total rainfall accumulations are expected to reach 4-6 inches along the coast and even reaching the St Johns River in Brevard County, 3-4 inches for much of the rest of the area, and 2-3 inches for northern Lake County and areas west of Florida’s Turnpike, with locally higher amounts possible.”
The NHC will issue its next intermediate advisory at 8 a.m.
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Yeah, but it looks to be pretty minor by the time it gets to us - I hope.
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Right.
I had always thought wind was the reason for evacuation rather than flooding. At Fort Wilderness. Given the inland location rather than being on a coastal location.
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me too, sorry for the confusion (WL cabins)
I think they evac for flooding in some instances too… ??? not at WDW???
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I think you’re likely right about hopefully the wind damage potentially being minor by the time it gets to you. The rainfall potential is probably the bigger concern. If water tables are still high from Ian, it could mean flooding happens that seems disproportionate to the rainfall (and possibly more rapidly than people would expect).
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Flooding evacuations are generally going to be along the coast (storm surge) and in the lower lying areas along all the drainage basins.
For the cabins at FW and the bungalows at the Poly, they are likely going to evacuate those for any significant severe weather because they won’t want guests isolated from the main building and potentially have to send CM out in the weather to provide assistance. I think WDW drainage had historically been sufficient that flooding isn’t an issue for those?
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Definitely storm surge. I seem to recall someone who’s house was in a low lying area so the road was always under water with any kind of big rain. I think they were responsible for their own evacuation decisions.
All our close central FL relatives are gone except one who now lives in Ocala. I’ve not heard anything about flooding there tho high winds did blow some trees over onto a screened area a couple years ago. Ocala seems a little higher than the [previously swamp] area around WDW. 
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Ok now, batter up
The National Hurricane Center has issued a hurricane watch for Florida’s east coast from the Brevard-Volusia county line south to Hallandale Beach as Subtropical Storm Nicole formed Monday morning in the Atlantic Ocean with a projected path predicted to bring it toward the state by Wednesday night as hurricane.
As of 10 a.m. EST (11 a.m. AST), the system was located about 495 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph moving northwest at 9 mph. It’s expected to slow down its forward speed later Monday and begin a west to west-southwest push from Tuesday to Thursday.
“On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday, move near or over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida by Wednesday night.,” said the NHC advisory.
11am AST Monday, November 7 Key Messages for Subtropical Storm #Nicole.
Hurricane & Storm Surge Watches have been issued for the east coast of Florida, and the Tropical Storm Watch has been changed to a Hurricane Watch for the NW Bahamas.
Latest: http://hurricanes.gov/#Nicole pic.twitter.com/9wkF370eMr
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) November 7, 2022
The hurricane watch also was issued for Lake Okeechobee inland with a tropical storm watch from the Brevard-Volusia county line north to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. A storm surge watch is also in effect for Altamaha Sound, Georgia south to Hallandale Beach, Florida. The government of the Bahamas has also placed the northwestern Bahamas under a hurricane watch.
While classified now as subtropical with a massive wind field with 40 mph winds out as far as 275 miles, the forecast predicts it will transition to a tropical system with a more defined eye with higher wind speeds around the eye at the center of its circulation.
The latest advisory predicts it will become a hurricane while over the Bahamas on Wednesday night on its way to Florida with 75 mph winds and gusts up to 90 mph.
“Regardless on the ultimate intensity of Nicole, the storm’s large size due to an enhanced pressure gradient north of the storm will likely cause significant wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts over a large portion of the northwestern Bahamas, Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States during much of the upcoming week.
The five-day forecast shows a path that could have it making landfall somewhere between Miami and Brevard County, and then traveling northwest across the state south of Orlando and out into the Gulf of Mexico north of Tampa Bay on Thursday, then shifting Friday and getting pulled back to the northeast up into the southern U.S.
The NHC defines a subtropical cyclone as similar to a tropical system, meaning a low-pressure system with a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center with some deep convection. But its winds will be spread out much farther with less symmetry than the dense centers of a tropical storm, and will have cooler upper-level temperatures in its core. Tropical systems gain much of their energy from warm waters that are sucked up through the center into the atmosphere while subtropical systems get most of their energy from “baroclinic” sources, meaning they mix with a neighboring high or low pressure system and trade off temperature and pressure in an attempt to equalize.
Since it has yet to become a tropical system, its path and intensity are less predictable, according to the NHC, and the five-day cone stretches from south of Miami all the way up to it not even making landfall, but off the coast of Daytona Beach before it gets pulled back to the northeast.
“There are still several scenarios that could play out with the track of this system. It could move inland across portions of the Florida peninsula,” said Michael Brennan, the NHC’s acting deputy director as the system was still forming on Sunday. “It could turn northward near or along the east coast of Florida, or it could remain just offshore and move more toward the Georgia and Carolina coasts. As we get through the next several days, that will come into better focus, but again as this system is still developing, the uncertainty and the exact details of how it’s going to move and evolve are going to be relatively high.”
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Subtropical Storm Nicole’s five-day chance for tropical-storm-force winds as of 7 a.m. EST (8 a.m. AST) on Monday, Nov. 7, 2022. (National Hurricane Center)
No matter the path, its reach could bring the risk of dangerous storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall.
“We could see the potential for higher-end impacts, dangerous storm surge, potential for winds, strong tropical-storm-force damaging winds … even up to hurricane-force potentially if this system does go on and become a hurricane, and again heavy rainfall that could track with or near the core of that storm if it goes on and develops those tropical characteristics,” Brennan said.
For now, the Bahamas could see as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal storm surge while also experiencing 2 to 4 inches of rain with some areas seeing up to 6 inches through Thursday.
The NHC said Florida’s coast from North Palm Beach north into Georgia including the St. Johns River could see 3 to 5 feet of storm surge, with 2 tp 4 feet south of North Palm down to Hallandale Beach.
Florida’s massive swath of damage from September’s Hurricane Ian left much of central part of the state flooded from Ian’s heavy rains including around the St. Johns River. More rain dumped from this system could stress water tables that are still coming down since the hurricane, and could lead to more flooding, according to the National Weather Service in Melbourne.
“Dangerous marine conditions will continue to worsen as winds work to build seas through the day today,” the NWS stated in its Monday morning forecast discussion. “These winds and building seas will make beach conditions hazardous, creating choppy surf, life threatening rip currents, and providing a growing concern for beach erosion later today and tonight.”
Peak winds in east Central Florida are expected to begin Wednesday night and continue into Thursday.
“Squalls ahead of and during the storm`s passage could produce wind gusts in excess of 50-60 mph across coastal communities, with up to around 35-50 mph well inland,” the forecast said. “In addition, storm total rainfall accumulations are expected to reach 4-6 inches along the coast and even reaching the St Johns River in Brevard County, 3-4 inches for much of the rest of the area, and 2-3 inches for northern Lake County and areas west of Florida’s Turnpike, with locally higher amounts possible.”
Gov. Ron DeSantis said state emergency officials are in contact will all 67 of the state’s counties to identify potential resource gaps and enact plans for the state to respond quickly and efficiently to the system.
“I encourage all Floridians to be prepared and make a plan in the event a storm impacts Florida,” he said in a press release.
The release reminded Floridians “to know if they live in an evacuation zone, a low-lying, flood-prone area, a mobile home or an unsafe structure during hurricane season. It is also very important for residents to know their home and its ability to withstand strong winds and heavy rain.”
The NHC will issue its next intermediate advisory at 1 p.m. EST with the next updated path prediction at 4 p.m. EST.
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Well, shoot. We’re supposed to be traveling through Georgia on Saturday and staying in Tifton. If the storm stays on this projected track, hopefully the bulk of the bad weather will be gone by late afternoon Saturday, but I’m concerned about power outages. I just made a backup reservation for a hotel in Tallahassee in case we need to drive down through Alabama completely instead of crossing into Georgia. I’ll need to decide which route for sure by mid afternoon on Friday in order to cancel on of the hotels
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Good planning! For awhile in 2019 it looked as tho we and Dorian were going to arrive together. He came close a couple days after we got there.
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Well, I am a liner, and planning is what we do! 
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