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Tropical Outlook 2 p.m. 9/20/22 (The National Hurricane Ce)
As Hurricane Fiona exits the Caribbean, island residents and Floridians now turn their attention to a new tropical threat.
On Tuesday morning, the National Hurricane Center upped the odds of a tropical wave becoming the next named storm before the end of the week, the NHC said.
“We are expecting it to become a tropical depression as it makes its way into the Caribbean Sea,” Michael Brenan, the deputy director of the NHC. “The shower and thunderstorm activity has gotten better organized since yesterday and it’s moving quickly to the west.”
11 AM EDT Tue: Satellite data indicate that the tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands has become better organized. Additional development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days. http://hurricanes.gov pic.twitter.com/MdAKr39FYH
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) September 20, 2022
The wave emerged Monday afternoon and has an 80% chance of developing in the next five days, as well as a 60% chance in the next two days. A tropical depression is likely to form by the end of this week. But for now, the wave is a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands and is moving west at 15-20 mph while producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Also, a second tropical wave is predicted to emerge off the west coast of Africa in the next two days. The NHC gave it a 20% chance of formation in the next five days.
“Interests in the Windward Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system as heavy rainfall and gusty winds could affect these islands beginning on Wednesday,” said Lisa Bucci, an NHC specialist.
Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 8 formed Tuesday morning a thousand miles west-southwest of the Azores with maximum winds of 35 mph, the NHC said at 11 a.m. The depression is moving north at 10 mph over warm water and is expected to become the eighth named storm later today.
As the storm pushes northeast toward the end of the week it is expected to encounter cold water and wind shear. As a result, it should become an extratropical storm by Saturday.
The next three names on the hurricane center’s list are Gaston, Hermine, and Ian.
Last week, Colorado State University issued a two-week forecast and called for a 50% chance of above-average activity in the tropics, as well as a 40% chance of normal activity and a 10% chance of below-average. Hurricane season is in the middle of its “peak,” or the time of the year the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration observes the highest frequency of tropical storms.
In August, the NOAA issued a forecast calling for a season of above-average activity.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Fiona became the first major hurricane of the season Tuesday morning with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph. The NHC predicted Fiona may power up again, this time to Category 4 strength with wind speeds of 140 mph.
). Is it worse if it comes from a certain direction @4ljs ? Here it has to do with orientation of landfall and the coast but islands are sort of all coast so I’m not sure how to correlate that?
