What are your dates? I’m heading down for a week starting this weekend and taking notice of this storm for sure.
Hurricane Fiona, the first major hurricane of the season, may not be headed toward Florida, but the power it emits may have a dangerous effect on the Sunshine State’s beaches, the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday afternoon. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Gaston formed in the Atlantic and another system approaching the Caribbean could become the next tropical depression.
As Fiona gains power in the Atlantic, it’s generating huge swells of 50-foot waves near its center, said NHC deputy director Michael Brennan. A moderate risk of rip currents is in effect from South Florida and up to the Carolinas as well as portions of New England, Brennan said.
“As those waves propagate toward the U.S. East Coast, they’re going to result in dangerous surf and wind current conditions,” Brennan said. “If you’re planning to go to the beach look for any warning flags and pay attention to any advice given by lifeguards or local officials. We don’t want to lose people in the ocean from a storm passing.”
#Fiona remains a strong Category 3 hurricane this morning and is forecast to reach Category 4 on Wed. In response, Fiona’s #wind field will expand tremendously by late Wed night, creating perilous sea conditions. Large swell will cause dangerous #surf and #ripcurrents. pic.twitter.com/uZK1WJZRO7
— NHC_TAFB (@NHC_TAFB) September 20, 2022
For now, Fiona isn’t quite finished with the Caribbean and is hammering the Turks and Caicos with storm surge 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels. While also hitting Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic with residual rain after barreling through the island territories with heavy rain. Parts of the Dominican Republic were inundated with 20 inches of rain. Puerto Rico received a historic 30 inches, Brennan said.
However, Fiona is starting to move northward away from the islands. The storm is headed out to the warm Atlantic where it is predicted to become a powerful Category 4 hurricane.
As of the NHC’s 5 p.m. advisory Fiona remains a powerful major Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 115 mph and higher gusts located about 50 miles north of North Caicos Island and 795 miles southwest of Bermuda heading north-northwest at 8 mph.
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Hurricane Fiona cone of uncertainty as of 5 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 20, 2022. (National Hurricane Center)
A tropical storm watch for Bermuda was issued late Tuesday while the Turks and Caicos remain under a hurricane warning and the southeastern Bahamas under a tropical storm warning.
The system is expected to gain in strength as it heads north to Category 4 status with 140 mph sustained winds and 165 mph gusts by Thursday before passing to the west of Bermuda. It’s projected to threaten landfall in Canada in Nova Scotia as an extratropical system with hurricane-strength winds by Saturday.
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We go next weekend. Hopefully we are both ok!
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I sure hope so!
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I saw that and wondered what was with the side step. “No one storms like Gaston”
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While massive Hurricane Fiona and Tropical Storm Gaston churn in the Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center is tracking three more systems with potential development including one likely to become the next tropical depression within days headed toward the Caribbean.
As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the tropical wave located a couple hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands is producing shower and thunderstorm activity with continued signs of organization.
“It will likely become a tropical depression within the next couple of days,” said NHC hurricane specialist Lisa Bucci. “The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the southern Windward Islands today and then move toward the central Caribbean Sea later this week.”
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The tropical outlook as of 8 a.m. Wednesday, Sept. 21, 2022. (National Hurricane Center)
Heavy rainfall and winds are expected on the southern Leewards and could bring more to Aruba, Bonaire, Curaçao, northwestern Venezuela and northeastern Colombia later this week, she said.
The system has a 70% chance to form within two days and 90% chance in the next five.
If it grows further, it could become Tropical Storm Hermine.
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Long-term forecast storm models for investigation 98 that could become a tropical depression as of Wednesday, Sept. 21, 2022. (NOAA)
Many long-term weather forecast models show the system curling toward the north in the central Caribbean by next week with some having it pass over Cuba and becoming a potential threat to the Florida peninsula.
The other two potential systems are farther east in the Atlantic including one located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands that could see slow development over the next several days as it moves northwestward and then westward over the tropical Atlantic. The NHC gives it a 20% chance to form in the next two days and 30% in the next five.
The other is off the west coast of Africa projected to move slowly to the north between the African coast and the Cabo Verde Islands. The NHC gives it a 20% chance to form in the next two days and 50% chance to form in the next five days.
Whichever system gets to sustained winds of 39 mph or more would take the name Hermine with the next names on the hurricane list being Ian and Julia.
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Hurricane Fiona cone of uncertainty as of 8 a.m. Wednesday, Sept. 21, 2022. (National Hurricane Center)
Of the two named systems already, Hurricane Fiona continues to intensify as it moves north away from the Turks and Caicos islands in the Atlantic, now a Category 4 hurricane.
As of 8 a.m. the center of the hurricane was located about 700 miles southwest of Bermuda with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph moving north at 8 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend out up to 45 miles with tropical-storm-force winds extending out 160 miles.
An infrared view of #HurricaneFiona this morning via the #GOESEast
shows the well-defined eye of this Category 4 storm.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda as #Fiona moves northward.
Latest: http://hurricanes.gov pic.twitter.com/YBSU34MCKt
— NOAA Satellites (@NOAASatellites) September 21, 2022
A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch is in place for Bermuda as the system is expected to grow in strength to as much as 140 mph sustained winds with 165 mph gusts. The projected path, though, takes the center to the west of the island as it speeds up heading for Canada.
The storm is expected to lose some force, but remain a Category 4 hurricane as it makes potential landfall in Nova Scotia on Saturday before transitioning to an extratropical storm.
The system left catastrophic rains as it carved its way over the northern Leewards killing one person in the French overseas territory of Guadeloupe, then dumping as much as 30 inches of rain over Puerto Rico, where it’s been blamed for two deaths, and as much as 20 inches on the Dominican Republic where one death has been reported. The deluge has flooded much of the islands damaging roads while the winds took out power for all of Puerto Rico over the weekend.
The Associated Press reported that by late Tuesday, authorities said they had restored power to nearly 380,000 of the island’s 1.47 million customers. Piped water service was initially knocked out for most of the Island’s users due to lack of power and turbid water at filtration plants, but 55% had service Wednesday morning.
While not a threat to Florida, the swells from Fiona that were reaching wave heights close to 50 feet high on Monday are spreading to the west and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions on the U.S. East Coast including Florida as well as the Bahamas.
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Tropical Storm Gaston cone of uncertainty as of 5 a.m. Wednesday, Sept. 21, 2022. (National Hurricane Center)
The other named system, Tropical Storm Gaston, formed Tuesday in the northern mid-Atlantic.
As of 5 a.m. Wednesday, Gaston was located about 850 miles of the Azores islands with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph moving northeast at 16 mph.
While the system is projected to grow to near hurricane strength, Gaston is not expected to threaten land before transitioning to an extratropical system after the weekend.
Since Sept. 1, the tropics have begun to play catchup churning out four named storms in three weeks after nearly two months of quiet.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in early August updated its season prediction that 2022 would still be above-average with 14 to 21 named storms, although not a single named storm formed in the month of August.
The 2020 hurricane season set a record with 30 named systems, while 2021′s season was the third most active with 21 named systems. An average year calls for 14 named storms.
Through Gaston, 2022 has produced seven named systems.
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We are getting a lot of rain right now anyway. I’m only 
ing this as thanks for your contribution to the thread 
b/c I can’t a possible hurricane coming to my town 
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It’s weird to see it forecasted as category 3 when it’s parallel to New England. 
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While not a threat to Florida, the swells from Fiona that were reaching wave heights close to 50 feet high on Tuesday are spreading to the west and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions on the U.S. East Coast including Florida as well as the Bahamas.
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This sucks. I don’t want it to hit Texas. Or Florida. Or Louisiana or Alabama or Mississippi. And Mexico certainly doesn’t need it either. 
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Same. 
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I’m from Houston, had planned a crazy 22 hour trip to Orlando for moonlight magic on Wednesday evening. Now, I dont know what to do. It seems like its either going to hit Texas- and I might get stuck in Orlando flying back or have chaos soon as I come home. Or it hits Florida and we deal with the craziest trip (as if it wasnt crazy enough being so short). I didnt purchase tickets till Sunday because i was monitoring the weather, then suddenly 2 days later there’s a hurricane coming 
Does anyone know if Disney is nice about rescheduling a hotel room? I’m now within the 6 day cancellation window for room-only booking.
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I think you have until 5 days to cancel but they are very accommodating when it comes to rescheduling; just give them a call 
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I get it. We are flying in next weekend (from MD) for my 50th bday trip. I keep watching all the updates which say late next week it could hit FL or TX. My cancellation day is Monday so hopefully we get some clarity by then. The storm needs to decide where its going, and I wish it wouldn’t hit anywhere. We’d try to do a backup trip somewhere else, but on short notice, everything is probably already booked or very expensive.
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They say it’s too soon to say how it will impact or if it will impact FL
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Our locals all are very uncertain but currently leaning towards “central or eastern Gulf of Mexico” largely based on historical paths at this time of year.
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