High likelihood she’ll become Fiona overnight. Path very uncertain right now. 
^ These are past September storms along a similar path
I just wanted to say Thanks for keeping this thread updated—it has been good to be I the know this year. I have a tendency to travel to Florida in the middle of hurricane season every year completely forgetting this as a consideration until one particular “oh sh**” moment when I remember this could impact everything.
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Tropical Storm Fiona cone of uncertainty as of 11 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 17, 2022. (National Hurricane Center)
Storm surge and a deluge from Tropical Storm Fiona plagued the Caribbean island of Guadeloupe with at least two people reportedly washed away by rising waters as the system threatened Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands on Saturday.
Fiona strengthened Friday evening after it passed into the northeastern Caribbean Sea, according the National Hurricane Center, and could gain hurricane strength by Monday.
As of 8 a.m. Saturday, the NHC said Fiona was maintaining 60 mph winds with higher gusts. The system grew in strength after passing by the northern Leeward Islands. Its center was located about 145 miles southeast of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands moving west at 13 mph.
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This infrared radar shows Tropical Storm Fiona on Saturday, Sept. 17, 2022. (NOAA - GOES-East)
Its tropical-storm-force winds extend out 125 miles.
Torrential rain left behind heavy road damage on Guadeloupe with video on Twitter showing fast-moving floods flowing down streets up to washed out roads and streets flooded up to 2 feet washing away cars.
Projected rainfall had been more than 8 inches in some parts of the island.
Government officials with the French overseas department said two people were missing swept away by rising waters overnight.
“On the forecast track, the center of Fiona is expected to move near or just south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today through Sunday, and approach the southern or eastern coast of the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday,” said NHC hurricane specialist Brad Reinhart.
Already under a tropical storm warning, hurricane watches were issued for Puerto Rico as well as for parts of the Dominican Republic.
Warnings remain in place for the U.S. Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, St. Martin and parts of the Dominican Republic.
The system’s updated path forecasts it to travel away from Florida, while gaining hurricane strength ahead of landfall on the Dominican Republic on the island of Hispaniola. It’s expected to keep hurricane strength as a Category 1 system with 75 mph winds and gusts up to 90 mph as it passes over the island, approaching the Turks and Caicos and threatening the southern Bahamas early next week.
The threat of heavy rains and possible flooding faces many of the islands with as much as 16 inches in Puerto Rico and 12 inches in the Dominican Republic possible.
Saturday’s new five-day forecast has it curving even more to the north and into the Atlantic Ocean, and gaining strength as a Category 2 system by Wednesday with 90 mph sustained winds.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, a tropical wave was detected Thursday midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles islands. The weather system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and is predicted to slowly develop late this weekend and early next week when it turns northward over the central subtropical Atlantic. The NHC gives it a 20% of forming in the five days.
Also, the NHC has dropped chances of formation to 0% for a frontal low over the western Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles west-northwest of Bermuda, which emerged Friday morning.
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The tropical outlook as of 8 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 17, 2022. (National Hurricane Center)
Despite the low chances, their emergence coincides with Colorado State University’s release of its tropical prediction for the next two weeks, saying the tropics could get much busier with a 50% chance of above-average activity taking place. CSU also gave a 40% chance of normal activity taking place and a 10% chance of below-average activity.
Fiona could become the season’s third hurricane following hurricanes Daniella and Earl earlier this month.
What had been forecast to be an above average tropical season was mostly quiet in July and August before picking up steam on Sept. 1.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.
models:
It’s not coming to FL but Hurricanes can also change directions
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Tropical Storm Fiona cone of uncertainty as of 8 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 18, 2022. (National Hurricane Center)
Tropical Storm Fiona intensified overnight expected to become a hurricane later today as it moves just south of Puerto Rico bringing torrential rain up to 25 inches to some parts of the island.
As of 8 a.m., the National Hurricane Center advisory said its center was located about 65 miles south-southeast of Ponce, Puerto Rico with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph moving west-northwest at 8 mph.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles with Sunday morning gusts tracked at Puerto Rican weather stations close to 55 mph.
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This visible radar image shows Tropical Storm Fiona moving near Puerto Rico on Sunday, Sept. 18, 2022. (NOAA - GOES-East)
“On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will approach Puerto Rico this morning, and move near or over Puerto Rico this afternoon or evening.” said NHC hurricane specialist Brad Reinhart. “Fiona will then move near the northern coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday, and near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday.”
Hurricane warnings are in effect for Puerto Rico and parts of the Dominican Republic with hurricane watches in place for the U.S. Virgin Islands. Tropical storm warnings remain in place for the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, more of the Dominican Republic and a tropical storm watch is in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas.
Here are the 5 AM AST 9/18 Key Messages for Tropical Storm #Fiona. For more information, visit: http://hurricanes.gov pic.twitter.com/c6rp0qsjD5
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) September 18, 2022
The system’s intense rain continues to fall over both the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, but now moving over Puerto Rico and expected to begin affecting the Dominican Republic by the end of the day, the NHC stated.
“These rainfall amounts will produce life-threatening flash floods and urban flooding across Puerto Rico and portions of the eastern Dominican Republic, along with mudslides and landslides in areas of higher terrain,” Reinhart said.
It’s expected to drop 12 to 16 inches over the entire island with some areas up to 25 inches.
“It’s time to take action and be concerned,” said Nino Correa, Puerto Rico’s emergency management commissioner.
The storm was forecast to pummel cities and towns along Puerto Rico’s southern coast that are still recovering from a string of strong earthquakes that hit the region starting in late 2019, with several schools still shuttered and debris to be removed. More than 100 people had sought shelter across the island by Saturday night, the majority of them in the southern coastal city of Guayanilla.
Absolutely, always be vigilant. But our local people are becoming more and more confident of the track. Because there’s a huge high pressure system camped out over Texas bringing record heat over the next week. 
Fiona just strengthened to hurricane status. Keep the people of Puerto Rico in your thoughts today, everyone. Lots of 
.
Yes, a friend that lives in PR is getting blasted with heavy rain right now.
All of Puerto Rico has lost power. 
This is SO sad b/c I don’t believe they ever fully recovered from Maria.
We’re looking at planned closures from Thursday and nobody’s discounting a direct hit on Friday. Time to refill the tub!
hope it’s mild for y’all!
