So. DH and I were trying to plan a last minute trip for Monday-Thurs next week. We have several places we could go, but also have UOR APs and flight points. I was able to get RPR at Universal for $244 per night but Iâm now worried about whether the weather (see what I did there?) would affect flights as well as rainfall in Orlando. Those darn spaghetti models make it too hard to tell right now, but I have to cancel by tomorrow to not be charged one night. Also, DH had wanted to go to Turks & Caicos (I went last month on a girls trip and loved it!) and itâs not much longer flying time for us than Orlando. A short trip would be lovely. But thereâs that pesky tropical storm/hurricane possibility for there as well. We could drive to the beach in our own state (MD) but a storm in the Atlantic may make high surf/rip currents and weâve been there so so many times. I think I had been lulled into a so- far mild hurricane season.
He can get off work again at the beginning of October. Still hurricane season and I havenât been able to find as cheap of hotel rates anywhere. But, that date is only a few days past my bday (50!) so that might be nice.
Since none of you (I think) are meteorologists, Iâm sure you canât help. But, what would you do?!
The weather is SO unpredictable⌠as you know 
Hurricane season is June 1 to Nov 30, w/ heaviest activity in September. It has been remarkably quiet so far. We are supposed to fly out of Orlando on 9/7 and I am hoping the weather cooperates. I say, think about what you really really want and know that temps donât start to really cool down until mid November.
Will you do a trip report? I havenât been to Hawaii in, letâs see, almost 20 years now. I know you donât post photos, but I would love to see the scenery!!
I think you are the 2nd or 3rd person to ask, so I guess I must It will be a bit different that last year.
Yep, you must.
WaitâŚdifferent than last year? If there is another, please provide a link.
Off to read 
Enjoyed the read and the photos!! I canât wait to follow along this time!!
Thanks. Iâll do my best
If that turns into a hurricane when would it likely hit land or is it too soon to tell? Iâm getting nervous. My trip starts this Sunday 4-11.
I watched a video. Looks like too soon to tell. A cold front could send it back to sea.
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The tropical outlook as of 2 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 30, 2022. (National Hurricane Center)
The Atlantic has two weather systems Tuesday with potential to become the next tropical depression or storm of the season, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The first is a broad and elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. It is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, according to the NHCâs 2 p.m. tropical outlook.
âAlthough environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, some gradual development of this system is expected over the next several days and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week or this weekend,â said hurricane specialist Brad Reinhart.
Aug 29th - A broad area of ow pressure in the central #Atlantic has a high chance of development over the next 5 days. Fresh to strong easterly #winds in the northern quadrant & #seas of 8-11 ft are expected through midweek. More at http://hurricanes.gov/marine #GOESEast #marinewx pic.twitter.com/fYXLm9Gpfe
â NHC_TAFB (@NHC_TAFB) August 29, 2022
The system is expected to move west then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph in an area adjacent to the northern Leeward Islands. NASA officials noted its potential path that has to consider the tropical threat now that the Artemis I rocket missed its Monday opportunity to launch from Kennedy Space Center. Its next flight opportunities are during windows on Friday, Sept. 2 and Monday, Sept. 5.
The NHC gives this system a 50% chance of forming into a tropical depression or storm in the next two days and an 80% chance in the next five.
The second system is a tropical wave off the west coast of Africa that emerged Tuesday morning, which is accompanied by a broad area of low-pressure forecast to move west to west-northwest in the next few days.
âSome gradual development is possible, and the system could become a short-lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic during the next few days,â Reinhart said. âBy late this week, environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for further development.
Either way, the system could bring heavy rain to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands by Wednesday.
The NHC gives it a 20% chance of formation in the next two days and a 40% chance in the next five.
If any of the systems form into a named tropical storm, it would become Tropical Storm Danielle. After that, the hurricane seasonâs names are Earl, Fiona and Gaston.
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Tropical outlook 8 a.m. update 8/31/22 (The National )
Much like a pressure cooker, the Atlantic basin is cooking several weather systems and storm models keep raising their odds of developing into the next tropical depression or storm. According to the National Hurricane Centerâs 8 a.m. update, all three systems have medium to high chances of becoming the next named storm, which would be Danielle.
The first is a broad and elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. It is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The system has a 60% chance of forming into a tropical depression or storm in the next two days and an 80% chance in the next five.
âAdditional gradual development of this system is expected and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days,â said Lisa Bucci, an NHC specialist.
Regardless of development, the system is expected to move west then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph adjacent to the northern Leeward Islands, which could create problems for NASAâs next attempt at launching Artemis I. NASA officials noted the systemâs potential path could be a threat to a Saturday launch after the Artemis I rocket missed its Monday opportunity to blast off from Kennedy Space Center. Its next flight opportunities are during windows on Saturday, Sept. 3, and Monday, Sept. 5.
The second system is a tropical wave off the west coast of Africa that emerged Tuesday morning and is accompanied by a broad area of low-pressure forecast to move west to west-northwest in the next few days.
âSome gradual development is possible, and the system could become a short-lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic during the next few days,â Bucci said. âBy late this week, environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for further development.
Either way, the system could bring heavy rain to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands by Wednesday. The NHC gives it a 40% chance of formation in the next two days and a 50% chance in the next five.
A third system was identified Tuesday evening over the central subtropical Atlantic, about 850 miles west-southwest of the westernmost Azores. The NHC has since raised its odds of becoming a tropical depression or storm Wednesday morning to 60% in the next two days and a 70% chance in the next five.
The system is forecasted to drift eastward and is expected to form an area of low pressure that could potentially turn into a tropical or subtropical development.
If any of the systems form into a named tropical storm, it would become Tropical Storm Danielle. After that, the hurricane seasonâs names are Earl, Fiona, and Gaston.
Looks like most agree the spaghetti will head west
Hey⌠maybe swimming is off the table for so. FL right now: Health advisory for six beaches in south Florida (msn.com)
At least the turn is supposed to happen well before it approaches the east coast, so that gives lots of space if the turn is late.
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2 p.m. 8/31/22 Wednesday tropical outlook (The National Hurricane Center)
After weeks of no tropical depressions or storms, the Atlantic is highly likely to see the emergence of the fourth named storm of the year this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Meteorologists are tracking three weather systems with two having high chances of becoming tropical depressions in the next two days, according to the 2 p.m. Wednesday outlook. The third system has a medium chance of also becoming a tropical depression this weekend.
The first system with high chances is a broad and elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. A hurricane hunter aircraft found little has changed in the systemâs organization since Tuesday, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The system is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, said Lisa Bucci, an NHC specialist. The system has a 60% chance of forming into a tropical depression or storm in the next two days and an 80% chance in the next five.
Hurricane season is heating up! NHC is monitoring 3 areas for tropical development during the next 5 days in the Atlantic basin. See here for details: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 pic.twitter.com/VFbas84xIN
â National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 31, 2022
âAdditional gradual development of this system is expected and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days,â Bucci said.
The systemâs development could pose a problem for NASAâs plans to launch its Artemis I rocket Saturday. NASA officials noted the systemâs potential path could be a threat to a Saturday launch after Artemis missed its Monday opportunity to blast off from Kennedy Space Center due to a fuel leak. Its next flight opportunities are during windows on Saturday and Monday.
The second system the NHC is tracking is an area of low pressure that has been rapidly improving its signs of organization about 850 miles west-southwest of the westernmost Azores, the Bucci said.
âEnvironmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so, while the system drifts generally eastward,â Bucci said.
The NHC raised its odds of becoming a tropical depression or storm Wednesday afternoon to 70% in the next two days and an 80% chance in the next five.
Additionally, the NHC is tracking a broad area of low-pressure northeast of the Cabo Verde islands. The system has developed gradually and could become a tropical depression in a couple of days. However, the Atlantic environment will become very hostile for the tropical system after its possible formation. Either way, the system could bring heavy rain to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands by Wednesday. The NHC gives it a 40% chance of formation in the next two days and a 50% chance in the next five.
If any of the systems form into a named tropical storm, it would become Tropical Storm Danielle. After that, the hurricane seasonâs names are Earl, Fiona, and Gaston.
The 2022 hurricane season has had only three named storms and none since early July. Itâs possible the season could go the entire month of August without a named system. Despite the recent silence in the tropics, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration still predicts an above-average year with 14 to 21 named storms as of an early August forecast.
The 2020 hurricane season set a record with 30 named systems, while 2021â˛s season was the third most active with 21 named systems. An average year calls for 14 named storms.
The hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, with the traditional peak of hurricane season running from mid-August to mid-October.
