me too, sorry for the confusion (WL cabins)
I think they evac for flooding in some instances too… ??? not at WDW???
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I think you’re likely right about hopefully the wind damage potentially being minor by the time it gets to you. The rainfall potential is probably the bigger concern. If water tables are still high from Ian, it could mean flooding happens that seems disproportionate to the rainfall (and possibly more rapidly than people would expect).
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Flooding evacuations are generally going to be along the coast (storm surge) and in the lower lying areas along all the drainage basins.
For the cabins at FW and the bungalows at the Poly, they are likely going to evacuate those for any significant severe weather because they won’t want guests isolated from the main building and potentially have to send CM out in the weather to provide assistance. I think WDW drainage had historically been sufficient that flooding isn’t an issue for those?
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Definitely storm surge. I seem to recall someone who’s house was in a low lying area so the road was always under water with any kind of big rain. I think they were responsible for their own evacuation decisions.
All our close central FL relatives are gone except one who now lives in Ocala. I’ve not heard anything about flooding there tho high winds did blow some trees over onto a screened area a couple years ago. Ocala seems a little higher than the [previously swamp] area around WDW. 
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Ok now, batter up
The National Hurricane Center has issued a hurricane watch for Florida’s east coast from the Brevard-Volusia county line south to Hallandale Beach as Subtropical Storm Nicole formed Monday morning in the Atlantic Ocean with a projected path predicted to bring it toward the state by Wednesday night as hurricane.
As of 10 a.m. EST (11 a.m. AST), the system was located about 495 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph moving northwest at 9 mph. It’s expected to slow down its forward speed later Monday and begin a west to west-southwest push from Tuesday to Thursday.
“On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday, move near or over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida by Wednesday night.,” said the NHC advisory.
11am AST Monday, November 7 Key Messages for Subtropical Storm #Nicole.
Hurricane & Storm Surge Watches have been issued for the east coast of Florida, and the Tropical Storm Watch has been changed to a Hurricane Watch for the NW Bahamas.
Latest: http://hurricanes.gov/#Nicole pic.twitter.com/9wkF370eMr
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) November 7, 2022
The hurricane watch also was issued for Lake Okeechobee inland with a tropical storm watch from the Brevard-Volusia county line north to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. A storm surge watch is also in effect for Altamaha Sound, Georgia south to Hallandale Beach, Florida. The government of the Bahamas has also placed the northwestern Bahamas under a hurricane watch.
While classified now as subtropical with a massive wind field with 40 mph winds out as far as 275 miles, the forecast predicts it will transition to a tropical system with a more defined eye with higher wind speeds around the eye at the center of its circulation.
The latest advisory predicts it will become a hurricane while over the Bahamas on Wednesday night on its way to Florida with 75 mph winds and gusts up to 90 mph.
“Regardless on the ultimate intensity of Nicole, the storm’s large size due to an enhanced pressure gradient north of the storm will likely cause significant wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts over a large portion of the northwestern Bahamas, Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States during much of the upcoming week.
The five-day forecast shows a path that could have it making landfall somewhere between Miami and Brevard County, and then traveling northwest across the state south of Orlando and out into the Gulf of Mexico north of Tampa Bay on Thursday, then shifting Friday and getting pulled back to the northeast up into the southern U.S.
The NHC defines a subtropical cyclone as similar to a tropical system, meaning a low-pressure system with a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center with some deep convection. But its winds will be spread out much farther with less symmetry than the dense centers of a tropical storm, and will have cooler upper-level temperatures in its core. Tropical systems gain much of their energy from warm waters that are sucked up through the center into the atmosphere while subtropical systems get most of their energy from “baroclinic” sources, meaning they mix with a neighboring high or low pressure system and trade off temperature and pressure in an attempt to equalize.
Since it has yet to become a tropical system, its path and intensity are less predictable, according to the NHC, and the five-day cone stretches from south of Miami all the way up to it not even making landfall, but off the coast of Daytona Beach before it gets pulled back to the northeast.
“There are still several scenarios that could play out with the track of this system. It could move inland across portions of the Florida peninsula,” said Michael Brennan, the NHC’s acting deputy director as the system was still forming on Sunday. “It could turn northward near or along the east coast of Florida, or it could remain just offshore and move more toward the Georgia and Carolina coasts. As we get through the next several days, that will come into better focus, but again as this system is still developing, the uncertainty and the exact details of how it’s going to move and evolve are going to be relatively high.”
:quality(70)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/tronc/6I7LRMQWZRAC5CG6BAMT2Q3AC4.png)
Subtropical Storm Nicole’s five-day chance for tropical-storm-force winds as of 7 a.m. EST (8 a.m. AST) on Monday, Nov. 7, 2022. (National Hurricane Center)
No matter the path, its reach could bring the risk of dangerous storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall.
“We could see the potential for higher-end impacts, dangerous storm surge, potential for winds, strong tropical-storm-force damaging winds … even up to hurricane-force potentially if this system does go on and become a hurricane, and again heavy rainfall that could track with or near the core of that storm if it goes on and develops those tropical characteristics,” Brennan said.
For now, the Bahamas could see as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal storm surge while also experiencing 2 to 4 inches of rain with some areas seeing up to 6 inches through Thursday.
The NHC said Florida’s coast from North Palm Beach north into Georgia including the St. Johns River could see 3 to 5 feet of storm surge, with 2 tp 4 feet south of North Palm down to Hallandale Beach.
Florida’s massive swath of damage from September’s Hurricane Ian left much of central part of the state flooded from Ian’s heavy rains including around the St. Johns River. More rain dumped from this system could stress water tables that are still coming down since the hurricane, and could lead to more flooding, according to the National Weather Service in Melbourne.
“Dangerous marine conditions will continue to worsen as winds work to build seas through the day today,” the NWS stated in its Monday morning forecast discussion. “These winds and building seas will make beach conditions hazardous, creating choppy surf, life threatening rip currents, and providing a growing concern for beach erosion later today and tonight.”
Peak winds in east Central Florida are expected to begin Wednesday night and continue into Thursday.
“Squalls ahead of and during the storm`s passage could produce wind gusts in excess of 50-60 mph across coastal communities, with up to around 35-50 mph well inland,” the forecast said. “In addition, storm total rainfall accumulations are expected to reach 4-6 inches along the coast and even reaching the St Johns River in Brevard County, 3-4 inches for much of the rest of the area, and 2-3 inches for northern Lake County and areas west of Florida’s Turnpike, with locally higher amounts possible.”
Gov. Ron DeSantis said state emergency officials are in contact will all 67 of the state’s counties to identify potential resource gaps and enact plans for the state to respond quickly and efficiently to the system.
“I encourage all Floridians to be prepared and make a plan in the event a storm impacts Florida,” he said in a press release.
The release reminded Floridians “to know if they live in an evacuation zone, a low-lying, flood-prone area, a mobile home or an unsafe structure during hurricane season. It is also very important for residents to know their home and its ability to withstand strong winds and heavy rain.”
The NHC will issue its next intermediate advisory at 1 p.m. EST with the next updated path prediction at 4 p.m. EST.
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Well, shoot. We’re supposed to be traveling through Georgia on Saturday and staying in Tifton. If the storm stays on this projected track, hopefully the bulk of the bad weather will be gone by late afternoon Saturday, but I’m concerned about power outages. I just made a backup reservation for a hotel in Tallahassee in case we need to drive down through Alabama completely instead of crossing into Georgia. I’ll need to decide which route for sure by mid afternoon on Friday in order to cancel on of the hotels
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Good planning! For awhile in 2019 it looked as tho we and Dorian were going to arrive together. He came close a couple days after we got there.
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Well, I am a liner, and planning is what we do! 
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Well this is interesting and for all those Liners visiting us here in FL feel free to report any of those bastards too 
Florida’s Price Gouging Hotline was activated Monday in 34 counties, including Central Florida, ahead of Subtropical Storm Nicole’s expected arrival later this week.
Floridians can report “severe price increases” on goods needed to prepare for the storm suchas food, gasoline and lumber to 866-9NO-SCAM, a news release said. Violations can also be reported at MyFloridaLegal.com.
Price gouging carries a $1,000 per violation fine and up to $25,000 for multiple violations during the same 24 hours.
“As Subtropical System Nicole approaches the state, Floridians should make preparations now,” said Attorney General Ashley Moody in the release.
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Oh, btw, we were arriving on a Sunday, by then Dorian was forecast to arrive maybe Tuesday.
The east coast was being evacuated so the toll road was free. Going east from 95 it was just us, big trucks and utility companies. Nicest last few miles ever. 
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And is with a Uhaul! We moved here during Dorian 
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How is this different from normal inflation right now?!? 
But seriously, it’s a thing. Report it.
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Subtropical Storm Nicole cone of uncertainty as of 7 a.m. Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022. (National Hurricane Center)
As Subtropical Storm Nicole begins to transition to a tropical storm and strengthen, the potential Category 1 hurricane’s projected path has shifted north with a landfall closer to Brevard County late Wednesday or early Thursday and path that could bring it right over Orlando, according to the National Hurricane Center.
As of the 7 a.m. NHC advisory Tuesday, Nicole is located about 385 miles east-northeast of the northwestern Bahamas and 520 miles east of Melbourne Beach, Florida, up now to 50 mph sustained winds and moving west-northwest at 8 mph. Forecasters expect the storm to turn west and even west-southwest into tonight, then toward the northwest on Thursday.
“Nicole is expected to make a transition to a tropical storm later today and begin strengthening, and it is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength by Wednesday and Wednesday night while it is moving near the northwestern Bahamas and approaching the east coast of Florida,” forecasters said.
:quality(70)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/tronc/ZNHGB5TAKVHL3PPUJVTVB4R7RU.jpg)
This enhanced infrared satellite image shows Subtropical Storm Nicole as of 4 a.m. EST (5 a.m. AST) on Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022. (NOAA - GOES-East)
A subtropical storm gets its energy from the temperature and pressure changes between two large weather systems, which results in a cooler center and higher winds farther away from the core. Nicole’s tropical-storm-force winds extend out to 380 miles. As it moves over warmer water, though, the storm’s center should become more compact with a better defined eye.
The NHC’s cone of uncertainty still has a wide swath, with the storm’s projected forecast to move anywhere as far south as Delray Beach to as far north of just offshore of Jacksonville. The consensus center, though has it approaching southern Brevard County late Wednesday with a landfall after midnight with 75 mph sustained winds and gusts up to 90 mph.
The path could bring it right over metro Orlando as a tropical storm with more than 50 mph sustained winds and 65 mph gusts before it shifts toward the north cutting up toward Gainesville and Tallahassee and into the southern U.S.
The NHC, though, warns of dangers that expand hundreds of miles away from its center.
“Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center, outside of the forecast cone,” the NHC stated. “These hazards are likely to affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast U.S.”
4 am EST Tuesday, November 8 Key Messages for Subtropical Storm #Nicole.https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/085536.shtml?key_messages#contents pic.twitter.com/V40NugL7Uw
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) November 8, 2022
The NHC has kept a hurricane watch in place from the Brevard-Volusia county line south to Hallandale Beach as well as Lake Okeechobee and a tropical storm warning from Hallandale Beach up to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. On Tuesday, the NHC added Florida’s west coast from north of Bonita Beach up to the Ochlockonee River to a tropical storm watch.
Inland tropical storm warnings were issued by the National Weather Service in Melbourne for Brevard, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole and Volusia counties while Marion, Polk and Sumter counties are under a tropical storm watch.
1-minute Mesoscale Sector @NOAASatellites
#GOES16/#GOESeast Visible & Infrared images showed the meandering exposed low-level circulation of #SubtropicalStormNicole southeast of Buoy 41047 - flanked by meager bursts of convection: https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-blog/images/2022/11/221107_goes16_visible_infrared_Subtropical_Storm_Nicole_anim.mp pic.twitter.com/swx3jKGyFr— UW-Madison CIMSS (@UWCIMSS) November 8, 2022
Before Florida, though, the system will move over the northwestern Bahamas. A hurricane warning is in place for the the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini and Grand Bahama Island with a tropical storm warning for the Andros Island, New Providence and Eleuthera.
“Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning across all of the northwestern Bahamas by tonight,” forecasters said. “Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area along the east coast of Florida by Wednesday night with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the west coast of Florida by Wednesday night.”
The NHC’s next intermediate advisory is at 7 a.m. with its next path projection at 10 a.m.
:quality(70)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/tronc/VNGOEV35JVHADILGA3DTBKLWPA.PNG)
Forecast rain for Florida from Subtropical Storm Nicole, from the National Hurricane Center. (National Hurricane Center)
While damaging winds are a concern, Central Florida, which is still draining from the flood damage of September’s Hurricane Ian, can expect more rain from the system. The NHC said Nicole will bring 3 to 5 inches of rain with some areas up to 7 inches across the Florida peninsula. The NWS in Melbourne said Central Florida could see closer to 6 inches of rain across eastern Osceola and Brevard Counties northward across the Saint Johns River basin.
“Urban and poor drainage flooding is increasingly likely, especially where the water table remains high,” the NWS stated. “The combination of heavy rainfall and strong northeast winds could also cause additional flooding and standing water concerns over the Saint Johns River basin, where river flood warnings remain in effect. A flood watch will likely be issued for all of east central Florida later today.”
The coasts of Brevard and Volusia are also subject to 8- to 10-foot waves beginning today growing bigger as the system approaches, the NWS said.
“Numerous life-threatening rip currents will continue. The strong winds and high surf will combine with ongoing high astronomical tides to bring significant storm surge and major beach erosion around the times of the next several high tide cycles from Tuesday through Thursday,” the NWS said. “Coastal areas of Volusia County which suffered serious damage from Hurricane Ian remain particularly vulnerable to additional beach erosion and inundation from coastal flooding.”
The NHC’s storm surge warning indicated from 3 to 5 feet could be seen from North Palm Beach up to Georgia as well as 2-4 feet from the mouth of the St. Johns River inland south to Georgetown, Florida in Putnam County.
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Subtropical Storm Nicole’s wind arrival times as of 4 a.m. EST (5 a.m. AST) on Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022. (National Hurricane Center)
Gov. Ron DeSantis on Monday issued a State of Emergency for 34 counties in the storm’s potential path, including all of Central Florida.
“While this storm does not, at this time, appear that it will become much stronger, I urge all Floridians to be prepared and to listen to announcements from local emergency management officials,” DeSantis said in a press release. “We will continue to monitor the trajectory and strength of this storm as it moves toward Florida.”
Counties in the order are Brevard, Broward, Charlotte, Citrus, Clay, Collier, DeSoto, Duval, Flagler, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Highlands, Hillsborough, Indian River, Lake, Lee, Manatee, Martin, Miami-Dade, Nassau, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pasco, Polk, Putnam, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Johns, St. Lucie, Sumter and Volusia.
[ MAP: Here’s the latest forecast track for Subtropical Storm Nicole ]
“… Regardless of final track or intensity, [Nicole’s] impacts are expected across east Central Florida,” the NWS Melbourne office said in its weather discussion. “Preparations need to be completed prior to Wednesday, as conditions will rapidly deteriorate into Wednesday afternoon. Be sure to stay up to date on the latest forecast and any Watches or Warnings. Those still dealing with the devastating impacts from Hurricane Ian are especially encouraged to make preparations and monitor the forecast.”
Earlier Monday, DeSantis said state emergency officials are in contact will all 67 of the state’s counties to identify potential resource gaps and enact plans for the state to respond quickly and efficiently to the system.
“I encourage all Floridians to be prepared and make a plan in the event a storm impacts Florida,” he said in a press release.
The release reminded Floridians “to know if they live in an evacuation zone, a low-lying, flood-prone area, a mobile home or an unsafe structure during hurricane season. It is also very important for residents to know their home and its ability to withstand strong winds and heavy rain.”
[ Will Subtropical Storm Nicole hit Orlando? ]
One of the counties with severe beachfront damage from Ian was Volusia, and Emergency Director Jim Judge said the winds from the system’s north and east quadrants are a particular threat again.
“We need to take this storm very seriously because it could cause more coastal erosion, which could be devastating to our beachfront properties impacted by Hurricane Ian,” he said. “We’re also looking at rainfall amounts anywhere from of 4 to 8 inches through Friday that could cause flooding, along with tropical-storm-force winds that could cause widespread power outages.”
Seminole County emergency officials on Monday also said they are preparing for Nicole to dump several inches of rain this week, particularly in areas where flood waters from Hurricane Ian just recently began to recede.
“No one wants to hear that, but that is what it looks like as of today,” said Alan Harris, director of Seminole’s office of emergency management. “Each forecast has gotten a little worse for us here.”
The St. Johns River is currently rated at a minor flood stage. But rains from Nicole may swell it to moderate flood stage, county officials said, with as much as 7 to 8 inches of rain in some areas of Seminole.
Harris also said the zig-zag path potential is a concern as it moves over the state.
“A double whammy I guess is certainly a possibility,” he said. “We’ve seen this before in Seminole County — 2008. I am not saying this is going to be Tropical Storm Fay, but the track is the exact opposite but very similar where the storm came over us, made a U-Turn, and then came back over us. This is looking to be very similar to that.”
Sentinel staff writer Martin Comas contributed to this report.
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Subtropical Storm Nicole chance for tropical-storm-force winds as of 1 a.m. EST (5 a.m. AST) on Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022. (National Hurricane Center)
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ya, just south about 5 miles from Cocoa ? So, yup Brevard County… that’s me w/ a target on my house (we are inland about 5 mi from the beach, closer to I95). At least they are only expecting a cat 1. DH’s company is shutting down servers already in anticipation of Nicole. Today is day 2 of 3 w/ AC off b/c it’s being replaced. Thankfully the crew brought a bunch of wdo units and put them in before they shut it down. But I hope they finish up as planned in their 3 days before Nicole gets here. A lot of my neighbors have hurricane shutters, but no one is putting them up for this storm, they did for Ian though.
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Has anyone heard if MVMCP is going to be cancelled at all this week? We aren’t going until next week, thankfully, but I’m hoping to avoid all the vloggers/bloggers if they can’t go this week…
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I’m hoping it veers either north or south of you-thinking if you these next couple of days, and I hope they get AC all fixed before the storm!
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https://disneyworld.disney.go.com/experience-updates/weather-updates/
Fort Wilderness, Copper Creek, Tree Houses and Poly Bungalows closing Wednesday through Friday
Hoop Dee Doo canceled Wednesday through Friday as well
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