Using my new handy dandy table that now counts listings by year that are 105% of this listing’s price or lower, you can see that when looking at all listings 2-nights or longer:
2025: Only 17 out of a total 67 December listings met that criteria.
2026: 21 out of 76 met it.
(2024 had a lot more listings - but this year is looking much more like 2025.)
When just looking at 4-nights or longer those numbers drop by roughly 1/3.
Also: eyeballing the 2025 chart it only looks like about half a dozen of these lower priced December listings appeared closer than we are in the year right now!
@f1rstxlas7 Still no movement on that “new” dedicated listing page you linked back in March, but FYI: I was just served an ad on The Instagram for this site.
They only have 4 listings on the “Flash Deals” page right now, which I assume are dedicateds(?) Guess I’ll bookmark it to see if they expand.
I’m thinking their guaranteeing owners $22/point doesn’t bode well for great deals unless I am missing something in the arbitrage.
(That “sold” BW deal on there is about 40% under median if it was real, though.)
Yeah I have no clue what’s been going on. It seemed like they put a bunch of work into the site, but the confirmed listing area has remained dormant. The flash deals might be confirmed, like you said, but it’s odd that they’re not included in their table.
This is also a terrific price for December. While we will likely see more OKW listings at or below this price as December approaches - I do not think it will be many. We have seen 5 so far for 2026. While there were 24 listings at this price point in 2025 the vast majority dropped right at 11 months out and only a few appeared from this point in the year forward.
5-night Old Key West Studio 12/13 for $260/night or 17% under median
We will likely see some more shorter stays appear around this price or maybe even lower.
But if looking for anything 6-nights or over, this is very likely the last one we’ll see for August.
See the table in the Price by Days out chart to see how many >=6-nighters at or below this price point we’ve seen each year.
9-night Animal Kingdom Kidani Studio 08/22 for $306/night or 5% under median
I think this is because the listings for HHI are so infrequent, but I thought this was a funny anomaly… Right now there are two September listings at HHI: a 1 BR for 1 night at $924/night, which shows as being right at the median; and a 2 BR for 4 nights at $726/night, which shows as being 10% over the median. Since HHI never has any availability for cash rooms when I’ve checked, I’m not even sure how either of these stacks up against that, but I’m guessing the small number prior of 2 BR listings must have been deeply discounted. $726/night certainly looks like a good deal compared to the 1 BR and Grand Villa rooms currently available.
I think your assessment of what is going on there is on the money.
Just not many data points on those larger rooms so the medians are pretty squishy.
Not even a lot of studio dedicated listings there either!
I have to update the medians soon so these counts are a little old, but here are the number of listings I’ve recorded since 2024 for each of those room types at HHI:
Interesting stuff! It looks like my assumption was a little off: it’s not so much that the 2BRs have been deeply discounted, but since this is the only 1BR it automatically becomes the median.
Just about the lowest price point for BC in December. Perhaps not as rare a price as that BR above, but still: only see less than 10 a year at this price or lower for ANY length.
2-night Beach Club Villas Studio 12/20 for $416/night or 23% under median