Crowd Calendars and Wait Times

The Crowd Calendars were updated a couple of days ago followed by wait time for touring plans. In July and August everything is a 1 - and that makes sense based on what we’re seeing. However, the touring plan wait times are off. Sometimes quite a bit. I’m assuming that the TP model has wait times associated with each attraction based on a crowd level of 1 - and that is what we are seeing. But, in these times the model is off.

Up until a couple of days ago, we could look at submitted wait times for attractions. This was a good gauge of what to expect. But, it appears that that data is not collected (or displayed) anymore.

This is what Steve Bloom said in the latest Crowd Calendar update blog post about wait times in their model right now:

Since the wait time patterns are so different since the reopening we have new models to forecast the wait times. These new models use only what we have observed since July 11. They are a lot simpler than the usual models because the wait time patterns don’t vary much day to day. We are watching closely for changes though, if we see something we will let you know.

In other words, the wait times in your personalized touring plan should be based on the latest data. If you are seeing anomalies, post them here for us to opine on, or submit a ticket to Touring Plans to investigate.

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Welcome! Ask anything & as often as needed.

I’m a big TP fan - no surprise since I’m here. However, IMHO - a TP is going to be useless until at least after Labor Day. They just don’t have enough data right now. Plus, the wait times at rides have, mostly, been ridiculously low. (Ex: At FoP yesterday there was zero wait. CMs were just letting people who were leaving the ride reenter through the FastPass queue right at the exit.)

I don’t know when your trip is, but if it’s in August all I can advise is look at MDE as often as possible to see what rides are still having a 40+ minute wait. (The only ones I can think of are MMRR and RotR at DHS) Everything else is less that 20 minutes or a walk-on. People are reporting they can do everything at each park in a single day.

Here’s a blogger a lot of people like - easywdw - on his experiences this week. Look at his site & you’ll see all his visits to the parks since opening

EDIT - Here another article to get you started:

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Unbelievable, one for the record books…

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That’s great for guests, not so great for Disney. But better than being closed, I assume.

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Hopefully we’ll see some 2’s and 3’s sometime in the near future. For the sake of a healthy, viable business!

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Crowd calendar update today!

I got my e-mail notification about CLs a few moments ago for a TP I made for this December. The numbers all went down to CL1 across every park for every day. However, I still think this such a crazy year that all of these CLs could just be placeholders until there is more data.

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I got my email update as well…let’s hope these predictions are true.


Can you talk to POTUS and the Minister of Canada for me and get the border open before my trip!

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Sure :joy: I think POTUS would definitely be agreeable to it :wink:

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A couple of thoughts on this:

  • I think TP is right that demand for Disney will remain sluggish into 2021 due to the economy (even those returning to work will need to save up a bit for their next trip) and the ongoing effects of the pandemic on willingness and ability to travel
  • Even if a vaccine is introduced soon, it won’t be widely available or administered up to herd immunity levels for several months
  • Disney has indicated that they will likely ramp up capacity as it is safe to do so. This could happen by opening shows (FotLK, Nemo, BatB, Fantasmic, Indiana Jones, etc.) that could swallow up some of the crowds; also reducing restrictions on certain rides (PotC, roller coasters), and opening new rides (Ratatouille … maybe even GotG?)
  • Because of quarantines and other scheduling issues, many people are probably going to restrict their travel to times when they have a solid break from school (i.e., summer - maybe winter and not fall or spring)

In short, the crowd levels they are showing are feasible. But the sticking point for me is if a 3 or 4 crowd level will have waits 2-3x higher than right now due to capacity restrictions. I’m hoping not (because of the bullets above), but we’ll see.

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My late April/early May trip just had every day drop to a 2. Traditionally, I believe the crowd levels are based on expected wait times, not actual capacity of the parks. I hope that holds true. But, unless some form of FP is reinstated, I still think I may end up spending more time waiting than I would on a normal 4 or 5 day.

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I don’t think think that the low crowds can be completely blamed on Covid. More Disney’s response to Covid. Universal had crowds of 8 while we were there a couple of weeks ago and there are some more 8 days in September. I think the difference is that Universal didn’t change quite as much as Disney did. The only show they cut is the light show.

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Did it actually “feel” like an 8, or just the ride queues?

I saw ppls pics. at universal and it seemed to have low crowds … empty spaces…

I watch Rix Flix on YouTube. He goes to Universal 3 - 4 times per week. He showed what the crowds looked like. On Saturdays over the last month or so it has been very busy and the paths were pretty full. He says it feels like a “normal” weekend there these days.

It felt like an 8. The worst was the line for the Simpson’s dining area was at least a block long and not noticeably moving. . Everywhere had a long line but that was the most memorable. Of course, the number of people was less than a normal crowd 8. But, it felt like an 8 since doing anything took as long. I was disappointed.

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Weekends are going to have high waits these days and Epcot will be busy. Seems like weekdays are ok.