Something seems up. Thrill data says today was an 8/10 day and the 64th most crowded day across WDW this year. This does not seem to match anyone’s reports or the anticipated wait times. Is Disney inflating times ahead of genie+ debut to drive sales?
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I posted that on chat this morning. Those stats surprised me.
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Ya, I saw that. I have trouble keeping track of this board vs lines chat 
This has been my big 
with all of this - how is Disney supposed to optimize your waits when it regularly inflates wait times.
ETA when I was in MK a couple weeks ago, the waits posted seemed more accurate than when I was there in June. Sort of wondered if they were heading toward more accurate wait times posted because of Genie.
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The wait times have been a distraction for so many people. Look at that 86% stat. So many people have posted on chat seemingly mad that the TP expected wait is not the same as the Disney posted number.
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Yeah the exaggeration isn’t getting any better. This shows average posted waits of 58 minutes for HM yesterday, but the average actual waits look to be around 25 minutes.
Pay attention people
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So, inflated times in MDE and on lollipops will be a tool to encourage LL purchases ? Pay attention, indeed.
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I’m a little confused. The data in the above link says an 8/10 day but the TP Historical calendar has it as 2/10…
The 8/10 is citing Thrill Data, which is a site that is unaffiliated with TP. The 2/10 is from TP directly. So the two scales may not correlate or be based on different metrics.
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From what I understand thrill data is aggregating what Disney posts as their wait times. So this should be a posted vs actual type comparison.
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Agreed. I found this on mousehacking.com :
" I typically use wait time data collected by Thrill-Data.com, and I usually specify the source in each post. This is data collected from the publicly posted Disney World wait times (you can find them in the My Disney Experience app)."
Yeah I’m wondering why TP is so different though
They also use posted wait times for their CL calculation.
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No, TP uses the posted wait times for their “Posted Wait” category, not their calculated Crowd Level. The CL is based on the actual wait times as experienced by actual guests and TP staff at the various attractions that day - for a day that has finished and is in the past. And TP only uses the actual wait times that occur during the busiest time of the day, typically 11 am - 5 pm at only key attractions (not all).
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TP also uses crowd-sourced data. In the app you can enter what your actual wait time was and what the posted wait time was.
Haven’t Disney’s wait times always been inflated? Last time we used Lines it consistenly showed shorter wait times than in MDE.
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Yeah this has been bad for quite some time now. See:
It’s been that bad that Touring Plans has stopped publishing wait time data through their daily blog posts. It was just too confusing with all the different terms like estimated, observed, actual, posted which didn’t line up correctly with the historical TP data. And since the posted times are easy to get accurate data for, TP would just use those numbers and call them the “average wait time”, which is not really right and produced complaints. 
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I think this just returns us to the original concern that many people had with the free genie option. Will Disney suddenly start reporting real wait times or will they send you to Figment?
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Figment.
I plan on totally ignoring Genie
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I’m going to try it just to see what it does, but my real plan will be in TP.
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I expect TP staff will test Genie against their plans too.
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