So, does that mean that the optimizer reflected the increased waits even before the calendar was updated? So, the calendars were incorrect for some amount of time?
What is means is that there was insufficient data at the time to warrant an overall CL increase, but now thereâs enough. From what I understand of the analytics, the CL is based on an accumulation of attraction wait times, with certain consistent predictors given more power in the equation so if only, say, 30% of attractions are trending toward longer waits it may not add up to enough to meet the threshold for whatever the next CL is. There may be a component that looks specifically at the total amount of increase.
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Thanks @Nikkipoooo â I donât think I could have explained that way!
He also said in another comment: The magnitude of the change is 5-10 minutes at the headliners; less at other attractions.
Thatâs really not that huge of a wait time difference which could be an explanation for not changing the TPâs that much.
As far as crowd level numbers go, I donât think I can picture what a CL 6 is compared to a 10 (some might be able to). I know I dislike waiting as much as the next guy, but, to me, if I canât just walk on to every ride without a wait, itâs still CL10 to my brain!
Thanks @Nikkipoooo. @nolacrazygrl Does this mean 5-10min increase in wait times per raise in crowd level? So, Toy Story at a level 5 might be X but itâs X plus 5 or 10 min at a level 6?
Now I have a headache after reading this entire thread! !! : )
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So correct me if Iâm wrong on this. If you are optimizing/evaluating your plan consistently then you will have a more accurate view of your trip than to simply look at the CL for that day? Sounds like the CL is playing âcatch upâ with our plans? But this seems to go against some of the other reviews out there that state the increase in CL doesnât reflect in the plans and people canât keep up with their plans due to the wait times.
What do you mean by constantly optimizing? I think many optimize every few atractions as they go about their days to capture any changes in the park like temporarily closed attractions or to adjust for any personal changes like longer than expected breaks/meals.
@Sam2071, Yes,thatâs how I understand it.
When you consider the fact that 5-10 minutes extra (and 5-10 minutes amounts to an extra 8-15% of the rideâs capacity) at EACH attraction then youâre looking at a general attendance increase of that amount, so you could potentially be talking about ~4000-12000 more people (depending on which park, and the relative capacity of the rides used), in total, which translates to 8-15% more people trying to get food, use the restrooms, watch parades, etc.
Another thing the blog mentions is that when attendance is down there is typically a cutback in staffing⌠they cut ride staffing by reducing the ride units wherever possible and that leads to longer lines without there actually being more of a crowd. Since the TP PTB know about this, it can be assumed that they factor it into the CL calculations as well.
@schaegy, I donât think itâs a matter of the CL being âbehindâ, so much as itâs just that the individual wait times are more sensitive than the overall crowd level. Kind of like how adding a cup of water to a half gallon jug will be a notceable difference, but adding a cup of water to a 5-gallon pail wonât affect it much at all. If you added a cup for EACH half gallon in the pail, though, you can see the difference.
@nolacrazygrl, I donât feel the difference between 4-7 as much, but you definitely notice a difference between a 2 and a 5, because you go from little to no waiting to a moderately short wait. Then if you go from a 6 or 7 to a 10 youâre going from a ânormalâ wait to wondering why you even bothered getting out of bed this morning.
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One suggestion for people with specific questions about the CL change - put your questions in the Comments section of the Blog post. TP bloggers are supposed to monitor their posts, and Steve is actually replying to questions and issues that have been raised there.
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I donât know how I ended up being so lucky, but I only had 2 days go up one number and 2 days that also went down one number for a stay from Sept. 1st to Sept. 13th. Iâm an extreme planner though so not only did I use this years crowd calendar, but I compared it to last years crowd calendar and then used 2 other crowd calendars on the web as reference.
It looks like one of the biggest leaps was the Sunday before Memorial Days and by looking at things last year I decided ahead of time that day was going to be a break/pool day anyways. I guess I can finally tell me husband that all of my hours of research on the computer were definitely worth it.
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9/4 is my AK day and the jump from a 3 to a 9 is amazing! I have Tiffins dinner booked and all my FPs so I am not worried but that was quite a jump!
Like Prinicipal Tinker my CLs went up significantly - from a 1 to a 6 is a big difference in my mind. So if it means 5 - 10 min longer wait is that a 30 to 60 minute wait difference? Iâm frustrated because I use the crowd calendar to plan the week of my visit. Now it looks as though the 1st week of december is not much better than many other times during the year. I can see that may actually be the case, but not sure why TP is just now figuring that out??? I had my original plan worked out (park days/ADRs) so that all of my CL = 1 or 2 with the exception of one 3 morning at AK. Now they are all 5, 6 and 7!
OH but December in the world will be magical!
I agree! When I told my husband about the CL change he said âlets just change it to January when it will be slowerâ I said NO WAY! wonât be nearly as magical:)
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The blog post linked in the email actually said that on average there is a 6 min increase wait at attractions per two index level increase. So from a level 2 to a level 4, add 6 minutes to your waits. Except, the touring plans are apparently already doing so. If you have a touring plan, you already have your daily expectations adjusted to these ânewâ levels. Now that theyâre public it just looks scary. My Crowd Calendar Numbers Have Changed â What To Do? | TouringPlans.com Blog
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My trip for the end of November to beginning of December went from 1-3 to 4-7!! This is my first time going as an adult. Iâm taking a 4 year old and a 6 year old. I purposefully picked this week because of the low crowd levels. I am really worried about this change!!
Donât worry too much about this - a good TP will mitigate a lot of the problems here. There was a blog post that compared the overall time for the same TP optimized for CLs 1 through 10, and there was only a gradual increase until CL 10, where it took off. That is the beauty of an optimized plan, in that it allows you to take the best advantage of the conditions you face.
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I agree w brklinck here. I was there last September and crowds were higher than predicted. My TPs still went smoothly. This year, even though itâs kinda worrisome seeing those jumps in numbers, I think weâll be fine as long as we trust the plan.
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I get that things change, but Iâm frustrated because we picked the first week in December because it was all 1s and 2s. Now itâs 5,6,7 and even some 9s (on days that were previously 2, in which we also made some reservations).
Just surprised it could be THAT big of a change.
Itâs sad to say, but I really think that the number of variables, and the rate at which Disney has been changing them, has created a situation where, no matter how complex the algorithm is, itâs basically impossible to accurately predict WDW crowd levels. Seasonal ticket and resort pricing, resort package deals (e.g. free dining), EP festivals, MK parties, the changing FPP dynamic, adding new shows and attractions are all interconnected variables. Then add things like airline fare changes, school schedules that are continually moving away from the âLabor Day to Memorial Day with 2 weeks at Christmas and 1 week at Easterâ model (not to mention the ever-increasing number of home-schooled kids who are not tied to a hard schedule), and general shifts in the economy.
The success of TP has always been on itâs huge data base of historical numbers that could be used to make wildly accurate predictions. This was great when WDW was a relatively âstableâ environment. But over the past 4 or 5 years Disney has been making so many changes, so rapidly, by the time there is a significant amount of data to make a reasonable prediction on one set of ârulesâ, those ârulesâ have been changed.
The CLs are based on a normal distribution (bell curve). Historically, the peak is in the 5-7 range, with moderate slopes to the 1 and 10. With the apparent success of Disneyâs goal of a more even distribution of guests across the year (i.e. fewer âslowâ periods, and perhaps fewer REALLY crowded days), the peak will still be in the 5-7 range, but the peak will be much taller and will have steeper curves to the 1 and the 10. In basic statistical terms, the mean remains the same, but the variance decreases.
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