September crowd levels have recently been increased significantly!

I have just noticed that on our crowd tracking for our upcoming September trip (16th - 26th), the crowd levels have increased significantly for all days in all parks.

What were 2 & 3 level days are now 5 & 6 level days. What has happened for these levels to have changed so much over the last week or so?

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I just had the same thing happen for our trip at the end of August.

early December just bumped up… from 1, 2, 3’s to 5, 6, 7’s!!!

Is my Feb 17 trip the only one where crowd levels went down? Epcot from 6 to 3, the others from 6, 7, 8 to 5, 6, 7.

I know the “reason” for the seasonal ticket price changes (as well as the various resort and package “deals”) was to try to “even out” the annual crowd distribution by way of financial incentivization. (Corollary: suck the pockets dry of the unfortunates who have no option but to travel during “peak” times). Perhaps this plan is working and the bump-ups in traditionally “slow” times reflect this.

@len, just wondering.
I have done all my touring plans since our FP date is Friday.
I went in this morning since the crowd levels changed and did a new optimize and evaluate to see what I needed to tweek for my FP times.
Nothing changed! I am wondering, now that the crowd levels have changed on the crowd calendar, have the touring plan evaluations and optimize crowd levels been updated to reflect the changes yet, in the touring plans???
I hope this question makes sense :smirk:
I just want to make sure that the times on my touring plans reflect the newest crowd levels.

Thank you for your help!

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I’ll ask @SteveBloom and @fred to weigh in on that.

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The biggest change affecting us was EP on 29 November going from a 2 to a 5. I have a morning plan and a afternoon plan, re-optimized both and there was no change to my wait times. Both at 95 and 99 min respectively.

On my last trip, the CLs were all predicted at the 2-4 range. Actuals were all in the 4-7 range. My carefully crafted TPs became useless by 11:00 because with the higher than predicted CLs, all of the wait times were way off. It was all very frustrating and stressful. I would MUCH rather know that I’m facing a CL 6 or 7 during the planning stage and build realistic expectations around that vice getting there expecting one thing and finding out that “reality” is a much uglier picture.

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I agree! This happened to us in November on our Hollywood Studio’s day. Our carefully planned TP was useless after lunch.

Thank you @len, I wasn’t sure who to direct that to but I knew you would! Thank you for allowing me to utilize you as my “go to guy”!

I’ve read quite a few complaints regarding the crowd levels rising however the wait times don’t move resulting in plans going out the window. Not sure why the two don’t work together. Maybe admins can explain if they come across this thread?

There is a TP Blog post explaining some of the causes of the CL updates that happened last night - http://blog.touringplans.com/2016/07/26/wdw-cc-update/

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Most of my dates (8/31-9/4) except 9/4 went down, and 9/4 went up from 3 to 9 at AK and 6 to 8 at MK, but we’re just doing MK 9-12 then headed to HS just for the fireworks after having a pool day anyway. Our MK TP hasn’t changed, but we’re using FPP for everything we we’re doing that gets a line anyway.

Hoping the TP people have a response. Why is it that the wait times didn’t changed upon re-optimization with updated, increased crowd levels? What’s going on here?

I assumed that the more accurate the prediction of wait times, the better my plan would perform. But, if wait times don’t increase with higher crowd levels, than I totally don’t understand the process. I’m lost now. I rely on the plans to do many things including helping me figure out what I can reasonably enjoy in a day.

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Agreed. I thought crowd levels dictated wait times. What’s up??

That blog post doesn’t really explain why the significant rise in crowd levels the first week of December. I have one day when epcot and HS were both a 1, now they are 5 and 6! What the heck???

This may not be exactly explanation that people are looking for but…

“The new predictions reflect changes due to park hours, school schedules, and recent trends of observed wait times. One of the more interesting impact of the school schedules will occur during Christmas break…(Read more here)”

As far as CL numbers, I’m gathering that the distribution for just that was skewed and had to be adjusted to catch up to the current wait time predictions. The wait times are constantly updating in the system for predictions, where the CL number just gets picked according to the wait time minutes. The predicted wait times won’t (or shouldn’t) change too much just bc that CL number increased or decreased- the wait times HAVE already increased. Of course, if a school schedule is messing with crowds like for my trip 1/3/17 - 1/9/17, then it may have an effect on the TP.

I’m not overly excited about visually seeing my week CL going from a 6-7 to a 9-10, but at least I’ll be in the Happiest Place on Earth!!!

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Crowd Levels are totally based on the wait times for certain attractions in each park. So, if CL increases, the wait times must likewise increase. In the absence of this happening, there’s an issue.

If the system sees higher crowds within a day, then the ideal is that it should ‘realize’ that the crowd level is higher (or lower) than predicted and make course corrections with optimization. I’m not so sure this is happening within a day let alone ahead of time…if wait times don’t go up as crowd levels go up.

Although, I get your point! We’ll be in WDW which is a good thing!

Steve B commented on blog post:

“The optimizer had access to the new attraction prediction prior to the crowd levels being updated. If you evaluate a Touring Plan and times have not changed, the optimizer was using the latest attraction predictions. We will update an attraction’s prediction and not update the Crowd Calendar if there are no significant changes to the Crowd Calendar.”

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I was wondering if that might be the case, because my wait times for the one day of increased CL went up a week or two ago but the CL didn’t change until last night.