I did go on it. It was amazing. I need a few more runs to take it ALL in. I was mainly just looking like
We ride, if all goes well and @bebe80’s instructions are useful at all (I kid!!), one week from tomorrow
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well… I didn’t get a BG today and I have in the past. I think there is A LOT more competition for those spots now than b4. Good Luck!!!
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So far so good in practice runs 
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I will be practicing more b/c I have A LOT of pressure riding on getting one for my DS (that’s never been) in about 25 days
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I wish we knew a company that could do the statistical analysis of this.
- Number of guests per hour (ride capacity)
- Number of guests in the park
- Percentage of guests that meet height requirement
- Percentage of guests that would want to ride
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Len and co. have answered portions of this question in the past, but the numbers are completely different now, so it would be interesting to hear a refresh. Also, now that a healthy proportion of guests on a given day have already ridden RotR once, I imagine the urgency to ride has abated a bit, so people won’t be as disappointed if they don’t get to ride it every time they are in HS.
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Okay, three days in a row with success. I’m gonna stop now confident that I can make this happen.
Leave it for people really trying to get a BG for the day.
I start back praticing a few days before my trip next month.
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Currently the only Resistance I’m committed to is an unwillingness to wake up before 7.
So far, I’m nailing a BG in my bed 100%.
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Tmi
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Actually tried to get a BG this morning,
Well, that Slinky Dog looks pretty cool right?
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This part of the question was answered in yesterday’s blog post:
https://touringplans.com/blog/second-summer-wave-disney-world-wait-times-for-wednesday-june-23-2021/
We counted 1,535 riders on ROTR between 10:45 and 11:45 a.m. today, and there were 15 boarding groups called during that time. That 1,535/hour throughput is very close to the peak hourly capacity we’ve seen on the ride (1,578 on February 29, 2020). We’ve heard the best hourly throughput the ride has ever had is around 1,700 riders, so hopefully this upward trend continues.
According to this blog post, Attendance at Hollywood Studios in 2019 was estimated at 11,483,000. That comes out to an average of 31,460 people per day (compared to 57,000 at MK).
Assuming RotR operates for 12 hours (which is current 9am-8pm operating hours + 1 to account for pre-park opening and post-closing time), RotR can handle about 20,000 riders per day.
According to this height chart, the average boy reaches 40 inches at age 4. (I’m not gong to try to parse gender differences so I’ll leave it at that.)
According to this site, there are about 19.5 million children ages 0 - 4 in the U.S., which is about 6% of the U.S. population according to the 2020 census (332.6 million).
So of the 31,460 daily visitors, only 29,572 (94%) are tall enough to ride, assuming similar distribution of height to the general population.
20,000 / 29,572 = 67.6% of people who want a boarding group will get one on a day at peak operating capacity (1,700 riders / hour) and average pre-pandemic attendance.
18,000 / 29,572 = 60.9% on a day with 1,500 riders per hour.
Note that according to quora, Hollywood Studios has a capacity of 75,000 guests based on parking, etc. At 35% capped capacity, that would be 26,250. If we use the same 94% height requirement factor, that’s 24,675 potential riders. Assuming 1,700 riders per hour for 12 hours, about 81% of visitors could ride during the pandemic.
To summarize, somewhere between 19-39% of visitors either don’t want to ride RotR, don’t care if they don’t, or leave HS disappointed.
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I wish you’d put more time into your analyses instead being so off the cuff about it…
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Since that 1,500 or 1,700 riders per hour is based on actual ridership, I wonder if capacity is being met without a standby line. I presume rides aren’t less than full or delayed waiting for people to show up.
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There is always a small line (20-30 minutes). So only at the very beginning of the day would they be running empty vehicles.
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So just use Virtual Queue only with the Fast Pass booking system. No standby line, just like currently. Lots of VQ passes left at 30 days out. Maybe even some left at 10 days before your trip. What would be wrong with that system?
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It is rare for any ride to ever hit the theoretical maximum. Everything would have to be perfect to do so, INCLUDING having no guests try to ride who might slow the boarding process down. In practice, the “actual maximum” is some amount less than the theoretical maximum.
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That could be a good way to go if they return to the FPP system. And, they might even allow a drop of a very small number day-of. Not Standby, but the 7:00 and/or 1:00 drop IF there are any BGs left.
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Now that is what I like to see!
- 1.7k riders per hour
- 100 riders per BG
Couple of thoughts:
- The other chart you posted earlier shows 189&192 BGs over 10 hours. From that data, I would tend to think the actual capacity could reach 20 BGs per hour. To do this, they would need to ensure that the 1 hour window for BGs is enforced so we do not bunch people up. So if we use 20 BGs per hour over a 12 hour period, we get 24k people.
- When the 6% cannot ride because of height requirements, there must be at least 1 person that should stay with them. So the 6% could jump to 12% or even higher if more than one person stays with them. So lets use 1 as our number and use 12% as those not riding. 31,460 x 86% = 27,056.
- Let’s say 3% of people are not interested in RotR on any given day. I think that is low (because of my love for Star Wars), but let’s use it. 31,460 x 3% = 944 people.
- We are left with 26,112.
That implies almost all would be able to ride with these numbers.
We can make the Math show anything we want…LOL
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On the other hand…if they use rider swap, then not only will that 1 person still ride, but they can generally take up to 2 more people with them (to ride again)…so the 6% non-riders might actually cause FEWER people to be able to ride, not more. (That is, if you have 6 people in a family, one doesn’t ride, so first 4 ride, and then do rider swap, and then the one who didn’t get to ride now rides with two of those from the first group…you end up with a group of 6 people taking 7 slots!)
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