Plan problem after re-evaluation?

Hi all

Did some plans a couple of weeks ago for this August. Everything looked great!

However, we have just re-evaluated after the SWGE announcement and things don’t seem to add up? In particular we are looking at doing MK EMH and heading straight to Space Mountain. Our original plan had us arriving at Space Mountain at 08:13 and having a 5 minute wait. After re-evaluating our plan we still arrive at 08:13 but now have a 32 minute wait!! At first I thought this was just a SWGE issue, however the MK CL for that day has actually DECREASED from a 6 to a 4 since our original plan was made. Why have our wait times increased SO MUCH!!

Original Plan - https://touringplans.com/plans/print?id=3521154
New Plan - https://touringplans.com/plans/print?id=3563049

Perhaps our original plan was a glitch? What sort of average wait time for Space Mountain would you expect at 08:13 on an EMH day?

Any insights would be appreciated! I don’t know what to believe and follow at the moment!

Paul

I’d expect 10 mins max for your first ride at least. Have you tried evaluating a few times? Sometimes you have to optimise a few times till it makes sense, I don’t know if evaluate is the same.

That’s odd. Maybe they are predicted reduced capacity?

You are there prior to SWGE opening (which is probably why your CL dropped with the SWGE calendar update). The expectation is that the parks will be fully staffed during the opening week of SWGE. TP may be anticipating staffing reduction in the weeks leading up to the opening.

My MK EMH plan on May 24 (CL 5) has Space Mt as a 17 minute wait at 8:31 am.

My AK plan for May 27, 2019 (CL 7) is giving me a 27 minute wait at Expedition Everst during EMH at AK even when I put EE as the first stop in my plan. I thought everyone rushed towards Pandora so EE would have short waits. Perhaps, they only run a couple of trains because so few people are over there at

Has a time change at the park happened? Maybe it opens earlier now and you’r not arriving at RD.

According to the WDW site, there is no EMH that day at MK.

https://disneyworld.disney.go.com/en_GB/calendars/five-day/2019-08-15/

I think you were looking at the wrong day.

???

So they have different info on the two pages. Because if you look at my link, the left hand side of the page is Friday 16th August, with no EMH listed. It’s the 5 day View.

When I clicked on your link it showed me today’s date, I clicked across to August and screen shot from your link.

ETA photo - this is what I see.

But the date on your link is 15th August anyway, which is the day before.

Odd, I get a 5 day view. See what you mean about the date on the actual URL though.

This is the column for the first date listed, Friday 16th

Friday, 16 Saturday, 17 Sunday, 18 Monday, 19 Tuesday, 20

Magic Kingdom Park- Expanded

Park Hours

9:00 AM to 9:00 PM

Extra Magic Hours

Parades

Disney Festival of Fantasy Parade

3:00 PM

TP’s Space Mountain Standby Wait Forecast shows that the wait on 8/16/2019 will start at 50 minutes at 8 am, then drop to 20 minutes at 8:30 am. This is very different from the steady increase on 8/15 and 8/17.
Edit: Adding 8/15 and 8/17 have similar CLs, but do NOT have EMH. The spike at the start could be from the initial rush to Space during EMH (only Fantasyland and Tomorrowland are open during EMH). However, your original plan also had EMH. Possibly a Crowd Calendar update which was done after the SWGE announcement had an impact.


I also found a similar initial spike and drop on the wait time for 8/9/19 which has EMH.

Thank you all for your time and comments so far.

“Possibly a Crowd Calendar update which was done after the SWGE announcement had an impact.”

The thing is the crowd level for 16 Aug was reduced from a 6 to a 4!

Looks like something odd is going on with the data. Ive got plans for the whole fortnite, I’m going to re-evaluate the others… if I dare!! I’ll let you know the outcome.

I’ve also noticed a date issue with the attractions details.

If I go to say “Pirates of the Carribean” info, the actual date is correct but if you click on the calendar icon to open the drop down month view, the dates are all out by a day!
Try it - https://disneyworld.disney.go.com/en_GB/attractions/magic-kingdom/pirates-of-the-caribbean/

(I hope that’s how to add a picture!)

Oh wow!
So maybe it’s a U.K. site issue then?

Now please tell me… how did you get the snapshot of the screen to post? I tried so many times last night!!

Hi there!

I’ve just emailed Disney with the issue. Lets see how many years it takes! Still doesn’t help my Touring Plan problem though :frowning:

I saved it first as a file onto my desktop. I then clicked the “upload file” icon in the message header menu and then chose the saved file from my desktop.

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Same Friday last year - Aug 17, 2018 with EMH had Space Mountain at less than 10 mins up until 09:35. I would like to know what’s different this year? One thing I do know is that it’s currently derailing my plans!

Maybe you can’t see a 5 day view on the phone - I definitely don’t remember ever seeing one.

I definitely think the EMH wait time on your day is odd. Here are a few ideas:

Reason 1 - TP is predicting that Space will not be running when the park opens which leads to a longer line than usual first thing in the morning. This is a change from the wait time predictions used in your original plan.

Explanation - The wait time at 8 am is 50 minutes because the ride isn’t operating when the first guests reach the queue. The ride is predicted to start operating at 8:50. Guests arriving in the queue at 8:30 will only wait 20 minutes until the ride starts running.

Reason 2 - TP is predicting the rides will be run at a lower capacity with a CL of 4 instead of 6. 8/16 is before SWGE opens.

Explanation - The crowd level dips as a result of this unexpected announcement. Disney will be prepared for the influx of crowds for SWGE and be operating at full capacity 8/29. They will reduce staffing and number of trains on track (in the case of Space) in the less crowded weeks before SWGE.

Reason 3 - It’s a mistake.

Explanation - The data shows that a guest arriving at 8 am will have a 50 minute wait. They board the ride at 8:50 am. However, your touring plan has you arriving at 8:13 am and waiting 32 minutes which means that you board at 8:45 am. This makes no sense. How can a guest arriving 13 minutes later board 5 minutes earlier?

I think this is a good question for the Crowd Calendar statisticians. @fred @SteveBloom, any insights?

Wow thanks! All those reasons make sense. I hope it is just a mistake though, otherwise it’s messed up a plan i was very happy with. Hopefully I’ll get some answers?

If it stays, though it messed with your plan, at least you know you are using the most recent data so can replan as needed and be more likely to have a plan that can be put into action. Silver lining?

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