Park reservations sold out but low crowd estimate?

I have a question on crowd calendar estimates. We have a trip coming up in a few weeks and we planned our HS day for a day that the crowd calendar has it as a “3”. Now that date Disney has HS as sold out of reservations. So if the park is “sold out”, how would it be only a 3? I know it’s just an estimate, and out of park reservations isn’t the same as the park is at capacity. I’d just assume the estimate would be higher than a 3 if Disney isn’t allowing any more people in before 2 pm.

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Disney has capped attendance for now but may open up more availability later if staffing shortages can be addressed. For now, WDW can only host so many people due in part to lack of workers.

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Then how were they having “10” level crowds this past week if they are limiting attendance and have no staff? Are you saying leading to their biggest week of the year, while adr’s, hotels, and park reservations are hard to come by, they are limiting the attendance on the parks to a third? Tomorrow TP has HS as a 2, but it’s out of reservations? So Disney is capping their attendance at 20%?

The crowd calendar could be wrong. Has there been an adjustment since international travelers have been able to return?

Between Genie+, Covid, staffing issue, consumer confidence (or lack of confidence) I don’t expect anyone to be able to predict tomorrow, nevermind next week, next month, or next year.

Use the tools and expect peak crowds every day. If it is a lower crowd you will be happy!


Oh I’m committed and going the days I’m going. This is more of a philosophical question I guess.


Yeah, I would ignore those numbers.

This must be the day that you are referring to. Seeing how the low to mid Crowd Level numbers are consistent with the green R and T’s and when availability starts to decrease (red) closer to Christmas, Touring Plan’s CL’s are 7+ to reflect that.

My observation is it’s a Disney issue/reason and may not be a Touring Plans mistake.

Oddly enough, today all parks are sold out of reservations and TP has them all as 3 or 4. I guess it’s just reduced amount of reservations available, but you’d think if Disney knew they had the demand, they’d increase the amount of reservations available.

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Also oddly enough, TP predicted on average a 7 for yesterday but it turned out to be 5! Will be interesting to see what today’s actual crowd levels were. But ,it’s very possible that TP did not expect most of the holiday visitors to stay the entire weekend.

One small factor for any weekend could be, Disney may give a bigger proportion of park availability to locals (AP’s) as compared to a weekday. Those locals have a shorter park day on average than the traveling family and also don’t ride as many attractions. If that is the case, we all know that CL’s are solely based off of wait times. Which would lower the CL, even though attendance is the same. Just a hypothetical!


It turns out TP was overall very close to their predictions of lower waits yesterday (Sunday)



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There are numerous potential explanations, but not sure there is a way to confirm.

  1. The numbers are just wrong (based on bad assumptions)
  2. The number of park reservations fluctuates depending on staff availability. So, when they run out of reservations, it could be because they had fewer available to begin with. But weeks, such as during Christmas, there is more staff available to work due to fewer conflicts with school (college), childcare, etc. This allows Disney to have more staff working, and therefore have more park reservations. This means larger crowds and larger waits compared to days they have fewer reservations.
  3. There might be other things going on in the parks that draw the crowd (shows, etc) that aren’t normally going on.
  4. Certain days, more people might park hop to/from a specific park, despite having filled park reservations.

There are more reasons at play, I’m sure. Those are a few that come to mind.

We went yesterday and park reservations were sold out but it definitely wasn’t a CL10 day. I also assumed staffing shortages maybe mandatory OT last week or they used temporary staffing? I’m guessing I have no idea.

So based on what you are seeing is TP predictions accurate even when certain parks have no availability. That no reservation doesn’t necessarily mean high wait times?

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If they are cutting back on reservations based on staffing that is excellent news. The thought that they might do that is why I’ve supported park reservations staying, even though they are annoying.

Disney aren’t using temporary staffing at the moment, they haven’t taken back or recruited any seasonal CMs since the parks closed.

CMs are being scheduled for extra shifts at very busy peak times, and I suspect the CP kids are also doing extra too.

This is why ADRs are difficult to get at the same time as people are saying there are empty tables. They simply don’t have enough staff to run restaurants at full capacity. Same for the fact there are no trams running, those are not seen as a priority just now.

I think they’ll be prioritising the operational roles, especially at peak times.

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Can you think of any reason other than saving on payroll and using the staffing shortage excuse?

Maybe they still have staff on furlough who haven’t been recalled yet?

But I don’t know, sorry.

I don’t think it is an excuse. I think they cannot find enough staff.

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But if they haven’t called back all the laid-off staff, then it is an excuse.
If they called everyone back, and many didn’t come, and then they put out competitive job openings that weren’t filled, then it is that they can’t find enough staff. Otherwise, just an excuse. I don’t know which is true.

Have you heard they have not called all WDW park staff back (I have some questions are BBB staff). The reports I have read state that all CMs were called back and they have had a few very large job fairs?