My family of 4 is heading to DHS this Saturday (DH, DS12, DS10) and they are pretty convinced they want to try to RD MFSR. We’ll be there trying to get a BG anyways. I’ve seen the data suggesting it might be better to wait but they are definitely bigger Star Wars fans than Toy Story and they want to get right to it. What is the reality of this RD? For example, I feel like I have read that people are queued up in front of Star Tours or Frozen which is probably a big difference in wait time. Is that a half hour difference in wait time? I’m trying to get a good idea of where ‘too far’ back is so I can redirect to a different plan. I’d love to hear from those who have done this recently.
We do have a FPP for TSMM at 7:45 and was expecting/hoping to hit the very end of that window with whatever we RD. Please don’t be judgey of that timing - we booked everything (flight, hotel, park tickets) 16 days out so FPP was limited and I grabbed what I could! But thanks to the forum I’ve got a solid plan with early FPPs hoping to modify, burn, and look for same day options.
There should be enough data by now to give a pretty good idea on what RD wait times will be with the big HS rides. If you haven’t got a Touring Plans subscription for custom touring plans, get one and see what it has to stay. If you already have one, trust what it says and what ride you should RD.
I actually have three different TPs for my DHS day 
The optimized TP has also changed pretty frequently given the shifts in early in the day visitors to DHS because of BGs.
What I’m really asking is while I know the data says my wait my be ten minutes less if I wait an hour or twenty minutes less if I wait until after 6pm, if the family is sold on doing this first at what point should I say “we should bail on this plan.” I’ve read all the posts that say if you aren’t at the front of the queue you should do something else first, but what does front of the queue look like? In view of Star Tours? Past Echo Lake? I haven’t been since GE opened so I am just trying to understand where the CMs hold you and what areas are filled in.
We’ll be there Saturday as well. From what I’ve read, they hold the guests in front of the Chinese theater until official park open.
I believe I saw this last week by the Chinese theatre.
Based on that, you should keep to the left at the end of Hollywood Blvd.
My situation was a little different than yours, but from what I saw, if you are not too far back you should make you FPP for SDD without issue.
I completely understand the pull into Black Spire Outpost as soon as you get into the park. I had to resist was everything I had until I got other things out of the way first.
Easywdw.com has a pretty good blog post about what the line looks like:
My takeaway from reading his posts is that if you are willing to show up SUPER early for RD (90 minutes before park open) you can have a minimal wait for MFSR. Personally, I would rather sleep in, arrive at the park shortly before it opens, and then head anywhere else and do MFSR later in the day.
Touring Plans is predicting half-hour waits during the day in June.
Can anyone speak to how credible this sounds?
Here is a post from someone who recently tried to RD MFSR but only arrived 30 min prior to opening. She exited 90 minutes after park opening (so that includes walking, waiting, and riding MFSR). It was January 7th which was a CL 7 day:
If you arrive earlier, you might have a shorter wait. In my experience, the wait for MFSR seems to go pretty fast even when it is long.
If they are still doing standby only, I could see waits dying down. That’s what the waits were pre-RotR. If they implement FPP, wait time will probably stay above an hour or more.
@cbalusek That was extremely helpful!
We are committed to the cause! The family is okay with being pretty aggressive with our arrival since we only have three days in the parks. Sleep is for the weak! (Or the plane ride home. Or the next day when we don’t plan on being at a park until close to 9).
Here’s my update. We got to the park by six, tapped in at 6:17. Walked with purpose and ended up right next to the Olaf meet and greet in view of Star Tours. On MFSR (ended up just our family of four on the ride) and done by 7:40! Hit the very beginning of TSMM FPP window instead of the end. Also got BG 13, so we casually walked through GE while the ride was down and are in the queue now. I also helped two other groups get their BGs who were struggling near us and am very thankful for TP forums for all the advice!