There is a level of lockdown and social isolation that is enough for this thing not to overwhelm health systems. This level is pretty high, unfortunately. Wuhan just managed to get it under control, at the cost of locking everything down for one month (and they still haven’t reopened).
The problem with mild measures is that they are not enough for cases not to blow up.
When the disease is under control and hospitals have enough beds, fatality rates are less then 1%. When things blow up, fatality rates increase to 3-4%. That’s 2% more deaths among infected, for a disease that is predicted to infect a lot of people.
How much social and economy cost, and for how long, is it worth to avoid that human cost? What are the trade offs? In a democracy you need to trust your elected officials to make the decision and trade off that you would make, or at least be comfortable with.
They are probably only announcing a short closure so they can focus on sorting out those guests and the ones already there first. They’re already overwhelmed.
I was just talking with my husband about what this will do to crowds in May if they are open then. Our trip is mid-may. We chose that week specifically because it looked to be an extraordinarily uncrowded week. Now if all the spring breakers are rescheduling until May, we will have to deal with exactly the crowds we were trying to avoid. We will manage, we went last time during spring break. I get crowd anxiety, and it was less than pleasant for me. I guess we’ll just take things as they come though, that seems to be our current state for everything in life right now! I’m not sure if we’ll reschedule, or if they are still closed by mid-May, when we will reschedule to.
We chose that time for low crowds also. It’s definitely difficult to decide when to replan. I want to go before my oldest turns three, so before next year March, but I suspect this closure of the parks will mess with crowd calendars for the entire year following when they open the parks again.
I don’t think you’have to worry about spring breakers rescheduling in May. Who would go during Spring Break unless that’s the only time you could get off, right? I’m just worried now that it still won’t be open then, and if it is - would it be smart to go?
I arrive in Florida on 5/29 and check in @ Pop on 6/1 thru 6/4. If I have to stay with my mother in law the entire time I hope I can cancel our flight along with our Disney trip. #firstworldproblems
I don’t know what the solution is, but not everyone has the luxury of staying/working from home & I fear for our economy as much as all those walking around not knowing if they are carriers or not. I just recovered from Pneumonia last week and I’ve had several people ask if it’s possible I had it. I don’t think this has been handled well at all here in NJ & I’m sure many others feel the same. Sorry for venting. This thing has me second guessing all kinds of things.
The simulations were cool. Although I think the beginning is misrepresenting things in the US. We are only just now really testing. So cases are not increasing exponentially. Instead cases are being tested now that before we weren’t sure. As more tests are done, the more cases will show up. But it is an exponential case of testing for, not spread of coronavirus.
Regardless, the simulations do show the goal of current measures nicely.
I’ve been pointing this out to my kids over a few things that have been cancelled. They can keep the money. I had already spent it and they counted on it. It’s ok.
And this is coming from someone whose middle name is ROI. In this case I’m investing in this stuff being able to return after Covid-19.
We had theater tickets to 1984 that just opened at Alley Theatre Houston. They are going to tape a production of it. We can either get tickets refunds or a password to watch the taped play. Brilliant!
We have season tickets and they have a resident cast of actors. No way we’re taking a refund.
Looks like Spring 2009 was a cold one. There was a winter storm in the Carolinas at the beginning of March 2009. This spring seems to be much warmer and it really hasn’t been very cold this winter.
. The pandemic lasted over a year with a lot of cases in the spring and an uptick in the fall.