I was hoping to get some guidance before redoing my touring plans and eliminating some attractions.
I noticed that @disneyfamily26@dogslider@disney13@sbarton187@JJT and I have all posted comments about significant increases in the wait times for touring plans in November and December. These changes seem to have occurred this week when evaluating or optimizing our touring plans. Is there any way to confirm that this new increase in wait times for our upcoming trips is what we should expect, or should we all use the wait times that were listed in our touring plans prior to this week? Would it be better if we just wait until the trip gets closer?
One thing I can think of is that the “final” operating schedule for November would have been released recently which may have altered park hours. This would have affected the Crowd Levels and the Wait Time profiles for November and also may have had a knock-on effect into December.
Otherwise, this question falls into the domain of @len and @fred
I’ve asked @Fred to weigh in. We’ve just loaded updated predictions for most of the attractions, and I think this is related. Info on specific attractions, dates, and times, would be helpful. Thanks!
@jac9014, thanks for trying to get information on this. I will try to evaluate again once the trip is closer and see what happens. I know that over them many trips there that we haven’t waited over 10 minutes at EE in the first hour. But it could be that things are changing. It’s just odd that up until a couple days ago it showed 3-5 minutes from 9-10am and now it’s 10-18 min.
The change in times has thrown every one of my plans off the charts and I don’t think I have the heart to redo them all. Will have to back to old school. Rope drop and rotate according to FPP+ and ADR’s.
I do not see how Jungle Cruise at rope drop will be 16 minutes. I am on 2 other sites with timing (I am trying to make this a great trip,it is our last “big” one for a while )
and both sites have times close to what the timing was before, maybe a couple of minutes more than b4.
With these latest changes, I lost almost 30 minutes in my first hour! Pushed my first FP to after the time. (Hoping if it is accurate they are still honoring grace periods because I can’t change it at this point)
I’d have to pester Fred with mutliple days worth of time changes, haha, I’m just going to find a happy medium between the sites, and hope for the best.
I’ll keep refreshing my plans and hope I see some changes on those rope drop times!
It stinks though, because I had card stock paper ready to downsize my tours and print a small version to keep in my stroller compartment.
I just reevaluated my TPs for the week of Nov 17-22. Three parks increased in wait time, one decreased - none of the changes was more than plus/minus 16 min. Combining all 4 park touring days together, the net increase in wait time is 23 minutes. I do not find this unreasonable.
I think the increases in RD waits is a result of the broadness of the term “RD”. I don’t think anyone could argue that being the first through the tapstyles at RD will be a different experience than being the 500th person through the tapstyles at RD. I think the “old” numbers reflected being at the head of the pack, and the new numbers reflect being more at the middle of the pack. From first-hand experience I’ve gone directly to TT “at RD”, near the back of the crowd, and found a 50 min line…
The first time I reevaluated my EP TP it cane out 75 minutes longer, and used none of my FPPs (47 min wait at TT when i had a FPP???). I looked closer, and realized that in the reevaluation process it changed the start time of my TP from 8AM EMH to 9AM regular opening. Once I went back in and changed the start time back to 8AM, the total wait time actually went DOWN by 16 min for the “old” time.
Hi, sorry for the delay, we’ve had quite a few questions to sort through.
Yes, I can confirm that wait time estimates have recently been updated. They are legitimate, accurate and represent our best estimate of how long you will wait and line. We are constantly updating the models we use to predict wait times and occasional that results in a system-wide update, that’s what you all have noticed here.
Hope that helps.
Jungle cruise may have a significant wait if your date includes the Christmas overlay version of the attraction. Last year, the overlay increased waits significantly.
I think the big increase in wait times for the first hour is mostly due to guests who will be using fpp at that time. Before now there was only a standby line for the first 45 minutes but now fpp will get priority over standby from opening therefor increasing wait time for standby at rd. The same way as standby wait times have increased for rides we would not normally fp but because people fpp them standby is longer.
I assumed that FPP at opening would have been worked in to the times before now though. It’s not a new thing within the last 2 weeks. Crowd levels haven’t changed and FPP wasn’t just released so the big change in times was a shocker to me. It is my first time using TP so I was just surprised to such a change in times without a reason that was apparent to me. I wrongly assumptions on how the whole thing worked and tried to make touring plans 6 weeks out.
TP does not function on static data, it functions on data that is regularly updated, and during same-day optimization, “live” data. The dependability of the TP info lies in the very large “n” of the sample size. Even though FPPs at opening are not “new”, it takes a while to collect enough data points to make statistical predictions with a high level of confidence.
Those of us who have using TP for a while have come to accept that wait times WILL change as months progress - sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse. The change that occurred a few weeks ago was much more significant than most, and it took many of us by surprise. I know it sucks that some of the wait times have increased - but I’d rather wait 20 min when that’s what I was expecting vice planning on getting on a ride in 5 min and then having to wait 20 min.
I was just re-evaluating my TPs yesterday to ensure latest estimates and did notice wait times added where I didn’t expect them, such as a wait time for Club Cool, Innoventions East & The Seas Pavillion. Not an issue because we’ll just use the time for restroom breaks, but it was still odd to see.
RD AK last Sunday: EE was walk on til about 9:15, by 9:45 posted 20 min wait. Given I’m tired & have poor memory that’s +/- 5. TP had 15 min waits shortly after rd. It did come to pass more quickly than I’m used to this time of year but not as quickly as TP predicted. CL 7
I saw a line for TTA that was halfway around the building. It was bumping into the Astro Orbiter line. This was on Tuesday of this week. I did Carousel of Progress and when I was out TTA was back to being walk-on. Longer waits do happen!
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