And also people have to remember that these are statistical PREDICTIONS based on complex mathematical models and a HUGE amount of data - but there are always confounding factors that a statistal algorithm cannot process. As a parallel, consider a weather forecast. Based on historical data, you can “predict” approximately what temperatures and chances of rain are going to be months in advance. When you get down to a 10 day window, you can get a bit more accurate based on current meteorological trends and prediction models. Once youre down to the 3 day point, the predictions will be much closer. But how many times have you heard a weather forecast that has said tomorrow will be sunny - and it turns out to be overcast all day.
I think we are getting spoiled. Doesn’t anyone else remember when you had NO idea of how long a wait would be until you actually walked up to the ride - and then didn’t know how accurate that time might actually be? It just frustrates - and OK, annoys - me that when we have these amazing tools available. people grouse because a wait time goes up by 10 min as a result of newer data and refined models.
I am sorry if my thoughts annoyed you. I didn’t last long in the chat because of people on there who felt the need to be rude. I was hoping that the forums would better. Obviously this is just not the right fit form me. Many people saw the change in wait times without a change in the crowd level and questioned it. They/we paid our money just like everyone else, so we/I thought we had the right to question it. Simple as that. There are a lot of other options out there.
Yep. All of the RD wait times pretty much jumped to the teens…
I rearranged my plans/FPs so we are prepared if this is what it ends up being. (Better prepared and have extra time if it is wrong than counting on short waits and having to end up skipping rides to make it work)
The 16 min wait at RD for JC was not okay with me, lol, so I changed my FPs around and now have a FP for it immediately following Pirates at RD.
Space still shows 16, and I do not want to FP it, so we shall see…
I’ve been watching the waits daily since these changes, and haven’t seen these times until later in the morning, (except for EMH ams) so I am not sure what the deal is, guess we will all find out!
Frustrating at first? YES! But, I am determined to make this go smoothly and be the best trip yet so DH allows us to go again SOON!
I made the changes and if we end up ahead of schedule, we’ll ride twice on some rides!
Good luck to everyone, I’ll post what I find Nov 30th-Dec 5th to those interested…
I was in the MK on the 20th (a listed CL 2 day), and the TP numbers were not even close - at any time during the day. DHS on the 17th was pretty far off as well.
@Dogslider - my appologies. In the past I have had nothing but spot-on success with TP times, but after this last trip I have to agree with you - things were way off.
@jac9014 - The TP times were all too short. Actually, I found the Disney times to be pretty close. PP: TP 10 min; Dis 20 min; Actual 20 min. Pooh: TP 8; Dis 25; Actual 20. SM: TP 12; Dis 35; decided not to wait. JC TP 10; Dis 35; Actual 25. HM: TP 12 min; Dis 25; Actual 30. PoC: TP 14; Dis 25; Actual 35…
@bswan26 Thank you so much for the feedback. All I can say is wow. I am still hoping that crowds will be lower in December, but I will plan in some more “skippable” attractions just in case we need to skip some stuff too. I am also starting to check out the app. Hopefully I’ll be able to submit some wait times which will help everyone with their future touring plans.
Here now, we did MK RD Sunday and Tuesday, the waits were not as high as listed. We went straight to Jungle Cruise and were on the first boat, walked on everything pretty much until I think 9:30 if not later. Keep in mind the opening time was 8am, but TP still had RD waits higher than experienced.
Our crowds were predicted a 4 and 3 and I think we had a 3 and 2-? SO that probably made a difference as well!
The wait times for the very first attraction at rope drop, which recently increased, were universally too high. Even at TSMM! That even includes the day we were way back in the pack at HS. We were consistently done with our second or often third step in the plan at the time it said we would finish the first. I don’t know if TP is trying to be like Disney and make sure that you’re always earlier than they advertise? Overall it didn’t bother us, just an observation.
