Despite what I said earlier, I wholehearted agree with this if Orlando is going to be directly affected by the storm.
It might be good to wait a day though because it’s still possible this storm could complete miss Florida altogether. More likely it will be a panhandle landfall. But if it’s crossing central Florida (which it still could), that’s a different story. Since the flights in question are later this week, there’s still time to watch and wait.
See, this is my trip. We don’t arrive until Sunday Oct 2. Which may be okay in Orlando depending on the track. But, I’m flying in from further up the east coast (BWI) and Sunday we could be having high winds and heavy rain there. I’m wondering if a change to Monday (Oct 3) would be better.
I just canceled my flight for Wednesday. Felt tired of guessing what this storm could do or where it’s heading. Hope everyone heading there stays safe!
Are you rescheduling for another day?
I rebooked my flight for Friday and I’ll hope for the best. If things change dramatically tomorrow I’ll attempt to switch it back. I have to be in Florida by Saturday for a wedding so I’m going to do my best to rearrange things so that we can have some park time post wedding instead of pre wedding. Wednesday and Thursday are just looking really awful right now. 
By Roger Simmons and Natalia Jaramillo
Orlando Sentinel
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Sep 25, 2022 at 11:37 pm
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Tropical Storm Ian’s forecast track at 11 p.m. Sunday, from the National Hurricane Center. (NOAA/National Hurricane Center)
Tropical Storm Ian, growing to near hurricane strength late Sunday night with winds of 65 mph, is still on track for a Florida landfall this week but there remains significant uncertainty of its track in the next 3 to 5 days.
In its 11 p.m. Sunday update, the National Hurricane Center shifted its projected path for Ian east again toward Florida.
The latest track forecasts Ian to make landfall north of Tampa Bay on Thursday evening as a Category 1 hurricane with maximum-sustained winds of 90 mph. This after Ian is expected to significantly increase in strength to a Cat 2 storm with winds of 100 mph by Monday night and to a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 mph off the coast of Southwest Florida on Wednesday morning.
But computer forecast models still aren’t in perfect alignment on where the storm may go – a landfall north of the Tampa Bay area or one farther north in Florida’s panhandle.
“The official track forecast has been shifted somewhat to the east of the previous one and is mainly a blend of the latest ECMWF and GFS [forecast model] predictions,” NHC forecasters said Sunday night. “It should again be stressed that there is still significant uncertainty in the track of Ian, especially in the 3-5 day time frame.”
New models holding firm With split camps of into #TampaBay or north into Florida’s big bend region. Models clearly show 48-60 hrs of intensification with peak Wednesday am. Then sheer quickly weakens as Ian approaches landfall. @HurricaneModels pic.twitter.com/XJgc3k4UF6
— Bill Karins (@BillKarins) September 26, 2022
“Users should not focus on the details of the track forecast at longer time ranges.”
Whether it’s a direct hit in west Central Florida or in the panhandle, future Hurricane Ian will have a significant impact weather in Florida this week.
“Regardless of Ian’s exact track and intensity, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of this week, and residents in Florida should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place,” the hurricane center warned.
“Follow any advice given by local officials and closely monitor updates to the forecast.”
The next forecast track adjustment from the NHC is scheduled for 5 a.m. Monday.
At 11 p.m. Sunday, Ian was located about 140 miles south of Grand Cayman and 390 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba, moving northwest at 13 mph. Ian’s tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from its center.
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Warnings and watches at 11 p.m. Sunday for Tropical Storm Ian, issued by the National Hurricane Center. (NOAA/National Hurricane Center)
The hurricane center said a Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the lower Florida Keys, from the Seven Mile Bridge south to Key West, including the Dry Tortugas.
A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Englewood southward to Chokoloskee on Florida’s west coast.
A Storm Surge Watch was issued for the Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West and the Dry Tortugas, and for Florida’s west coast from Englewood southward to the Card Sound Bridge, and for Florida Bay.
Hurricane Warnings remain for Grand Cayman and parts of Cuba, where significant wind and storm impacts are expected within the next 36 hours.
“Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph with higher gusts,” the NHC said Sunday. “Additional strengthening is forecast tonight, followed by more rapid strengthening on Monday and Tuesday. Ian is forecast to become a hurricane by early Monday and a major hurricane on Tuesday.”
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the lower Florida Keys on Tuesday. \Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the Florida west coast by Tuesday evening.
“Considerable flooding impacts are possible later this week in west central Florida,” the NHC said. “Additional flash and urban flooding, and flooding on rivers across the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Southeast cannot be ruled out for later this week.”
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Areas of possible flash flooding in Florida from expected Hurricane Ian, posted on Sunday at 11 p.m. by the National Hurricane Center. (NOAA/National Hurricane Center)
Florida will be impacted by the storm, regardless of where it may come ashore, Gov. Ron DeSantis said Sunday.
From Tallahassee, DeSantis urged Floridians Sunday to be prepared for the worst and pay attention to any shifts in the storm’s path.
“We are continuing to monitor Tropical Storm Ian,” DeSantis told reporters gathered at the state Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee.
John Cangialosi, a senior hurricane specialist at the Miami-based hurricane center, said it was not yet clear exactly where Ian will hit hardest. He said Floridians should begin preparations, including gathering supplies for potential power outages.
“At this point really the right message for those living in Florida is that you have to watch forecasts and get ready and prepare yourself for potential impact from this tropical system,” he said.
David Sharp, a forecaster with the National Weather Service in Melbourne, said now is time for Central Florida residents to pay attention to Ian’s forecast.
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Explanation of the National Hurricane Center’s forecast cone for storms. (NOAA/National Hurricane Center)
“Stay up to date with the forecasts,” Sharp said. “Small changes in the forecast can end up making a big difference by the time it gets to us on day four or five.”
“You always want to plan for the most likely scenario at the minimum and prepare for a reasonable worst case scenario which means how bad it could get,” Sharp said. “The current forecast is what we call the most likely scenario so with that we are concerned with flooding rain, with tropical storm force winds, and hurricane gusts and tornadoes.”
As for when the Ian could have the greatest impact on Central Florida, Sharp pointed to Wednesday.
“The most likely time is Wednesday afternoon, evening about that time, so you definitely want to have things done by Wednesday morning, Wednesday afternoon the latest,” Sharp said. “Before we see the winds we are going to see rain … so you don’t want to be running around when the roads might be flooded or there’s tornado warnings.”
“The hazards that we’re concerned most about this time is flooding rain … also there’s a concern for tropical storm force winds with hurricane gusts right now,” Sharp said.
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This water vapor satellite image shows Tropical Storm Ian, lower right, starting to intensify Sunday night. (NOAA/National Hurricane Center)
Across Central Florida, schools were monitoring Ian’s progress.
Bethune Cookman University, a private historically black university in Daytona Beach, announced a mandatory campus evacuation beginning Monday at noon with no return date set yet and students in residents halls were encouraged to evacuate as soon as Sunday.
At BCU classes will be moved online only on Tuesday, according to a letter by the Office of Academic Affairs on Saturday.
At the University of Central Florida, campus will remain open with a status update coming on Monday to decide university operations for the coming week.
Rollin College in Winter Park, will announce a decision on whether or not to close campus on Sunday, according to their official social media.
The University of South Florida in Tampa will keep campus operations open and classes as scheduled pending an update Sunday evening, according to the official university website.
Florida State University and the University of Florida are continuing to monitor the storm before announcing any changes to campus operations or classes, according to their official social media pages.
Both universities ask their students to plan and prepare as well as ensure they are up to date with their university’s emergency alert system.
It’s looking more and more like that was the right call. Although if you’re flying over or through Georgia to get there, that could be an issue. Crossing my fingers for you for good luck!
We are flying from OKC to ATX and then to Orlando, so we should hopefully be okay?? Fingers crossed.
I gotta tell you, I have been her for 30 years. I’ve lived through a no-named storm that didn’t move for days, Hurricane Georges, a single year with Bonnie, Charlie , and Ivan (including the day-after effects of Charlie’s direct impact when I helped a friend find her elderly father), and Hurricane Irma in '17.
We’re on the bottom lip of the mouth of Tampa Bay. The current euro track hits about 100 miles south of us, and the GFS model hits about 100 miles north of us. It is projected to be a Cat 3 / Cat 4 with a better than 50% chance of direct impact in our area. The local meteorologists have stopped talking about ‘possible’ scenarios and started talking about ‘probable’ scenarios. None of them are great. All of them are talking about sustained tropical storm force winds for an excess of 24 hours. Right now, the ‘best case’ scenario is if it stays 100 miles offshore to minimize wind damage.
For the first time in the 30 years here, we are heading out. Already grabbed hotel rooms in the Atlanta 'burbs where the older kids live. Plannign on staying until the weekend. We are spending the day boarding up here and heading out Tuesday morning.
This one is not one to screw with. The storm-force winds will most likely extend thru WDW and onto the east coast of Florida - for how long, I don’t know. Serious supply disruptions are to be expected, including gas. Expect some serious disruptions to your vaca if you are going to be here the latter part of this week.
Maybe I should do a trip report…
That’s a supportive heart. Stay safe. DH is kind of freaking out because we are new to this. Hoping we are prepared. I hope it helps that we are inland more than you. USF cancelled classes all week. Publix put a hold on any changes and they are prepping to move everything to the Atlanta systems (computer stuff that is)
Yeah, this is not going to be a first-timer’s event. If the GFS model.holds, you’ll have some wind damage but should be largely OK. If the euro model holds, you’ll be getting a direct hit of a possible Cat 2ish storm.
Either way, I’d be boarding up and plan on extended time without power. In Irma, we went 36 hrs without power. Across town, the kids went 5 days… and that was on the ‘good’ side of the storm.
We are using our neighbors as guides. All of them are natives and sticking around so hopefully they know what they are doing 
The latest track forecasts Ian to make landfall north of Tampa Bay early Friday as a Category 1 hurricane with maximum-sustained winds of 90 mph, but be parked just miles off Tampa as a Category 3 hurricane on Thursday afternoon.
“It should again be stressed that there is still significant uncertainty in the track of Ian, especially in the 3-5 day time frame, and users should not focus on the details of the track forecast at longer time ranges,” said NHC forecasters in the storm discussion noting some models have it making landfall farther south along the Florida coast with others putting it north in the Panhandle.
Either way the system is expected to undergo rapid intensification today gaining strength to a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 100 mph by this afternoon and to blow up into a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 140 mph off the coast of Southwest Florida by early Wednesday morning.
Yeah, this is the point where you leave the national talking heads and move to the local talking heads. If NOAA says one thing and all the local weather people are saying another - guess which one I’m listening to.
Drive safe. I thought there was more traffic than normal yesterday morning on I-95 northbound. I assumed it was ppl from so. FL driving way ahead of the storm
I have to enable you to do a trip report–yours are always interesting.
Your post is quite ominous. You seem like the type of person that rolls with things, so for you to be taking these precautions… I’m glad you all are heading out, and I hope everyone stays safe!!
That is entirely accurate, on both counts.
Any guesses if and/or when WDW closes? I’m thinking probably going to close on Wednesday afternoon. Everyone down there please stay safe.
I just changed our flights from Thursday morning to Saturday morning. I didn’t want to risk waiting too long and not getting on a flight. If it’s still bad, then I’ll adjust again. I’m keep all of you Floridians in my thoughts and prayers!!
