Personally I wouldnāt change my flight unless your airline urges you to or cancels it. Chances are that Orlando itself will be largely unaffected. At worst they may cancel flights if the weather in the area becomes impossible to work around, or if the track changes . If that happens, the decision will be made for you, so just be ready. But if things go well, youāll have those extra 2-3 days for your vacation.
That said, if it makes you feel better to change things now to have it all settled and not have to worry about contingencies, go for it.
The downside of waiting until itās cancelled is having to compete with everyone else that was cancelled to get a new flight. Elsa cancelled our flight last year but I jumped on a rebooked for the next day instead of waiting for American to reschedule for me.
I feel your panic! Iām supposed to fly in on Thursady morning. That seems unlikely now. Southwest is allowing changes, so I have a big decision to make. Iām not sure if Friday will be any better? Ugh!
So the graphic that I posted earlier is the default āearliest reasonable arrival time of TS force windsā. Which is pretty key for those doing hurricane prep.
But there is a toggle to show āmost likely arrival timeā. Iām thinking a Wednesday flight will likely beat the weather in, and based on current projections, I donāt think WDW is likely to get more that tropical storm level winds, or maybe Cat 1. That is subject to change, of course. Thursday morning might be a little dicier and more dependent on specific track.
Thanks for the info. I really wish we could leave earlier, but my DD27 is a dietitian with patients scheduled M-W. I canāt decided whether to change our fight to Friday or Saturday.
Yeah, but youāll need to fly across the most likely path. They seem really uncertain on the path and speed, so not sure how best to time that. I almost wonder if youāre best off sticking with Thur morning because they might be able to fly east and then south around it?
Can you tell how full flights are looking for Fri/Sat to know how quickly you need to decide? Another day of data might decrease some of the uncertainty.
Thanks for your thoughts. Itās so tricky! So far, flights Friday and Sat are still available. Weāre a hub, so we have four direct fights to/from MCO a day.
I think part of it will be how much potential they feel like there is for damage to planes parked at the airport in Orlando. If they think it wonāt be that bad, they may still have flights coming in Thur morning. If they think it will be bad enough to damage parked planes, they could try to get as many planes as possible out on Wed and not bring any in on Thur morning, even if they can get in ahead of the storm. If they expect the planes to be ok, I expect then they will keep flying in as long as itās safe to fly.
I know that sort of data is a factor in their decision making from comments here and there, but I have no idea how to parse that out at a practical level to make any predictions.
Iāll keep feeding you as much data as I spot that might be helpful.
I always overthink All The Things, so I feel your pain. How adaptable is your travel party if travel gets wonky? (Being delayed in airports with infants/toddlers is at lot more difficult than teens/adultsā¦usuallyā¦ )
I have a very strong reaction to these kinds of discussions when they come up, as Iām looking at storm preparation and effects from a very different perspective.
If central Florida faces the threat of a tropical system when you have plans to be there, and you have the chance to change those plans, absolutely change those plans.
If the storm takes a more eastern track, which is as likely as not right now, there will be hurricane force winds and strong rain across central Florida. The parks will close Wednesday and Thursday, and possibly Friday. Hotel and food services will be curtailed. Youāll be directed to stay in your rooms. Debris will be on the internal roads for days and transportation will be difficult. Off-property grocery stores, retail, and gas stations will not be operating normally.
The parks will close and thatās not just for guest safety. Cast members will need time to prepare their homes. Very few will be considered essential and regardless of what one can say about Disney management right now theyāre not going to be put in jeopardy. Yes there are ride-out crews but thatās a small fraction of normal cast.
So, even if youāre there, youāre going to be spending Disney money to sit around your hotel room. Yes, itās disappointing to change plans that youāve had for possibly a long time, but if you can change them, do it.
I always second guess myself.
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