I’m seriously considering a DVC membership, probably resale, but am not sure how to think about the potential value of my contract if I were to sell it after 10 or so years. I have 3 school aged kids and we have been averaging a trip to Disney about once a year. We tend to travel during low seasons (Sept-Oct or May) and stay 3-4 nights at deluxe resorts either renting points or booking off-peak discounted rooms. I’m OK staying wherever and we usually book 1-2 bedroom rooms because of our large groups, so am looking at an SSR resale contract for the value, as it looks like I can usually book a 1 or 2 bed option at our preferred resorts (BCV, BWV) even at 7 months. And I’m OK staying at SSR or elsewhere if I can’t get those.
I figure if we continue averaging about 1 trip per year, I’ll only break even on my 200 SSR points after about 10 years around the time my youngest is out out of the house and we stop going to Disney on the regular. At this point, at least in my model I’d plan to sell the contract. But I have no idea how to think about what the potential resale value would be at this point? Does anyone know of any data on this to help my massive spreadsheet?
A complicating factor would be if I bought into BCV instead at a higher price point. Since that resort only has 20 years left on the contract, and would only have 10 when I’d be looking to sell, what do we think resale values would be at that point?
Thanks in advance for any thoughts or insight! This is an area that I’m really lost on.
I think it is hard to predict what the resale value will look like that far out. Disney does a good job of protecting the value of their resorts…but things, as you noted, may look quite different as you near the end of the contract’s life.
As such, I think it is wise to make a decision assuming that you might likely not get much at all when it sell it. If you do sell it for a nice amount, all the better…but the financial decision whether to buy now or not should probably be based more on how you plan to actually use it.
Having said that, when you do go to sell it, if the price falls too low, Disney will execute ROFR, so that they can then sell it back at full price (possibly with an extended date). This is where I think MOST likely the value will be preserved…because it isn’t just other vacationers in the mix, but Disney as well…and they don’t want to see devaluation of their direct DVC prices by allowing resale contracts to sell for too low of price.
No one can explain the current high cost of BC and I would not expect it to maintain that price (but who knows?).
I personally think the only value you should count on is how much you will be paying for each of your stays over the ten years vs rack or rental stays. Could you save money and/or make money? Maybe- if rental prices never increase it would be 200 x $20 for 10 years? 40k? Your dues will be equal to approximately one night a year?
The closer you get to the end of a contract (like BCV in 2042), the more volatile / unpredictable the resale price is going to be, because people will only be buying a few years worth of points + the possibility of Disney giving an extension discount similar to what they did for OKW (there is no indication that will happen - hopefully they’ll announce something on that before it’s too late. The OKW situation was a disaster, so it will probably be different).
I would assume you’re going to get basically what you paid for it, as long as there are at least 10 years or so left on your contract. You will probably get more based on history.
Going with @ryan1’s method of assuming zero is conservative, but will leave you less disappointed if things go south.
DVC Resale Market is good resource for questions like this - for example, the FAQ includes a history of increases in dues:
*Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is the year over year growth rate of the dues over a multiple-year period
**Aulani Contracts that originated pre-July 6th, 2011 have dues in 2022 of $6.52/pt.
***Vero Contracts that originated pre-January 1st, 1996 have dues in 2022 of $9.41/pt.
And for a more extensive history of resale prices, check out the ROFR threads on Disboard. In the lead post you can look at periods going back to 2013 and you can follow a property and see how resale values have changed over time. For example, in July 2013, BCV was reselling at $85-100 per point. In April 2022, they were selling for $170-180 per point.
The more I think about it, the more I’m with you on this. Unless Disney steps in to extend the contracts (and I don’t even know how they would do that…), values will have to fall off a cliff in the last 10 or so years I would think.
I am honestly surprised that the 2042 resorts have not yet started to drop in price. You can get a similarly priced contract for literally double the years left right now. I think it just speaks to the strong value of the locations. We bought a 25 point BWV contract in 2020 and I still think we got it for a steal as the price has gone up. I think at some point there will be a race to the bottom but probably not for a while yet. I would love to add a BRV contract.
One other thing that I’ve noticed about these older contracts are that there are HUGE ones out there. I think because originally the minimums were much higher. But looking at BRV there were 200+, 300+ and I definitely even saw 500+ point contracts for sale. I think those will drop in price sooner than any of the smaller ones.
I wonder if there is any precedent for what Disney might do with those resorts as 2042 nears. Will they convert to cash resort bookings? Fund renovations by writing new contracts? Extend contracts, but at what cost? Would DVC members at other resorts still be able to use their points there? So many questions! I might have grandkids I want to take to stormalong bay someday
But…we’re still talking 20 years out. As we get closer…Disney will need to decide what they want to do with the DVCs. If they don’t see it as a money maker any longer, they might choose not to extend the contract dates. I suspect, however, they will likely want to either convert or extend the dates for new DVC purchases. If that’s the case, then in the resale market, Disney would want to make sure the value of the resort is maintained. This means that, for example, if I were to try to sell my DVC points, there is going to be a minimum that Disney would allow before they execute ROFR. This would keep the value of direct sales…but the direct sales might now extend out to, say, 2060 (or whatever) instead. The resale value will be considerably lower, for sure, than direct (as is the case today), but not so low that people would flock to resale purchases even for short term ownership.
They might also decide to offer the ability to purchase “extensions” to contract dates to those would currently own at a resort.
In the end, though, as I mentioned above, I don’t think we can count on or predict much of anything.
When I bought SSR on the resale market, I did the math to see that after I book 5 trips, I’ll will have broken even. Since the contract is through 2054, I won’t have any trouble benefiting in the long run, so that even if I try to sell and make almost nothing after those 5 trips, I’m still better off.
All conjecture, but I am sure Disney wants to resell BCV and BWV with a higher points chart and a block out of resale points being used. They are just sooo attractive and I am sure will sell quickly. If today were 2042, I would buy a new contract in a heartbeat.
BRV is tough because of point charts needing to match CCV. And OKW is just a mess.
This is something I keep in mind when I buy resale, that the 2042 resorts may be gone in 20 years (HHI) or I may be blocked from using my points if they are flipped.
If I was Disney, looking down the road, I would have a big star on 2042 as the year they can stop building new resorts and start flipping existing ones!
I think converting, or even rebuilding, is much more likely than extending.
The extending at OKW was a disaster in every sense of the word. They cannot force people to extend, and if they have any units where some have extended and others haven’t, as far as I understand it then they have a major obstacle to doing anything. … because people have a deeded interest in that unit they are limited in what they can do. And a unit can be anything from one GV to a block of rooms.
And they also have the problem of people who didn’t extend but also didn’t sign a quit claim. It’s a legal headache and a logistical nightmare.
Like you said the OKW extension probably didn’t go as planned, but I don’t think it’s a terrible headache. It expires when it expires and unextended contracts will just expire in 2042. Each year it’s a smaller pool of 2042 contracts with Disney converting to 2057 upon 2042 ROFR exercise. After 2042 whatever is left will likely just be resold as new for the remaining 15 years. It’ll effectively be a lower priced option compared to whatever 2042 resort they resell first.
Everyone has a theory on 2042s and my own is as follows:
Boulder Ridge will offer an extension to 2068. After 2068 Disney retires both CC and BRV and creates one larger association with both.
OKW will continue toward a 2057 expiration.
Beach Club will have a shorter extension, maybe about 10 years to 2047
Boardwalk will be the first entirely retired in 2042 and resold with updated point charts after a pretty extensive renovation.
BC is more popular and they can make a killing on a short extension. This would allow Disney to get out from under Boardwalk lower point charts. By the time they renovate Boardwalk and resell it, I’ll be about time to do the same to BC.
I think any resort that is pulled off with plans to resell, those owners will be offered the equivalent of a cruise line refundable “placeholder” that will effectively be a smaller discount on any currently sold DVC resort and a bigger discount to rebuy at the replacement resort (e.g. Boardwalk owner buying into new Boardwalk).
Selling points for a 15 year term will have to be priced very low. Which means people will snap them up and be able to use them as sleeparoynd points.
There is also a legal implication, I don’t fully understand it but I think that the end date is 2057 then unless people signed a quitclaim, then there is a question over their status. They didn’t agree to end their rights as an owner. Kind of like squatters! I think there needs to be some paperwork done by DVC legal.