Here now and TP way way off


#1

Touring plans crowd predictions were soooo wrong since Sunday, off before that too but wow the last 3 days! TP predicted a 3 for one of the parks and it was a 10. I think they were more off the last few days than back this past January and February which had been widely discussed. Anyway, why did they predict low to medium crowds and it has been solid 10s Monday and Tuesday and Sunday, 8 at every park? I mean it is a school break for many so how did they so vastly underestimate the crowds? The crowd calendar is about all I use TP for and so I don’t think I will renew.


#2

I agree that the crowd calendar was way off. There have been a number of threads here that there is a similar issue with President’s week. That being said, I have a trip planned for President’s week, and I am planning for crowds. These days I think it is always best to plan for 10s, and be pleasantly surprised if it is less.

I am responding to this thread because I am amazed by this! Take away my liner card, but I have not paid attention to the crowd calendar for years. I also have a TP subscription that expires in 2021. Why do I love Touring Plans? First, my trip during a week that I think will be 10s suddenly added an After Hours event. My ‘Ohana ADR no longer worked. The reservation finder found me a time two hours earlier within two weeks. I have filled out the TP room request every time I have booked a standard view room at AKL, I have always gotten those rooms with giraffes outside my window. But the most important thing about Touring Plans is that at any time of the day or night I can go to the chat feature in the app and say: Help! Where is the Uber pick up at… or is this the correct amount to be charges…or- anyone have a discount code for…

TPs taught me about FPs, and FPP. It has taught me about transportation in the world, resorts, dining. Years later, it still teaches me something new almost every single day.

The crowd calendar may be off at times. I hope you see the value in all that it has to offer.


#3

I concur. Well said.


#4

Yeah, I could see how if all you’re using is the crowd calendar, that that wouldn’t be worth paying for. There are a lot of free crowd calendars out there. That being said, it seems like if you’d been taking part in the other features you paid for with the subscription maybe you’d have gotten your money’s worth and been more prepared? I don’t think I’d pay for something that I was only using one function I could get for free elsewhere.


#5

I cut and pasted this post from another forum. It demonstrates the value of a TP subscription better than anything I could write…

'Will be visiting only Epcot, on a Tuesday or Wednesday in early December. Am planning to buy ticket at the gate, to avoid going on a day when the weather may not be good.

Does it make sense to arrive an hour after the gates open, as I am assuming there’s a large crush of people waiting for the gates to open?’


#6

I agree with you on the value or the subscription, for me it’s been great. However, just to clarify, aren’t the features you mentioned (ADR finder, fax sending) all part of the free service? I don’t think chat is though and that’s probably my favorite part.


#7

The ADR feature is available with the free subscription. I have never read that the fax service is? I believe you need to set up a trip on your dashboard. Can you do that for free?


#8

You are probably right. I didn’t try that feature before I subscribed. The ADR finder is such a great feature for free. I kind of wish that subscribers had access to more searches, they could reduce non subscribers to 1 search and give subscribers 5 and probably still end up with similar volume. I’m not sure if Disney has rules against that being a premium service within a multi service site.


#9

They started the two search limit since so many liner TAs were using the feature for their clients.


#10

They posted on facebook yesterday or monday about this. Last several weeks have been pretty bad. On Nov. 5th I was at HS, predicted CL 1. Actual CL was 6, can you imagine how badly my TP was out of whack ??? Disappointing to say the least but I agree with others that there is much value elsewhere. The Line app was awesome for us and pretty much saved the entire trip.


#11

Couldn’t agree more!
Learned so much from TP and I don’t pay much attention to the crowd calender.

Need to know some info about WDW? Come here and search first, before you google!


#12

I agree with PrincipalTinker. I actually use Kenny the Pirates crowd calendar to pick my parks. Kenny, by the way lists every day this week as insane crowds. I really like the personalized touring plans and reservation finder through TP.


#14

So curious… if reoptimizing in the park, do the plans adjust for the new CL? Just wondering how quickly the data gets updated.

We are going MLK weekend and looking at 5-7 predicted CLs, but with it being holiday weekend, I’m wondering if it will also spike.


#15

I agree. The crowd calendars are only a small part of what TP offers.


#16

I think the real issue is that WDW becoming too complex to accurately predict using historical data. Not only have there been new rides/attractions added, new/expanded resorts, changing operating hours, added “before/after” hours events, seasonal pricing on everything from resorts to tickets, and the (at least rumored) practice of “randomly” running rides at less than full capacity all make concrete data analysis all but impossible. And the fact is, with the improving economy, more people are going to WDW than a few years ago, so a CL5 this year is not the same as a CL5 of several years ago…

From a cash flow business plan perspective, the ideal for Disney would be to have the exact same crowd level every day of the year. To this end they are incentivizing times that were historically “low crowd” times and de-incentivizing times that were historically “high crowd” times. And it appears to be working…

For me, who only gets to WDW once every few years, things like CLs and TPs would never make subscribing “worth” the money. It’s the shared knowledge and community of friends that I have made initially through Chat and now in the Forums that keep me coming back (even if I’ve never met most of them, or even know their “real” names).


#17

I love TP and have been a subscriber and user since before my 2014 trip. I don’t choose my vacation dates or park days based on the crowd calendar here or elsewhere but I do make personalized touring plans to see what we can hope to accomplish on the days we have chosen. For all my trips to date, the TPs have worked great barring ride closures, weather, etc.

But if TP predicts a CL of 3 and it’s really a 10, how do you adjust your TP in real time? Does optimize on lines app take current wait times into account at that moment? In that case, should you optimize after every attraction? I’ve never needed to do this.


#18

Remember: the crowd level is not based on crowds, but on the number of doughnuts in Len™’s Magic Bag.


#19

Ditto, I love Touring plans for too many reasons to list and I don’t care that the crowd calenders are off,


#20

I like ‘ditto’. It is one of those words that has gone out of fashion, like ‘oblique’. I hate ‘slash’!


#21

Maybe they need to add gas prices in as a factor. More people may be driving due to lower prices. It also may be keeping airline prices down.