Here now and TP way way off


#22

You could always take up standard USMIL terminology, and say “stroke” instead… :wink:


#23

Actually, with all the features TP has, to me it’s a real bargain. I’ve often remarked to DH how planning a trip to WDW is like organizing an expedition into the backcountry. There are a lot of moving parts and this site is critical to my ability to organize it all.

I hadn’t used it in a few years and when I renewed, was very pleasantly surprised to see the upgrades. (Bonus points for all my old plans still being there, which was kind of a fun trip down memory lane).


#24

My gift to everyone on this thread:

A non TP tool that went down when FPP was introduced seems to be working again:


#25

That’s a great resource. Not sure why TT looks weird for February but that tool makes it clear that the #1 hardest to get FP is SDD. Clearly if that’s a priority plan late in trip and book at 7:00 on the dot.


#26

I wonder if there’s scheduled maintenance for TT? Maybe one of the tracks is down.


#27

I was there last week and I didn’t believe the crowd calendars going into it for one minute. If you looked at last year’s crowds during Thanksgiving week, they were straight across the board 10s in each and every park most of the week. I assumed it would be the same and I was right.

Many people seem to be still under the impression that crowd calendars are gospel, which only leads disappointment. I guess everyone has to learn at some point that you should go when you want to and assume large crowds - then be pleasantly surprised if you get lucky and find low wait times.


#28

That is great. Is there a link to a live version of the same thing?


#29

I think that link is only updated daily. It has always been designed to give you an idea of when to try to book those really hard FPs before your FP day. They seem to get some really good info well in advance too. I remember when they stopped offering the Wishes FPs, they noted it on their calendar as unavailable a long time before anyone knew what was going on.


#30

Oh sweet. I didn’t realize it would update. I thought it was static.

Interesting that some of the rides I would think were popular (Splash, Space, Soarin’) don’t make the list.


#31

Yes, it is interesting that they say those can usually be booked a day in advanced.


#32

TP does a pretty good job with the Crowd Calendar, but it’s based on historical data and things change - Disney could change staffing levels on a whim, ride closures could change the crowd levels, etc. In general I think it’s fine to use them as a guide, but always have a good TP, which is the real value of this site.


#33

I completely agree with this assessment. In fact - I think one of the reasons that Disney chose to go to a tiered pricing model on their tickets is that it’s becoming difficult for them to predict when the crowds will show up. Yes, they could (and do) incentivize things like hotel bookings, but that doesn’t always sway the crowds a significant amount.

In addition, a huge part of the “crowd feeling” has to do with how much staff Disney choosing to put in a park on a particular day. Running both sides of ToT, for instance, will wildly change the wait times on that ride. And there are many other rides that increase or decrease capacity (and therefore wait times) based on staffing.

So I guess ultimately, if Disney is having a hard time predicting crowds, it is nearly impossible for TP to do so! But I appreciate their efforts all the same.


#34

I think that Disney is micromanaging crowd levels to an extent that we don’t understand yet. Magicbands have given them digital reams of data. Closing down rides or parts of rides, managing park hours, now the new ticketing system, it’s all designed to keep crowd levels just high enough where they make money and yet not so intolerable that people won’t come.

This gives them the opportunity to be more nimble, and change things faster than they have in the past. There’s no way TP can keep up with any of this. Plus, there are outside factors- from the weather to the economy- that are constantly changing. Disney now has the ability to respond to those outside changes better than ever.

My concern is that they’re going to get so good at this that the in-park differences from ride to ride are eventually going to go away. Shutting down parts of rides, or opening later (like Dinosaur, which isn’t reflected in the Touring Plans algorithms yet, BTW) will be more frequent. Then being in the know won’t have as much value. Money will always have value, though, and that’s the whole point of things like dessert parties, EMM, VIP tours, Club level fast passes.

The race won’t go to the swift, it’ll go to the ones who can pay for it, which is ultimately what Disney really wants.


#35

No doubt. My little sister called me a couple weeks ago as I am the Disney ‘‘expert’’ in the family (I went 3 times compared to zero times for everybody else LOL). She wanted to get an idea of the price for her to bring her 2 boys. There is abolutely no way she can afford it, which makes me sad for my nephews. I am working on a way to make my too-proud sister accept me paying for them at some point. More and more Disney is for the rich. And unfortunately some parents who desperately want their kids to live the magic will end up putting themselves in financial trouble (I guess it’s probably already happening a lot).


#36

At some point, I feel it all has to implode.

Due to pricing, I have trouble believing it will ultimately draw many additional people into their parks by doing these tricks to “balance” the load. So, they offer deals, etc., during off periods. Cheaper tickets, etc. But will that draw in NEW crowds? Maybe a little. But I think it more likely just SHIFTS existing crowds from choosing one week to another week. So, rather than pay $5000 to go week X, they will take advantage of the savings on week Y and go then for $4000. Even if they then pay extra for additional they wouldn’t otherwise pay for, it isn’t REALLY bringing in more money. It might even be costing them some profit.

Yes, there will be SOME people who come who wouldn’t otherwise…but I really doubt it is a lot. It is already just too expensive for a lot of people.


#37

Truth–

I liked the other way better. I have (or can acquire) more “in the know” than money. :laughing: or maybe :sob:


#38

Oh, that’s so sad for your little nephews- but great that they have you! Maybe you could set up some type of fund and tell your sis that you could contribute to that instead of presents throughout the year- then contribute a bit more than you had planned…

I guess I’m pessimistic about this because I’ve had a closeup look at the staffing abilities of other highly complex, rapidly changing facilities i.e. hospitals. A few years ago, we’d have a two-week lag in ability to staff properly. That time has dropped dramatically. This is what Disney is doing- they are managing their CMs to the nth degree, and they’re going to get better and better at it as more data becomes available. They’ll be constantly tweaking things, hour by hour. It’s going to be hard to keep up with that.


#39

I believe a lot of the messing around they are doing is work behind the scenes preparing for the opening of SWGE which is going to bring down the house


#40

Years ago, before we had kids, my wife and I went to Disney and brought our niece with us because there was no way they would ever be able to afford to go. Ever. (Which has ultimately played out to be true, 20 years later.) So glad we were able to bring her to have that experience.


#41

Oh, yeah. Def.