I agree with this 100%, that’s why I posted on this topic. To reiterate that there are highly trained people, who have made careers out to understanding diseases, how they spread, and how to stop them. Those people have the latest & most accurate information available at this point and they are communicating to the public about the coronavirus. Those are the people we should all be listening to (and to my knowledge none of them are telling people not to go to Disney World right now).
I posted for that reason and to add the “herd immunity” concept into the discussion, which i think isn’t known or understood by many (not necessarily on this thread, just in general).
I’m kind of in the middle. I make my kids clean their hands before eating or after blowing their nose. But I have not wiped down plane seats (I will next trip or I will think about all the germs while sitting there after all these articles about it) or make my kids clean their hands after attractions. We have yet to get sick after a Disney trip. Now will I take precautions in May? Yes I will. Probably because I am more hyper aware.
I think the biggest problem with choosing which information to listen to…EVEN FROM EXPERTS…is that you don’t know what their agenda may be.
For example, take a person from the CDC. They are an expert…but even if they don’t fully believe it will turn out to be as dangerous as it seems, without enough data to be sure, they will always err on the side of caution for fear that if they publicly say otherwise and are WRONG, heads will roll.
It leaves everyone second-guessing everyone else. Plus, there have been countless times in science when the experts agree whole-heartedly on a position…only to later, changes their minds based on newer observations and data.
One example of this (unrelated to COVID 19) is something that happened to my DS20 last year. He’s anaphylactic to peanuts. They were over to our house during a family party, and someone had given him a box of Hostess Ho-Hos. In the past, he’d always been able to eat them, and didn’t think about it…until he ate one and immediately starting feeling funny. He checked the box, and they had changed their recipe. They now actually contain peanut flour.
So, we whip out the Epi-Pen and inject him, plus give him Benedryl. His wife then went with him to the E.R. . While there, the E.R. docs told him that he shouldn’t have taken the Epi-Pen. This confused us. Why would he have said this?
Well, a visit to the allergist a year later cleared this up. The allergist said don’t listen to the E.R. docs. They just didn’t like the fact that now they had to keep a heart monitor on him for 4 hours…which they wouldn’t have to do if he hadn’t used the Epi-pen. (Nevermind without the Epi-Pen, he could have died!)
Yes. My kid’s anaphylaxis is way more of a concern to me than corona virus. And the fact that as a 19 year old he’d getting a little sloppy makes it more likely than ever before.
The death numbers ARE inflated from this as there are some countries (Iran in particular) that are ONLY reporting the sickest and the deaths. Not the people treated for mild cases.
Not saying people aren’t dying, but the percentage is not AS high as the largest figures because they are being skewed.
That may be part of the reason, but remember that underestimating a public health concern could have dire consequences so they are overly cautious because people may die if they aren’t cautious enough and are wrong. In fact, in the case of Coronavirus, many people have pointed to China’s (lack of) response early on as one of the reasons it spread so widely so quickly.
I once laughed in the face of an ER doctor who explained to me that the CT scan revealed that my wife was suffering from uterine fibroids. He was very offended until I explained to him that my wife didn’t have a uterus. Her gynecologist laughed when she told him about it, and told her that those guys don’t know what they’re looking at when it comes to the female reproductive system. Ask me why I don’t take medical professionals at face value.
Oh, I’m not saying anything is wrong for such a position…only that it skews the message. What the expert is telling you, and what things actually are might not be the same thing.
As was pointed out, for example, the current statistics on the death rate are skewed high because there is KNOWN underreporting of mild cases. The trouble is, HOW many cases are there that aren’t being included in the data? No one knows, and there is no way to know. So, we have no choice but to use the inflated numbers until more data shows otherwise.
Also, the fact that just yesterday it was announced that they now see there are two different strains of this virus…one of which is not so dangerous. So, what does that do to our data? How do we know which strain is found where? We don’t, but it has serious implications as to what the actual death rate might be going forward.
Yes, our almost DS17 has gotten better in some ways, but he spends most of his time figuring out why he CAN eat EVERYTHING rather than determine if something is safe or questionable and make his decisions based on that. Not looking forward to college years.
The statistics aren’t skewed high per se, but you have to know what those death rates mean. The death rates you see, for instance 3.4% reported by WHO, are the percentage of deaths with respect to reported cases. Unreported cases aren’t factored in & I don’t believe there’s a good way to estimate them at this time (though I could be wrong). In this case, WHO is not trying to tell us what percentage of people who have contracted the virus have died from it. There is no way for them to know that.
But even the experts are acknowledging that there is a group of people with mild symptoms or nor symptoms at all (but have the virus).
Is the 3.4% number as accurate as we could hope for at this point? Probably. But we have to know that this represents the percentage of reported cases that result in death. With such a new disease, that is the best information there is.
My son came home from college in December with the flu. Well - I diagnosed it. He had a fever, headache, sore throat, cough, runny nose, body aches and he slept 21 hours, got up and showered, had a light meal and went back to bed for 12 hours. I woke him and alternated acetaminophen and ibuprofen around the clock. He also had NOT gotten his flu shot on campus. I didn’t take him to the doctor, so there’s an unconfirmed and unreported possible case.
Statistics on any of these illnesses have plenty of room to be skewed, intentionally or unintentionally.
There are worse things than being quarantined on a Disney boat
If you are quarantined, you are confined to your cabin 24 hours a day with one TV and hopefully working internet. Hopefully you have a veranda. Frankly, a Disney boat is probably the last place you want to be quarantined.
Back around 2000-2003 I got the flu and was able to call my doctor and over the phone get an rx of the anti-flu med that works great, but you have to start it asap. I got better very quickly. Fast forward to 2009 and the N1H1. At the end of the school year (I’m a h.s. teacher) I got sick with a flu. I again called my doctor for medication and this time was told I could not be given a rx per CDC directions until I had gone to a clinic - that I’d never been to - and been tested for N1H1. Also, I could not go to my doctor’s office.
There was no way that I was going to go to some unknown clinic filled with even more sick people - my husband never got sick and I wasn’t going to risk him since he needed to be able to take care of me. Also, I literally could not leave the house I was too weak. Unfortunately that meant that instead of being sick for a few days I was sick for more than a week. I have a master’s in Statistics so I get needing to collect data but the way the CDC went about trying to do it was despicable. Ever since I have been skeptical of their motives and ways of doing things.
I might understand if the timing of the medication wasn’t so critical to it’s success. But delay for any reason is not “do no harm”.
Ugh, I’m sure that was a miserable experience. I’m curious, though, did something specific happen that made you question the CDC’s motives with H1N1? What you describe is pretty much what I would expect the CDC to do in that situation (crappy as it may be for a person who is sick).
Also, at the time I got sick, it had become obvious that the severity of the outbreak was not as bad as feared. It was not at the beginning when the were trying to figure things out for the “public good” and at the point that I got sick (as best as I can remember) it was on it’s way out. Also, the fact that they convinced decent, caring doctors to put their patients in harms way still makes me mad. I don’t remember the exact words my doctor’s office used and to be fair I had a fever etc but there was something to how they responded that was so unlike them and I’ve been going to them for over 20 years. A lot had to due with the complete difference in how two very similar situations were handled.I lay in bed practically delirious from fever and I still KNEW that I didn’t have to, shouldn’t have to be feeling like I was.
As a teacher it was during final exam time which I missed days I shouldn’t have had to, not to mention having to use up sick hours that didn’t need to be used if I had been allowed to get the medicine in time. The CDC did not offer to pay for my substitute on the extra days I was sick (yes sarcasm).
If I hadn’t called in the window that the med was effective then their methods would have been more understandable, but time was of the essence. I’m sure that there are many competent and caring doctors that work for the CDC, but as an organization they are neither. IMHO
I agree. I think it comes down to not having people self diagnose and “use up” the Tamiflu (it does get in short supply, particularly in long and heavy flu seasons). It seems to me, though, that the doctor’s office could have performed the test, vs another clinic. But perhaps the clinics were set up to alleviate strain on offices? Hard to say ten years later.
I completely understand that, thanks for sharing. I’m fortunate that I have never been caught in the crosshairs of when the CDC (or state level health orgs) make decisions that aren’t necessarily the best for sick individuals in hopes of them being the best for the greater good.
I suppose that depends on who’s sharing your cabin, haha. My kindle goes with me everywhere; probably a decent view, unlimited food and drink (I presume?). I’d probably gain weight, but wouldn’t mind the down time before having to get back to work . But I agree, if you have kids in your party, it would be hard!
We normally don’t wipe down our area in the plane either, but, especially with all this going on, we are planning on taking that extra step. I figure it couldn’t hurt.
Back in January I read a blog about how to prevent sickness when traveling to WDW. (It may have even been on Touring Plans, but I don’t recall now.) One of the suggestions was to use the Clorox hydrogen peroxide wipes to clean your trays on the plane. I thought this was a good idea, so I bought a good-size pack of them on Amazon. I’m glad I did back then, because they’re probably $1,000 now.
Actually, I just checked, and the same package that I bought in January is not available anymore. I guess they sold out.**
I didn’t take him to the doctor, so there’s an unconfirmed and unreported possible case.
. But I agree, if you have kids in your party, it would be hard!