It’s so hard to think of settling for a meager 23% discount with the other discounts you’re showing for September. I know it’s Poly vs SSR but still…
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More price drops:
4-night SSR Studio starting 1/8/24 now $180/night or 39% under median.
10-night SSR 1BR Villa starting 12/30 originally $613/night, now $380 or 35% under median.
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Yep! But, FWIW: The rental sites REALLY seem to do their best to keep a tight rein on the pricing for some resorts like Poly and BC.
For an example - I filtered down my data to just studio rentals with:
- A September start date each year
- Appeared on or before 12/13 each year
(so I don’t overweight last year’s rentals by including ones that showed up after this point in the year.)
TL;DR: You just won’t see higher discounts at some resorts as often as others.
The SSR rentals look like this - pretty even distribution over a wide price band from low to high.
The Poly rentals are MUCH more tightly clustered around that median on the low end - they LOVE posting $400 rentals to avoid going lower if at all possible, while they’ll freely discount SSR and OKW just as easily as post the higher prices.
Rental sites have their own pricing weirdness in place for BCV Studios - for this resort they tend to use one or two exact prices even more than the Poly $400 value. (Most common: $399 and $514.) You can also see a clustering around the median line in this chart, but it may look a little empty to your eye.
That is because while each dot is a rental in these charts, identical rentals (same price and start date) will actually all combine to look like a single dot. So, whether a rental site books 1 or 20 different BCV studios at a certain price starting on a certain day, it will look like one dot. and they do book multiples often.
BCV does have a lower volume of dedicated rentals out there, but also probably has a larger share of identical rentals around that median.
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So, I plugged in the September data into one of my analysis sheets and was pretty surprised by what I saw!
First: Last year at this time, the number of rentals that were active on any given day was on a huge bender of an upswing. But comparing today vs this day last year there are about 6% fewer rentals active.
When it comes to just September rentals, there were about 3 times as many studios already posted for Sept 2023 at this point last year as we have for next year right now. Wow, I would not have guessed that. at all.
Last year on this date, 68% of September studios were below median price, this year it is 73% so just a bit of difference.
Interestingly enough the distribution of how the rental prices fell has more of them this year in the 10% and 20% below median groups compared to last year, but there were more 30% below medians last year.
(Overall I wouldn’t use the 2022 numbers since I started the project in May that year and thus many rentals were likely off market before I could grab them.)
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I’ve been wondering if it’s election related. It could be some insecurity resulting in hanging on to ready cash just in case instead of sharing it with Disney.
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I’m also wondering if September being a generally slow month is causing that? Like this is all they could get with their points. But then why not try for a 7-month change?
This is also due to the demand of places like Poly and BC vs demand at SSR/OKW. Also, these dealers make more money the higher the rental goes for. So they don’t want to drop it too much, as they won’t make the same amount of money.
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It could boil down to this:
If one of the main front runners drops out, confidence will increase.
Nobody with money wants authoritarianism.
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@Nicky_S would know better than me, but for later use year months in 2022 you are using 2021 points. Could these still be extra banked pandemic points? Hence why there were just more rentals out there?
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Quite likely. I think it took time for people to use up their banked points, and some rented out some because they couldn’t use them all themselves.
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SMH they gotta try harder 
(I know it truly wasn’t possible for some, like yourself, who weren’t even allowed into the country for the longest time. I’m just being silly)
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I managed to rent mine out - thanks to a Liner who asked if I’d rent them to her (after David’s mucked up).
But what made me really mad was that DVC later decided to give an “extension” to others, despite having already told me “no”.
But I guess for people who have enough points for their vacations each year, not being able /willing to travel for 2 years would cause a problem if they couldn’t take extra time off work.
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OK, Interesting day in the dedicated DVC rental world!
Something like 36 new rentals appeared today and in them another pretty large batch of multi-day GF and Poly studios in June - August at 20% - 28% below median. (With at least one discounted Riviera studio in there too.)
Also, a LOT of rentals (53) changed in price today.
Before I get into a little detail - when using my search engine, to quickly see what rentals changed in price today you can select “Yes” in the Changed Today? field and click the SEARCH button.
A few dropped to decent prices in Jan, Apr and May to around 20% under median, plus a few SSR Studios all on 8/30 around 20% under as well.
The rest of the interesting price drops were 16 September rentals - the price drops were in the $9 to $44 per rental range, but even those modest differences brought some of those rentals down as much as 36% below median!
In particular, look for a 7-night AK Kidani SAVANNAH view on 9/22 now $221/per night - or 32% under median.
See also a few 7-night Poly studios on 9/1, 9/7, 9/15 now $357/night (31% under) and several 5-night SSR studios throughout the month now going for $189/night or 36% under median.
Some of the price-dropped rentals with closer check in dates:
5-night SSR 1BR Villa starting 1/8 for $400/night, now 32% below median.
Had been just over $600 since it first appeared in mid-Sept.
5-night BRV studio starting 4/28 is now $331/night, or 21% under median.
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New: 2-night DisneyLAND Hotel Preferred Duo Studio starting 1/30 for $315/night or 37% under median.
Note: that median includes ALL similar studios, so this being a preferred makes it an even better deal, relatively.
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This one dropped again slightly overnight - now 36% under median at $375/night.
This is among the lowest prices for this room even when looking at all rentals 2-nights or longer -
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Nothing too exciting new this morning, but another 32 rentals dropped in price - a nice batch in January now 20-32% under median. In particular Look for a 3-night SSR studio on 1/8 for $204.
No time to link things today - use the Changed Today setting on my search engine to find 'em!
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Between 12/30 and 1/7, there’s that one rental. Everything else between that time looks really booked solid!
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New: Just a 1-nighter, sadly, but a pretty discounted price:
Poly Studio for $336 on 12/20 or 35% under median.
4-night A Kidani studio starting 1/8 for $263 or 22% under.
2-night Copper Creek Studio 2/13 $301 or 23% under
Another price drop for this 4-night OKW studio starting 12/22 - now $231/night or 19% under median.
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Don’t know why these September rentals keep dropping, but here we are!
6-night SSR Studio starting 9/1 now $164 or 44% under median.
Lowest 6-night SSR I’ve recorded - but even looking at all rentals 2-nights or longer, still among the lowest.
4-night SSR studio starting 8/30 now $220/night or 25% under.
More upscale: 5-night GF 1BR Villa Lake View starting 6/22 now $810 or 20% under median.
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Are these already banked 2023 UY points, and the people who own them aren’t going anytime soon?
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Wish there was a way of knowing!
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