Some doozies in tonight’s new rentals:
AK Kidani 2 Bedroom Savannah View for 6-nights starting 8/25 for $552 per night.
That is 41% under the median price of $936 for this room - AND that includes ALL Kidani 2BRs. This being a Savannah view makes this significantly more better under median IMHO.
Also, an OKW 2BR starting 9/4 for 5-nights priced at $343/night or 53% YES FIFTY-THREE-PERCENT under the median of $728 for this room type.
We got home late Thursday night and yesterday morning noticed a tree in the woods behind us had fallen across my compost pile… So, before going out to lumberjack here’s a quick update:
A bunch of Beach Club Villa studios that have been out there awhile at the median price (about $500) have all dropped to around $400.
Still expensive in my personal budget opinion, but they are all about 15% - 19% below median, which is the most common “discount” rental you might see for BCV.
This 6-night BLT Studio starting Feb 3, 2024 appeared back in March at $416, which is a little bit under median.
Just noticed it dropped on Friday to $347, or 24% under median.
This price is way down at the lower end of things for BLT…
One of the gaggle of Beach Club studios that i mentioned above has dropped in price again: Gotta get down there quickly, though as it starts on 7/5!
4-nights for $349/night, or 29% below the median price of $492 for this room.
Book Reservation 177482 at Disney's Beach Club Villas for up to 60% off.
Yet another instance of renters (or the rental site) sitting on their thumbs until they are almost out of time:
Boardwalk studio starting 7/7 for 4-nights dropped after a loooooooooooooooooong time sitting at $378 (just under median) - now $308, or 23% under median.
I believe you can request at any time but if you say that you want the 7 month pricing they will hold off the booking until the 7 month window. You just have to be comfortable with that level of availability and probably best to give multiple choices.
Another OKW studio price drop - this 5-nighter starting 7/9/23 has been out there since December, started at $330/night and stayed there until dropping to $250 yesterday and again to $198 today.
That’s just about as low as it gets for a multi-day OKW studio, only a handful of better ones have been recorded to date.
…and another OKW Studio dropped yesterday I didn’t catch until now: 7-nights starting 7/15 for a sparkling $186/night. That’s 35% under median. Had been sitting at $261 since it first appeared back in March.
These are ridiculously low rates. Is it the site that has these more than Dave’s or are people just not traveling as much and so they are lowering the price to move it? Just wondering what your thoughts are.
I love checking this thread with a trip at the end of this month. We are booked at CSR for the first time so nothing has gotten me to pull the trigger yet but a few have come close.
All I can guess from is the data - over the last few months the number of dedicated rentals out there each day has dropped a fair amount and Disney released quite a few discounts and reinstated bounce back, so I’m thinking bookings are down.
But, Remember I am also hand-picking the really good ones to post here and in chat - there are still plenty that are out there at higher rates. In fact, after a year of doing this the most surprising thing I found was that only 25% of all dedicated rentals posted ever change in price even if they don’t get picked up for long periods of time.
Of course, fun facts:
I suspect so many get picked up quickly because non-DVC owners are still getting better rates than a direct cash booking even if the dedicated rental isn’t “good” in relation to the best prices.
But, I can’t be sure we can tie the really good discounts to anything other than some people being more aware of the pricing/market than others and/or some people pricing things high emotionally and sticking to their guns even when they don’t sell. (Problem: I can’t tell if they sell or are just pulled from the market. I only know they’re gone from the rental site.)
After a year of watching these, if I were an owner I’d try to pick something a little above median on a normal date, or even higher for Spring or big Holidays. If it didn’t sell within 3 weeks I’d drop it to 10% below median. Without being able to test my theory, I bet that tactic would both have a very high success rate and get you that do-re-mi to cover dues. (Maybe even extra? I haven’t crunched any numbers at all, shooting from the hip here, so DVC folks would know better.)
When I generate an OKW Studio chart for all rentals 1-day or longer I get 1,480 total rentals over time you can see below a huge number of them never go below the median. Sure, there are holiday and vacation dates where things are going to be priced higher and will get picked up. But I’m still very surprised so many never change.
Thanks for all that. I believe I’ll have to post some of my own DVC points, at some point, and all this is helpful.
When do you expect to post points? Looking to use some next year so just curious if it would line up at all.
I am not sure you’d ever really be able to calculate that. Dues would differ based on the HOME resort and not the resort booked at. I, personally, think that is one of the reasons dedicated rentals seem to be so popular. An owner can try (to the best of their ability) to use low-dues or low-cost points to book at the highest cost resort they possibly can and try to command a higher dollar for their points.
I mean the highest dues out there right now are still ~$13 for Hilton Head at the top of the list and $7-9 at WDW. So absolutely every single one of these rentals is at a minimum making their dues back.
It won’t be for a few years, unless DS gets deployed again and spoils the family plans (again) next fall 
Then I’ll have to act. We are looking at GC in Sept 2024. I have a feeling those DVC rooms might go fast.
I should probably point out I think this chart may still be skewed to the left a little.
I started this project about 14 months ago, and many of that first batch of rentals I grabbed were likely out there awhile before I saw them come and go. So, I’m guessing as time goes on and their effect becomes smaller as the data set gets larger, that dramatic ski slope on the left might smooth out a little.
Don’t think it changes the overall takeaway of the chart though - the greater majority of rentals are gone after a few weeks in the wild.
I’ve added a field to my DVC search form:
You can now select a “Percent vs Median” value to restrict results to rentals at or below that value.
I hadn’t included it originally because I didn’t think we had enough data for the comparison to median to be valid, but after more than a year I think it might be helpful.
So, if you are extremely flexible (good for you!) you can just say, select “-30%” in that field, select Active and hit search to see all live rentals out there that are priced at least 30% below the median for that resort/room combo.
You can click the example image below to go right to the search page.
I am happy to see this drop off. I am more or less fine with the regular rental maket - request a date - someone picks it up for you - but the speculative one is driving me crazy. It really is grabbing up the best dates and locations and holding them just in case. The first is like the Uber of the rental markets, the 2nd is like saying the only way you can get a ride from the airport is to booking with these 3 shuttle companies.
I am curious what the dedicated rentals look like for the rest of the year?
It sure does seem like there are a lot of people playing the buy and hold game.
I do have a chart that depicts how many rentals there are that start on each day of the year, which may give us a feel for how the future looks.
Of course I don’t have all of the rentals that might be released after today, so anything to the right of the red line is just the current data and all will likely rise over time.
But, just eyeballing things it looks like more of the same - I’d eventually expect similar spikes as last year. Right now the Thanksgiving spike from last year hasn’t shown up - but off the top of my head I do think those really started rolling in at the end of summer.
