Crowd jump


#1

Just saw a jump in the crowds for August 18-22. The crowds went up to 9 at MK. I am so worried and wondering if it is even worth going at that level. So sad frowning


#2

It is always worth it, no matter what the crowd level. smile

Seriously though, if you hit the parks at RD with a TP that has been optimized for the day in question you will be able to effectively deal with the crowds and get a lot done - far more than than the average non-Liner would be able to do.


#3

Yeah i got that notification too because we are going around then. 👎😁


#4

I did too. They went from 7 to 9 and 10 on some days. I am seriously rethinking this.


#5

If you arrive at rope drop and follow a plan, you'll be fine. As @brklinck said, you can deal with the crowds much more effectively that way.


#6

Thank you everyone we are going to be traveling with a 1 year old and 4 year old so that is my largest concern.


#7

My instinct is that you'll be alright, even with little kids. Getting them up for RD might be a struggle, but if you take a mid-day break at the hotel, I would think that might mitigate the issue to some degree. No kids, though, so it's entirely possible I have no idea what I'm talking about wink


#8

Same here as far as jump in levels. My 6s and 7s turned into 4 9s and 2 8s. What information could they have suddenly obtained that would warrant such a prediction/change? Shouldn't last August's numbers be the biggest determinant in forecasting this August's numbers? I too am worried. First trip to WDW. We usually go to DLR and 9s are no fun.


#9

I got my email today too, for Aug 16-27. Crowds jumped from 5-7 to 7-9 on average. Some days are 3 levels higher from last year's crowds on the same dates, which was our last trip. My crowd tracker still puts Aug 16 though as the day summer break ends, but I'm wondering if the later school start for many schools is the factor? I'm Canadian, and Labour Day this year is on Sept 7, with kids returning to school on the 8th.


#10

We're going at a similar time next year. Is there a particular reason given why there's been a massive increase in crowd levels?


#11

Same jump for June. We are now scheduled to visit Epcot on a 10/10 day. Not happy...


#12

Rope drop, then get out before 2:00. Long afternoon break. Come back in the evening, or not. It will be fine!


#13

Major jump for January 2016 as well. It was supposed to be one of the slowest weeks of the year, now it's showing above average, including 8s and 9s at the Studios.


#14

My tracked December numbers also went up as well, but I believe that this is due to the recent release of the initial December Operating Hours schedule. Not sure why other months would have changed - perhaps @len or @fred could provide some detail.


#15

Our 7s in early June just went up to 9s all week : ( Do the parks ever reach full-capacity in early summer? I'm dreading this a bit now!


#16

It is disconcerting I know but try not to panic. The ugly truth is that "busy" is the new normal. We can't ignore that common areas in the parks are getting busier, wait times are trending up (slightly) in non-peak seasons and the economy shows no signs of slowing.

There is also the recalibration affect as well - when we refresh the numbers it redefines what the levels mean in terms of average wait time.


#17

The difference between a 7 and 9 is about 5 to 10 minutes for the average wait time, not as much as you think. There is a big difference between a Christmas '10' and a summer '10'.


#18

This update is not due to a sudden change but represents a one-time adjustment to all the subtle changes that we measure over time. Unfortunately we have to occasionally 'reset' the numbers otherwise we'd fall behind the trends.


#19

I got the email too, we're going Aug 20-29. Levels are still in the 3-5 range for the last part of our trip, but from 8/20-8/24 they jumped up to 7s and 8s. We chose the end of August for the low crowds but I guess the late Labor Day is bumping them up! At least I'm finding out now when I still have time to tweak my touring plans before I make my FP+ reservations. I don't think it's possible to push our dates out by a week at this point, we're on a free dining bounce back so I doubt there's availability. Plus I really like the ADRs I got!


#20

@fred thank you for explaining. I chose the week I chose for a variety of factors but mostly due to crowds. Did all of the crowds go up? So even though my dates are more crowded they all are, so things really didn't change as much as I feel?