Crowd jump


#21

@fred - thanks for all the explanations!


#22

If there is a big difference between summer 10 and Christmas 10, shouldn't they have different numbers? This doesn't make sense to me.


#23

Recalibrate, redifine and reset didn't really explain anything to me.


#24

Yeah, it makes it hard to do apples-to-apples comparisons if the scales differe based on the time of year...


#25

Why not just make it go to 11?


#26

It does make sense. It's important to understand that each crowd level represents a * range* of wait times. Check out, for example, the 43-minute peak wait time range for Peter Pans Flight on a 10 day.

http://touringplans.com/magic-kingdom/crowd-levels


#27

The scales don't differ based on the time of year. A 10 is a 10. But a 10 doesn't tell you exactly how long you'll wait. It indicates a likely range of (long) wait times per attraction. So, on December 26 you'll probably see lines in the highest end of the range and in July you may see wait times somewhere lower in the range. But both are still within the range expected at a 10 level day.


#28

our times went up in October as well. disappointing but we will still go. But with regard to the 9, we have gone in the past over spring break when it was that busy. And yes, it is VERY crowded mid-day. But if you get there at RD and follow your plan, it can still be worth it. The first time I did that was a few years ago, when I think my kids were about 2-3 & 5, so it can be worth it even with little kids.


#29

Arrive at rope drop. Follow a plan. Set your FPP as early as possible, super demand rides only. With heavy crowds, your opportunities for your fourth, fifth FPPs will diminish, especially for the big rides (Splash and Space Mountain), but you have a good shot at things like Pooh, Pirates, etc, so don't "waste" your first 3 on those. My dream scenario goes something like this: rope drop straight to Space Mountain, 9-10 SDMT FPP, 10-11 Peter Pan, 11-12 Splash. Set those, and Optimize a TP around it.


#30

Perhaps the better approach is to ask one to consider the alternative. If the crowd levels stayed static for the sake of consistency but less accurate would that be preferable? Our philosophy is that accuracy is more important than consistency but our job is to balance the two. We feel that making a year-wide adjustment twice a year is fair.


#31

We've considered that actually, and the statistics support it. Something like a separate label like "Extreme" or "Capacity Crowd" and then applying the 1 to 10 levels to everything else.


#32

Though, if you had an 11, people would wonder why you didn't just make 10 louder


#33

Why not more frequent updates? Even monthly or weekly? Wouldn't that result in the accuracy you (we) are looking for and less dramatic jumps so users wouldn't freak out as much when their numbers jump?


#34

Aren't you inevitably going to have to extend the range for it to maintain meaning.?If attendance figures are going to increase year on year, therefore increasing queue lengths there are going to be more and more days that are 10. As a user I will not be able to differentiate between a "good" 10 and a "bad" 10. And isn't that the part of the reason for the crowd calendar - to help me decide when to go, in addition to preparing me for what my trip is going to be like?


#35

Ok, some of us have been a little frustrated over this, especially those of us who are travelling within the next 30 days. But admittedly, you have a difficult job of maintaining accuracy, being realistic, and not angering the people you are trying to provide a service to. That being said, how much confidence do you have in your updated crowd predictions? I would like to make some changes to my plans based on the new information. For example, I have FP's for Epcot on 6/16/15. I have just seen the predicted crowd level go from a 7 to a 10. I do not want to be at Epcot when the crowd level is a 10. Would you say that your crowd predictions through the end of June are now conservative? I need to make my changes ASAP. Please respond.


#36

Also, have your updated crowd predictions been filtered through to the software for the personalized touring plans? If I re-evaluate all of my plans today, will the new crowd levels be reflected in the plans? Thanks.


#37

I look at it like weather forecasts. Most local weathermen make 10-day forecasts - they are pretty much useless, but people want them so they make them anyway. However, what would you want your weatherman to do as it gets closer to the day in question - say "I predicted sunshine a week ago, so I'm going to stick with it" or "Thunderstorms tomorrow, better not go to the beach"? I'll go with accuracy every time. smile


#38

Though, if you had an 11, people would wonder why you didn't just make 10 louder

Because... it goes to 11.


#39

I don't think that we are in danger of that yet. Looking at the current CC for MK, there is still a good distribution of days:
CL - Count
1 - 14
2 - 24
3 - 23
4 - 37
5 - 45
6 - 58
7 - 52
8 - 52
9 - 43
10 - 18

The biggest problem with rescaling is maintaining a constant frame of reference. If you rescale, then inevitably users will say "I went last year on a 5 and it was fine, and I went this year on a 5 and it was horrible - it should have been a 7!"

That's easy - Christmas week = bad 10, and other time = good 10. smile

DISCLAIMER: I am not an employee or otherwise affiliated with TouringPlans.com (although I do have a "staff" t-shirt). All conjectures about the validity of the TP projections are based on hours of pointless experimentation making TPs that I will never use, and analyzing CC data because I am a total geek.


#40

Fred - the extreme level would probably be helpful to the layman. I understand the math but most don't. Only adjusting twice a year is going to cause these big swings, but know it's hard to balance being precise in the numbers, with understandability for your consumers. Internally I could see the rational for only 2 times - that's only 2 times a year you have to field dealing with mad people about this issue. :).