Crowd Estimation Early April 2025

For complicated reasons (including involving increased chances of hurricanes this year) thinking of changing 7 day AoA free DDP late Sept 2024 reservation to Sun Apr 6 to Sat Apr 12 again at AoA. (hopefully promotions then too) THE ? IS: Given Easter 2025 is Sunday is April 20 do the school boards that impact WDW crowds usually during last two weeks in March and maybe first week of April change when Easter is so late: like in 2025. Can deal with crowd levels up to 7 in the week of April 6 to April 12 2025 but crowd levels of 8 and up would want to avoid. Thx guys.

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Easter crowds follow Easter, whenever it may fall.

I think you’d be fine 4/6-12 if Easter isn’t until the 20th.

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Yes but the question is do the school boards adjust?

School boards?

I don’t follow, sorry…

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If Easter is late do the important school boards delay their school breaks to maybe last week in March and first two weeks in April vs last two weeks in March and first week in April?

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Or are the school breaks and Easter entirely independent of each other.

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TP has a great blog article about how they include school schedules when making the crowd calendar.

Here’s a more recent discussion about when Easter is late.

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Every district is different and would really be dependent on when the school year ends. In my state (SC), the school year starts in August and ends in May and testing happens in April. I doubt that most school districts would push spring break so far toward the end of April. However, that’s just one state.

ETA: our school district doesn’t work Easter into the equation, but I know of some that try to.

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Oh gotcha! I see muzzy has hooked you up nicely

Sorry I wasn’t understanding!

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I’ve had kids in Catholic schools for 17 years (Egads! And 11 more to go!) and spring break for us is always Good Friday through the week after Easter, no matter how late that is. I’m sure our little diocese in central Illinois has little effect, but if all or many Catholic schools across the country are the same it may have an impact.

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We live in a very large school district in the DC area (Montgomery County, Maryland), and our spring break always tracks with Easter. Maryland law mandates no public school on Good Friday and Easter Monday, so spring break always aligns. Don’t ask me why–I’m just stating the facts. :laughing:

I see our dates next year are April 14-21.

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i spoke to the author of myfirstvisit.net a ways back and he informed me that most states “float” their spring breaks to Easter week and very few states (like me here in Mass) have a “fixed week” spring like we do every year, the third week of April…That week is likely to be VERY busy, 8+

Our area only does Thursday - Monday- and sometimes Thursday is a half day.- depends on if they need to make up days for hurricane off time. But we get a week for Mardi Gras too. Public schools follow the Easter holiday for spring break they just can’t call it that. This year public school did Thursday - Tuesday off.

So bear with me but let me modify my question a bit. So I realize that school boards that tie their spring break to Easter will do so each year. But my question is re the school boards that do not tie their break directly to Easter. My understanding is that most of those school boards will normally break last two weeks of March and maybe 1st week April. But if Easter is really, really late as in April 2025 when it is Sunday, April 20 do those school boards shift their breaks to maybe last week in March and first two weeks in April. ???

Not that I’ve found in Iowa. The public K-12 schools closely match the big universities/colleges, and hold their spring break at the same week in mid-March every year. It’s the second week of March this year.

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Love this analysis. 2017 Easter I think on Sunday 16th. Looks like between school boards tied to Easter and school boards that are more late March that when Easter is relatively delayed to 20th (as opposed to 16th in 2017) that April 6 to 13 is a SWEET SPOT. yes or no?

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Interesting thought, but maybe it doesn’t pan out? Look at the historical crowd levels for those dates in March and April 2017. To me, the slightly lower days were the last week of March. All of April before Easter were higher than that last week of March.

Yes but in 2017 Easter 4 days later which shifts the weeks maybe. So again the week two weeks before the first week before Easter but after the late March weeks is a SWEET SPOT??? This is crazy how obsessed we are. Haha.

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Here’s the thing: I don’t think you’ll notice a tremendous difference in your experience if it turns out to be a 7 or if it turns out to be an 8 or 9, or maybe even 10. 7 is pretty busy. If you were taking about a 4 vs those higher numbers, maybe. But I think you might be overly focused on numbers that don’t work out to being that different of an experience overall.

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I understand what you are saying and agree. But I will not go if on average it is a 7 or above so my focus is re whether or not, given that some school boards still go out in March regardless of when Easter is and if the two weeks before and after Easter on April 20 are high, that week of April 6 to 13 might be an average of 5 or 6 crowds?

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