Crowd Calendar Change 2022

Hi all,

I just received a crowd calendar update for my family’s upcoming trip to WDW next March (March 1-6) for the 50th. Overall crowd levels of 7-8, up from 3-5. Most sites list late February to early March as one of the best times to visit the parks. Anyone know what’s driving the increase? What’s is touring plans picking up on that others are not?

Thanks for all your help!


Hmmm, that is strange. Yes it is a good time to visit, I was there this year that same time. It could be something automated, I wouldn’t think too much into it at this point.

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I was just coming to ask. We have a trip planned for the same time and our calendar crowd levels doubled or more than doubled now.

Welcome to the forum! I would say two things: first- a crowd level prediction 10-11 months away most likely will change multiple times. It should change and if other predictors don’t change theirs I wouldn’t trust them. Second, I personally would expect crowds every day, all year long for the 50th. Many people are hoping for the return of shows, fireworks, and mask-free park visits.

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I am going the week before and AK went from 1 to 10! :joy:. Trying not to stress.

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My late Jan-early Feb trip changed and looks odd too, crowd level 8 one day, 1 the next then 7 the following day? Something looks off to me.

Thanks all! I have an email out to the TP experts as well. Will share any insight they provide.

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Here’s what the folks at TP said:

"The prior crowd levels were assuming that some of the current “Health and Safety” measures would still be in effect in 2022. The new predictions are based on what we saw prior to the pandemic.

There is still a lot that is unknown what 2022 will bring. As we learn more about conditions, we will make adjustments as they are warranted."


Thanks for checking with TP

But most years the first week of March averages around a 5 crowd level on week days. Like last year:

But in 2019, crowds were much higher than normal. Mardi Gras was that week. Example:

Maybe TP is going off of 2019 because it’s the most comparable year to 2021 with Mardi Gras the same week. Time will tell!

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I bet they are looking at resort reservations too. I’m in the process of booking a trip and was told resort demand starting in October is very high. Not sure how long it lasts, but I would bet well into 2022 with everyone rescheduling previous trips and the demand from 50th celebrations.

So you really expect crowds to be a lot higher than normal for the whole 18 month celebration? Which runs through March 2023 I believe.

Between that and all the rescheduled trips you may be right. Lots of trips scheduled for 2020 and 2021 are moved to later this year and probably through the entire 2022.

I just got another crowd change notification. I bet there will many more before my trip.:woman_shrugging:

I do expect higher than usual crowds for all vacation destinations for the next few years.


I’m also wondering the same thing and would appreciate all the advice. The crowds for my dates in March (13-19) were just changed from an average of 6 to 10! I have concerns about going when crowds would be so big. Should I cancel or change my dates? Thanks for your advice!

Welcome to the forum! Are you planning a spring break trip?

Yes! With my kiddos :slight_smile:

There are certain times of the year I would expect to always be busy: Christmas, Easter, President’s week, race weekends, Mardi Gras (especially if it overlaps a spring break or President’s week), Spring Break.

We have gone at this time before and it hasn’t been at level 10. I always assumed it had to do with how far the week was from Easter. Easter is mid-April next year (a month after our dates), so assume it isn’t that. So- do you think this change is the TP folks trying to account for the combo of post-COVID revenge travel and 50th anniversary hoopla? How accurate do we think the level 10 estimate is? Thanks again!!

I personally think trying to predict a CL today for 6,8,11 months from now-is like looking into a crystal ball.

I learned some hard lessons and the last year. The #1 lesson I learned was never to assume I know what the future will bring. Of course I am a tired old lady. Please, someone be more positive here!

March 1 2022 is Mardi Gras week. That typically is very busy so I hear. We went during Mardi Gras 2020 (just prior to COVID) and it was extremely busy. When I planned our trip the predicted crowd levels were low however they did change to be higher prior to leaving. Overall, like I said we found it very busy. Magic Kingdom was honestly hard to get around. After our trip I looked at the “actual” crowds and they rated it as 10 every day. I didn’t realize how much Mardi Gras impacted their crowd levels. Mind you I had our trip very well planned and everything went very smoothly but it was definitely a lot busier then I anticipated.

We are planning to go March 19 2022 and the crowd levels are also rated high. We are coming from Canada though and want to have warm weather for our week on the beach after Disney. When we went in February 2020 we found it cool on the beach.

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