Just saw this news (probably posted elsewhere):
Edit: There is another thread on this article.
As a devoted reader of this thread, I am shocked at how little many people I know know about whatās going on. Mostly from Facebook. Someone I know just a little, from long ago, posted a rant about contact tracing. It was obvious that this person and the people who responded were unaware of what contact tracing is until yesterday. How did they miss that?
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It just happens by default. Less virulent strains spread more quickly because people arenāt very sick and donāt stay home. More virulent strains put people in bed where they arenāt a risk to others, so it just spreads slower, and even more slowly if thereās contact tracing. Then, if the worse strain does somehow spread, people have immunity because theyāve already encountered the less nasty strain- so that slows it down some more.
False case and deaths counts aside, China seems to have had a much worse time of it than we have had, and it wouldnāt surprise me if we have had weaker strains here. A traveler does have to be well enough to travel, arrive in the US, and then be out and about spreading the virus. If theyāre really sick, they might not even get on the plane in the first place.
Itās kind of counterintuitive, but in general, the more virulent and deadly a virus is, the less successful it is (gratefully). And itās probably one reason why SARS and MERS didnāt spread as quickly, either. People got very sick, & there were no asymptomatic cases, so contact tracing was much easier and they could stamp out the epidemic.
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NCL sharing concerning news.
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Thank you for this. It was what I was thinking but I wasnāt sure it was correct. I followed SARS fairly closely as we were waiting to adopt our second child from China at the time. But this is something that stuck in my brain from that time.
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Iāve had some other things going on for the last week so havenāt been able to follow the briefings hardly at all. Plan to get back on top of it in the next couple of days.
But, here is an interesting clip from an interview National Geographic did with Dr Fauci that I think is worth a watch. He talks about origin of the virus and some thoughts on the fall.
The transcript of the full interview is here. It does ask for an email address to gain access. (I was already on their email list so not a big deal to me.)
Here are a couple of the more interesting bits on vaccine developmentā¦
āStill, he remains optimistic that a vaccine will be ready within an historically short time frame, citing one promising candidate that he thinks may move into advanced clinical trials by the early summer. Fauci has said that he thinks a final vaccine could be available for general use as early as January, which would break records for the speed at which previous vaccines were developedā¦ā
Fauci: āā¦We have a better chance of quickly getting, relatively speaking, a vaccine for the novel coronavirus than we did for HIV, because for some reason thatās still unknown the body does not make an adequate immune response to HIV.
We donāt necessarily have that challenge with this coronavirus because itās obvious that many people make a very adequate immune response. They clear the virus, and they do well. As we know from the natural history of this disease, the majority of people actually either get well without any symptomsātheyāre called asymptomaticāor they have minimal symptoms, where they get a fever, some aches, and then they recover.ā
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Okay, let me preface this by saying I really want to believe that my governor isnāt an idiot. And that Iām a margarita and 2 glasses of wine into Cinco de Mayo while I watch the 5/5 Texas briefing.
Someone explain what Iām missing here???
Regarding gyms: āCustomers should wear gloves that cover their whole hand and fingers. So why this? Obviously, one of the reasons is when people touch their hands on a piece of equipment and then they touch their face they could transmit the Covid 19 germ and hence contract Covid 19.ā
Canāt they do the same thing while wearing gloves? (Ironically, my gym is kickboxing so weāre wearing boxing gloves most of the time anyway and I assume that would be compliant, but this is not making any sense to me?)
Time: ~30:20
The word āobviouslyā is totally triggering meā¦
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I had to open a new bottle of wine. They need to stop saying āMath tells a storyā or I might lose it. I worked as a senior financial analyst at a Global Fortune 10 company for over 10 years. I know what massaging the numbers looks like. If they canāt connect the dots they are presenting in hospitalization numbers (which are harder to massage than test results in given conditions), they are either idiots or intentionally hoodwinking Texans or deluding themselves. Iām trying to sort which of those alternatives is worse. I canāt evenā¦
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More from the TX briefing āLong term care facilitiesā¦meat packing plantsā¦our prisons and jailsā¦we know where itās going to beā¦ā
To me, every person has sacred worth. It seems to others, they are acceptable casualties.
Numbers they are throwing out. Amarillo has 5 meat packing plants with 12,000 employees.
12,000 employees x 50% (minimum for herd immunity) x 0.1% fatality rate (that percentage of NYC residents have died whether infected or not so itās a legit ballpark guess). ~6 people will die so Texans can have their choice of meat/cut instead of making significant changes in operations. We wonāt starve. This is 6 people dying so we can have convenient menu planning. If this was a refinery incident, there would be extensive root cause analysis done to prevent future occurrences. Yet we see it coming and accept it.
My standard of life > lives of others
Extensive re-opening will lead to more areas with community spread. Which means more of these ācontained communitiesā will have outbreaks. Unless they isolate every staff member or test them before every shift, which is not being proposed, it is going to happen. They havenāt been able to protect them over the last 6 weeks of trying.
āWhat matters is not how many people are hospitalized, what matters is what our hospitalization capacity isā so I guess if you die in an ICU bed, that is an acceptable loss. Oh, but waitā¦he then almost immediately says āone death is one too manyā How can both be true? (1:04). He also lists places in the US (NY, NOLA, Chicago, etc) and says āthey did not have the hospital capacity to deal with the challengesā. Iām pretty sure none of them actually exceeded their surge capacity. That is not what caused their deaths.
Surely there are other ways to make sure hair dressers and movie theater employees have the income to get by then accepting people need to die? Are we not smarter than this?
The kids and I are desperately in need of a haircut and having a huge moral struggle. Weāve used the same dear hairdresser for 20+ years, and apparently I can legally book with her for Friday. Maybe I have my DH chop my bangs and still send her a check.
Oh, and another lovely gem he threw in right at the end. Apparently per his discussions with Dr Birx, schools should plan to open up earlier than normal in the fall leaving a longer winter break āwith the concern slash anticipation beingā¦there may need to beā¦a longer period of timeā¦[during flu/Covid season] not to have the students gatherā¦ā
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Have you been up all night? 
How are you going to stay awake to see the Blue Angels fly over today? 
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Thank you for the video!
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54 people have died in a long term health facility in my city, and another 100 Have tested positive so far. I started to hear rumors a couple of weeks ago but it has now made the news.
This needs attention everywhere. Itās devastating.
How is it being transmitted?
Are they understaffed?
Not enough PPE? Not enough education?
In the UK itās not enough PPE.
There are investigations all over the state.I believe the report was that more than half of our deaths are from long term facilities. That would be over 2000 deaths.
This has bothered me from the start. I see almost zero benefit to wearing gloves, except in very specific situations. Last I checked, people werenāt contracting the virus via their handsā¦and wearing gloves doesnāt prevent you from touching things, including your face, etc. And when you take off the gloves, you still have to sanitize because you can contaminate yourself just by the act of taking off the gloves!
So to make a recommendation that people should be wearing gloves as part of āre-openingā is just foolish. I certainly hope there are far better mandates/guidelines in place.
I donāt take issue with wanting to re-open. I donāt even take issue with the actual re-opening. But in order for it to work, the rules for ensuring minimizing spread need to be very clear and effective. So far, I think the rules Iāve seen coming out of the Orange County task force make sense. It should be a model for the rest of the country.
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I just saw an article yesterday that PA is now starting to focus on nursing homes to distribute PPE. Especially since many hospitals have started doing elective procedures. 2/3 of the deaths in the state are from nursing homes and long term care facilities. I believe that is over 2000 deaths now.
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In the hospitals we are wearing the same masks FIVE days in a row unless taking care of a COVID+ patient. Then we are allowed to have a dedicated one for their room if n95 or we can toss the ear-loop ones frequently. I probably used 15-20 on Saturday for my one C19 patient.
Maybe reusing PPE all day in a hospital setting isnāt the same as in a long term care facility. Maybe on LTC more are weaker immunity wise ??
Some of the issue is reports that they are moving residents around between facilities. So say they find out several of the residents have tested positive for Covid-19. They move those who supposedly donāt have it and, oops, they actually do, so then it infects the other nursing home. Staff is also bringing it in, as I believe they were only checking temperature and self-report of symptoms for screening. Donāt know if that is still the case.
No, itās not. Meat processing plants are just one link in a much larger chain that millions of people depend on to live, suppliers and consumers alike. Agriculture is one of those industries that doesnāt start and stop on a dime. Keep it down long enough and significant parts of it might not come back. And if they do, the restart time could be measured in years. At what cost to those who depend on it to live?
And how many people would you sacrifice to collateral causes of death or even worse to save those six? Not offered as a personal slight or attack, just a thought exercise. Suicide, domestic violence, untreated illness and injury. Those are on the other side of your coin. And Iāll throw in famine, though Iāll surely be mocked by some. Itās been nearly a century since we in the U.S. have known genuine hunger on a scale seen in other parts of the world. Even world hunger today isnāt anything like it was when I was born. In tremendous part because of U.S. agriculture, an industry that despite its impressive safety record claims lives every year.
You canāt keep everybody alive. Itās an effort thatās doomed to fail by natural design. And if thatās the standard you expect the government to live up to, then thereās nothing theyāre ever going to be able to do to satisfy you.
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