2025 Hurricane Season

I superimposed the latest track over the one this morning and it’s essentially the same. Which is a good sign and means the models are maintaining their original prediction. the longer that track remains offshore, the higher the likelihood the turn will happen. :crossed_fingers:

4 Likes

GFS still showing the much-desired turn. Though, it’s starting to look like Bermuda is in the danger zone. :face_with_peeking_eye:

image

3 Likes

Hope that turn happens as expected!

Here’s the rest of the update:


I think it’s pretty safe to say Florida is in the clear. Bahamas may see impacts but not directly (i.e., rough surf, currents, etc.).

4 Likes

She’s now a Cat 5. But it looks like she’s going to miss most of the landmasses around

There’s one spaghetti model that has her getting loose on the left and smacking into The Carolinas, and another that has her going “I want to see the Chicxulub crater!” But most of the other models are in agreement that she’s going to be offshore enough to not be a major issue. Maybe some high surf and some rough currents.

4 Likes

Poor Bermuda :frowning: I have a friend who lives there.

3 Likes

I vaguely recall there’s a Liner who lives in Bermuda … but I could be misremembering. It could be someone who isn’t around much. :thinking:

2 Likes

Yes, I believe it is @4ljs. Hope she remains unscathed!

5 Likes

Thanks and it is me. I’m in Canada with our girls and it’s just DH and the cats in Bermuda. It’s just looking like a tropical storm for landed windspeeds but I did tell him to eat everything he can in the freezer and reminded him to fill the tub that doesn’t leak.

12 Likes

Dear LORD, please no.

6 Likes

Fingers crossed, that’s just one model. All the other models, save one, are predicting a mostly miss.

5 Likes

Agreed. And definitely one that doesn’t visit the upstate of SC or the mountains of NC. We aren’t used to hurricanes up here.

5 Likes

That gives me hope. I guess I’m suffering from a form of PTSD. I’ve lived in the upstate of SC since 1978, and last year was the first time we have been hit head-on with one. I can’t remember if it was hurricane strength by the time it hit us. The only other time a hurricane even came close to us was Hugo, and it made a turn near Columbia and hit Charlotte, NC instead.

4 Likes

Ah! I’ll try to commit to memory that you’re the one in Bermuda. :sweat_smile:

5 Likes

for barely 4 years and it was very traumatic even as unscathed as I personally was.
We have friends who are still displaced! (Though their new home should be ready to live in this month! PTL)

5 Likes

00z update:

Looks like all the models are giving Erin a bit of a right turn. She’s also down to a Cat 4. Though daytime might restrengthen her.

The one model that had her going just straight west before wobbled her a little north (the right turn), and wanting to be just south of the Mexico-Texas border. The other sole outlier that was looking The Carolinas is now wobbling a bit more for The Chesapeake Bay and The Eastern Shore of Maryland. But those are only 2 of at least 20 models, and the other 18 are saying she’s staying off shore.

There are watches and warnings for The Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

2 Likes

No, she’s not allowed near the Eastern Shore of Maryland or Delaware (where I live). When we first started tracking this storm, I was worried about something hitting while I’m at WDW 8/23-31. It would be ironic if instead it hit where I live and I couldn’t get to Florida. Nope, I’m believing that won’t happen!

5 Likes

Really far out at the moment, but there’s a slight chance of another storm gathering strength and making its way into the gulf sometime around Aug 26-28.

image

4 Likes

I’m a former Claymonster! :grin:

I highly highly doubt either of the two models making landfall will be true. There’s just so much evidence that this is going to miss, that it will take a massive “whoops” for this storm to wobble back to the left and really be an issue.

4 Likes

Denis just posted a live update literally from Epcot :joy: I’m not sure why I find that hilarious. Still no real concern for anyone here. He doesn’t even seem to think Bermuda will be impacted.

10 Likes

Right now Erin looks to be threading the needle between the East Coast and Bermuda.

Chance of formation for the other two disturbances is low for the next 7 days (<30%).

5 Likes