Geez what’s that doing up by us??
Keeping Erin on a southern track and giving lizzieanne771 heartburn
My BFF who lives in Tampa told me the guy she and her husband follow on FB and Insta, so I’m now following him as well.
At this point almost all the spaghetti models show it turning north before it gets to the US. His latest update says while things can change, there is NO need to be cancelling anything or for parents of kids at Florida universities to worry yet. Right now it looks like the US might get higher surf for a few days, but at this point nothing more.
It’s Denis Phillips for anyone curious. Handle on Insta denisphillipsabcweather
edited to correct that Denis only has 1 n.
It’s pretty early in the season. Often these T.S.s, Cat 1s and Cat 2s don’t effect WDW much more than really bad thunderstorms. Still be cautious.
Apparently dust from the Sahara is slowing development. Come on dust!!!
For us this is very true. The dust will settle over the Gulf. It will mess with allergies but we don’t get big storms. It’s set to move on soon and that’s when things ramp up. We have a cruise for Labor Day and I have faith it will be just fine.
Yay, Dust!!!
The GFS is currently showing the turn you describe, though the forecast models that far out are not super reliable. Here’s hoping the model is correct!
Below is the GFS for Aug 18-21.
Yep. Denis Phillips in Tampa is still invoking “Rule #7” which is “Don’t panic if I’m not panicking.” He said that historically only 5% of the storms that start where she has hit the US and all models are still indicating the northward turn.
What’s your countdown now? Sending good thoughts that she goes away quickly!
8 days to Disney, 13 days to cruise.
The best situation you can have is that you have so many days ahead of the cruise that you are planning to be close in WDW. All of those WDW days can be buffer days if there’s any impact to travel plans get there and you need to pivot.
And if that goes just fine, but you’re impacted the days the ship can dock, you’ll be there to be able to pivot with it. And the trip insurance means that if you don’t get to go this time around, you’ll get the funds back to re-plan a trip in its place.
At least these were all the things I learned when we had Idalia in 2023 potentially impacting a Labor Day weekend WDW trip & cruise that embarked Labor Day.
Yep!
I definitely plan to keep things exactly as they are - if Disney cancels the cruise, there’s usually a really sweet deal they do. 
Better stay where it is until at least Sunday because that’s when my flight down is!
GFS still showing the boomerang. Even stays west and north of Bermuda, which would be great.
Yep. Denis is saying maybe the Outer Banks need to worry, but that’s only a few of the European models.
But he says Florida is absolutely clear right now.