Why is DHS a 3 on the Crowd Calendar every day 12/3/21 - 12/21/21?

Anyone know why DHS is consistently a 3 on the CC each day for these dates? I’m traveling 12/11-12/18 and all the other parks have varying numbers as you would expect. Also, I was expecting DHS to have higher numbers for each day (compared to the other parks for those same dates) since it tends to reach capacity before the others and seems to not have as many attractions to spread people out (I could be wrong about that second point.)

Editing to add: I just went through the process of choosing parks and creating loose touring plans (basically choosing to ride all the popular options once) for those days, and the differences between wait times at DHS vs the other parks is significant.
DHS is a CC 3, waits are between 42-76 minutes
MK is a CC 2, 10-25 minute wait.
EP is a CC 4, waits are 10-40 minutes (with Remy’s being at outlier at over 60)
AK is a CC 3, 15-60 minute waits

So if overall wait times are higher at DHS, why doesn’t it have a higher CC rating?

Any insight would be appreciated!

IME - Any CLs touring plans has published further than 2 months in advance are not reliable. They are just using a “historal average”. They update their calendar, usually, the first week of each month.

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Thanks for the response.

If that’s true, it really stinks.

As is true for most all of us, I can make park reservations now, but at 2 months before the trip I likely won’t be able to make changes (at least for DHS, which I’m assuming will be “sold out” by that point.)

Is there a possibility this could be an anomaly in the algorithm since the number doesn’t change for so many days in a row? Some of those dates that say 3 are during Winter Break, when it’s normally super busy. Is there someone at TP I could contact to ask?

During that same time period in December 2020, CL’s were mostly 2’s. Even the busy spring break this year averaged 3’s. So that prediction may be close.

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The best advice I can give you is to look at previous year’s crowd levels to get an idea what the trends have been for the last 3 - 5 years. (although I would skip 2020 as that an anomaly)

https://touringplans.com/walt-disney-world/historical-crowds

I personally go the first week or so of December often, like 12/1 - 12/12. It’s my favorite time to go as it is a slower time. It tends to ramp up the week before Christmas thru the week after New Years. So it’s not crazy that the parks will have low CLs the week you travel.

Also, the Touring Plans team has stated there’s really no statistical difference between CL that are a number or two higher / lower. A CL 2 and a CL4 are going to “feel” very similar.

It should be a bit slower in 2021 than previous years though as the Pop Warner teams that have been coming during that time frame since 1997 have moved to Universal this year. They dominated the hotels & parks - especially in the late afternoons / evenings.

I don’t know of anyone you can ask directly, but a lot of us on these forums go regularly & share our experience. I would, also, look through the “Trip Reports” section of the forums to see if anyone has documented a trip during that week.

https://forum.touringplans.com/c/walt-disney-world/trip-reports

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Looking back at previous years, the crowds usually don’t ramp up til the 3rd weekend of December. The data isn’t showing much wait time difference between the first full week and the second full week in December. So 11th to 18th should be ok.

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If WDW is still limiting capacity in the parks then a 3 is likely. We were in WDW in October of last year and our HS day was a 2 and I’d say it was accurate. I think that since HS has the smallest capacity of any park, as long as they are limiting capacity then the lines just can’t get much longer, but due to SW and ROTR they are usually the same each day. In other words, HS reaches capacity every day, and capacity is max a CL 2 or 3. Other parks have more room and will still have availability on a lot of days, so that is why their CL levels fluctuate more.

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I think this is based on existing capacity which is still at 35%. Even if at capacity, the number of guests in the park are still only at a CL of 3 on the busiest days. The CL levels are still compared to “normal” days, ie: pre-Covid.

Once the capacity is raised the CL levels will be adjusted accordingly.

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This. However, as they raise capacity, they are likely also opening up more attraction capacity. So going to 35% to 45% might result in a lot more people…but if more shows open up and more seats in existing shows and rides, then that additional capacity wouldn’t really cause appreciable rises in wait times (and CLs).

As others said, look at historical CLs for the parks pre 2020 to get a broader picture.

We were there in early December 2020 and crowds were fine. And they always looked worse than they were due to social distancing.

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