Hi. I’m trying to plan a trip for October, and the crowd predictions don’t appear to be taking recent developments into account – MK in particular.
Before Disney announced that they were doing the Disney After Hours Boo Bash, the MK predictions were clearly influenced by the idea that MNSSHP would be happening on certain days, significantly lowering the predicted crowds for those days due to the shorter park hours. Because MNSSHP isn’t happening this year, and the Boo Bash doesn’t affect the normal park hours, it’s probably not a good assumption that crowd levels will be significantly lower on the days predicted to have MNSSHP.
So that’s really it… I’m wondering when the predicted crowds for October will be updated, incorporating the new information that wasn’t known when the numbers were first posted.
I would hope by the end of July, since the crowd predictions for June, July, & August were updated in late May.
Have you picked out a week yet or booked a hotel?
I always suggest to look at historical crowd data (October 2017, October 2018, etc.) to get a better feel for crowd trends when considering certain weekends or holidays.
Bebe, thank you for your reply. I do have a vacation package booked at Pop Century.
I hope TP updates the October crowd predictions before the end of July, since I have tentative park pass reservations and wouldn’t want to have to try to change them two months from now, when there’s a chance I won’t be able to get the parks I want.
I have looked at historical crowd data, but I don’t think it will be as useful this time as it was before. First, because there isn’t really a precedent for this situation, with after hours ticketed event basically replacing the MNSSHP. In the past I used to like visiting MK on days it closed early for MNSSHP because the shortened hours really did lead to lower attendance and shorter wait times. I don’t think that will happen this time, or at least not to the same degree.
Second, the 50th Anniversary celebration begins in October, and it’s evidently generating a lot of interest.
Third, there are a lot of people out there with COVID relief money sitting in the bank, happily anticipating returning to WDW after being away due to the pandemic.
I realize that all of these factors will impact TP’s ability to accurately predict crowd levels, but the empirical data they’ve gathered over the years means they will be able to do a better job with this than I possibly could.
I’ve asked this question as well. Looking at past years doesn’t help because we suspect this issue is that the past year’s dates of halloween party are being used to predict 2021. The big example for me is that there is a 4 pt drop through October AND November between Wed and Thurs (crowd level 5 to 1 or 6 to 2). This is an issue as we have to get park passes ahead. Please tell us if this is likely to be wrong- I want to go to MK on Wed, and am assuming TP is wrong. I’m a 20 yr TP vet and Assuming TP is wrong is Not My Comfort Zone!!!
Yes, mcgrath, that’s exactly what I’m saying as well. The posted numbers are clearly being strongly influenced by the idea that MNSSHP shortens park hours, which discourages many visitors to MK on those days. I realize I’m repeating myself, but that just isn’t true this year.
Clearly the model TP uses to predict crowd levels has to be tweaked to account for normal park hours on those days. It’s even more important this year because we have to book park pass reservations, and it’s possible MK park pass reservations will ‘sell out’ for certain dates before TP updates their numbers.
Frankly, I feel better just having someone else get it! Thank you. It makes me feel better about my guess that doing Wed MK vs Thurs isn’t a bad one. I note that this thursday dip goes into November- so I wonder if they are assuming Christmas party as well. I know we can usually take the TP crowd calendar as a best guess, but until they adjust it, we can’t this year where things are so different.
