Toy Story MM 3rd track and my touring plan

So if there’s a third TSMM track…

…and we don’t get there until 9:15 on a day park opens 9am bc sorting out Jedi signup, finishing breakfast, how hideous do you think wait will be by 9:15? I’m guessing under current system it would be about 30+ by 9:15, not worth it to my kids to ride once in morning if we get later for FP. But if it’s way less, maybe we change our touring plan for the day to try once in morning and FP for later

(My plans are a MESS that day bc trying to game multiple options for that damn Jedi show, wish there was some way to FP that.)

Any other thoughts, suggestions? My kids love TSMM, but not enough to wait more than 25 min for a second ride of the day.

We were there over spring break with crazy crowds. We didn’t have to deal with breakfast, but we got there are at 8:30 and were allowed right in to stand in line for JT. There were a lot of people in front of us, but we made it to the front of the line and were signed up by 9:10 and there were still 371 spots available and we had our choice of shows. It seems like chances are good if you are there right away that you will get the show you want if you plug a specific time into TP. I was also hearing that people who are there early for breakfast maybe got to sign up first. We got to TSMM probably around 9:30 because I had a FP and the line was at least 30+ (but no third track opened yet). We got a hint from a CM. TSMM closed at 8:15 that night for fireworks. She said by 7:45 the wait drops down to <20 min and she was right.

No one knows for sure when the third track will open and how FPPs will work. One popular theory is that one or two of the tracks will be FPP only and the other a mix of FPP and SB, but no one really knows yet. I’ve been told that the general “rule” of FPPs is that the number of FPPs distributed equals 2/3 the capacity of the ride. So, for example, if a ride could load 100 people per minute, 66 of those would come from the FPP line and 33 would come from the SB line. Using this math, some are predicting that the two existing tracks will be FPP only and the new track will be SB only. The fact that they are installing some new queuing areas outside of the entrance gives some support to this theory…