I have been thinking about purchasing a small points contract resale. Probably Saratoga just due to cost. I’m dipping my toe in the waters so to speak. And I have questions! I’m a planner but not a long range planner. I tend to book vacations a few months out at most.
Is it difficult to find vacancy if you don’t jump on it right at the 11 month mark (for home resort) and 7 month mark for others?
If you have flexible dates, is it still possible to find something in a shorter window?
Even at the 11 month window, is it difficult to get what you want when you want it?
Has anyone used their points at Hilton Head or Vero Beach? Are those easier or more difficult to book than the DW resorts?
Am I dreaming if I think I can use my points to book at the Grand Californian?
I’m also wondering if I should wait a couple of months to see if prices soften a bit. There is no urgency. Especially if it will be more difficult to book in the next year or so due to the COVID shut down and people banking points.
For home resort the only issues I have heard of at 11 months is at Copper Creek and at busy seasons like major holidays.
That being said, the next couple of years are going to be very tight, availability-wise, due to the glut of points that are being banked forward due to pandemic cancellations.
Before pandemic it was almost always possible to find something in a shorter window, especially with some flexibility. Again, major holidays being the usual exception.
At 11 months difficulty in getting what you want seems to have been limited to the above mentioned issues (CC, busy seasons). But that was before the pandemic
You are definitely dreaming if you think you’ll be able to use your points at Grand Californian. Not impossible but very very unlikely.
I might wait to see what happens to the market, and also to see if there are any lasting changes made due to the pandemic
I echo everything @OBNurseNH just said about availability. I also own at SSR and we’re staying at AKL in October. However, I book 1-bedrooms and bought enough points to accommodate that. It’s the studios that generally are the hardest to book. But if your dates are really flexible you should be fine. Make sure to learn when DVC high seasons are versus regular room high demand times.
I would really suggest waiting to buy resale, personally. Take this time to watch prices and do your research and more research. I think prices have nowhere to go but down. Sellers used to be able to get a high price for the so-called “loaded” contracts with banked points, but now they are going to be facing tough availability and those extra points may not be able to get used. You’ll also start to see folks reassess their finances in a recession and need to liquidate. Also, Disney has not been buying back contracts so this will let prices fall as their floor is gone. For planning purposes, I would allow 3-4 months from when you make your offer until when you need to BOOK your planned vacation so potentially 11-15 months prior to when you want to travel.
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Dang. But what I thought. 
Is there a way for a non owner to keep track of availability?
I don’t have travel plans so this won’t be a problem. I do think you’re right about watching the market to see if prices start dropping.
Thanks to you both!
To emphasize a point made earlier, the later you plan to reserve the more you need to plan on reserving 1 bedrooms, and possibly the more expensive 1 bedrooms (this varies by resort whether “value” or “view” go first) so take this into account when figuring out how many points you want.
Also, I thought this was an interesting article about the current market. While prices are trending down, demand is out stripping supply. https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-may-20-report/
Thanks for this. I’m curious is the resale market will slow down as the economic impacts of COVID-19 and the shutdowns are felt more. I guess we’ll see. I have pretty much decided to buy, but might wait just a bit to see what happens with the market.
Question about the non-park resorts like Vero Beach and Hilton Head. Are these more or less difficult to book than park resorts?
I believe they are much less difficult.
I don’t think HH is less hard. It’s incredibly small - much smaller than I realized - and has very few of each kind of room. It’s easier in the off season. But in the time you’d want to be there it’s not as easy as one might think n.
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