The crowd calendar predictions for Nov 15-21 just went from a 2 to a 9. What is going on?

We planned our trip for the third week of November based on TPs prediction that it would be a 2/10. Now it’s a 9/10?!? How can they be so incredibly off? One of their reasons is that park hours may have changed, but Disneyland has had their park hours listed for weeks.

We are going Nov. 25-30 and just had the same thing happen… the crowd estimates have doubled! I don’t know if we would have gone at this time if they would have been that high. Very disappointed in Touring Plans. Now we will have to make sure we are up at the crack of dawn to beat the crowds!

Frustrating, isn’t it? We were thinking about postponing but our kids would mutiny. I definitely will NOT recommend this site to anyone.

Check out http://blog.touringplans.com/2015/11/10/disneyland-crowd-calendar-updates-for-november-december-2015/ for some more detail behind the changes. A lot of it comes down to things that could not be predicted.

Pretty vague explanation, if you ask me. They’re blaming it on Season of the Force? I’ve known about that for months and wondered if it would affect crowd levels. But I thought surely the “professionals” at Touring Plans would know about it, too. I guess they didn’t get the memo. They should try doing a search on “upcoming events at Disneyland.”

Has anyone been where a 9 or 10 has been predicted and it is in actually fact much lower (5 or6)? How accurate are the crowd prediction?I am hoping not that accurate since the updates!

We’re going the week of December 5-12 and has originally seen 3s, 4s and 5s. Now it’s gone up to 7s, 8s and 9s. TP is ALWAYS off when predicting DL crowds on the weekends. Weekends are always crowded yet they still continue to predict 3s and 4s. Definitely not looking forward to our trip now with the crowd increases. TP has had a lot of issues being accurate in their predictions lately, both at WDW and DLR. I have several friends that used TP to plan their trips and said they never will again because of how inaccurate the crowd calendars were.

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Wow…everyone take a moment and breath. TP is a resource…and a resource that does a lot of research so I don’t have to. I look at several sites and make my decisions based on many things. The fact that several people here, including myself, chose a time to visit DL during a historically slow week, is…our decision. Someone said they were not looking forward to their trip now because of the crowds. A classic example of First World Problems.
TP provided information that needed to be corrected. They corrected it. I am glad they did. I have had great success following the touring plans in The Unofficial Guides during crowded times. And I will do it again. I just have to shift my gears a little. Thanks to TP I have a plan that will navigate me through the crowds.

Looking forward to having fun with my wife, kid,s and grandkids 11/15 through 11/20.

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It would be one thing if TP adjusted their numbers based on something that was totally unpredictable. But the things they are blaming this on–Season of the Force, extended hours, and unusually large crowds that have been occurring since August–are things that they have known about for a while; so when they make the change only five days before everyone’s vacation, it’s a little hard to forgive.

And, yes, they are a resource. But they are a resource that charges people money based on claims that they have experts who are exceedingly accurate in their predictions. If this were a free site, I wouldn’t be saying a word. I truly am glad that the change won’t affect you, but for those of us who spent thousands of dollars and took off work for an uncrowded week (based on the predictions of a site we paid for), it’s kind of a big deal.

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I think the issue is that the “new normal” is crowds. There will always be crowds. That is why Disney raised their AP rates so much. They are trying to decrease their crowds. Last year in wdw during Labor Day there was no on in the Magic Kingdom. This year it was wall to wall! No one could predict that but TP could investigate what was going on and make adjustments. Have you made TPs with the new wait times so that you have the tools to have a great trip? Enjoy!

I just returned yesterday from DL. We were in the parks 11/11-14. It was crowded, yes, but with a good plan you will be fine. You should do early mornings (EE/MM if you can) or RD, leave during the middle of the day, and return in the evening. The night shows will take some planning if you want to see without a super long wait. Main Street and the Hub at night will be packed regardless of how crowded the rest of the park is. And I don’t mean crowded, I mean absolutely packed to the gills. Have never seen anything like it and I have been there a lot. Saturday we stayed until midnight after EE/MM in the morning and a break mid-day. Most of the crowd leaves after the FW, so the last 2 hours will be glorious as well as the first 2-3 hours of the day(the locals do not come early). I was very frustrated with the crowd level predictions being too low and not changed in the weeks up to my trip. (I had specifically asked TP and Len to look at Vets Day for weeks- it was showing a 2 even though I knew it would not be a 2. In fact they predicted an 8 the day before, and it was actually a 10). I printed my TP’s out Monday night as we were leaving Tuesday, and the numbers changed on Tuesday. I reevaluated them that night and they didn’t really change. They worked well when we used them, although I must admit we didn’t really follow them like we have in the past since we have been enough times to know what to do when.
Anyway, you will have a great trip regardless of the fact that TP missed the ball on the crowd levels. Just pack your patience. :smile:

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AGREE. Just came back from trip Dec 3-5. After winning the trip from a DisneyLand contest, I joined touring plans specifically so I could plan the trip to avoid crowds. When I booked it, crowd tracker planned levels at 3 on Thursday and 4 to 5 for Friday and Saturday. ACTUALS were 5 and 3 on Thursday and 7-10 on Friday and Saturday. Never would have planned to go on a 10 day.

We just came back from a 2 day visit to DL and DCA on a Park Hopper. Unable to get out of DL on Monday 12/7 to go to DCA when it was predicted to be a 4 and was actually a 7. Lines were long right from opening so took us all day to get through the popular rides. The touring plan created did not work after the first 2 hours due to falling behind because of the heavier crowds. I’m not sure there is an accurate way to predict crowd levels based on historic numbers when attractions change, weather factors into things, etc. So Buyer Beware when paying for this info and expecting it to be “correct”. Tuesday it was predicted to be 3/10 at DL and 2/10 at DCA, which is why we planned that week. No such luck…7/10 was what we saw on both days at both parks. Either everyone is reading Touring Plans thus going on their stated ‘low days’, or predictive software is not ‘working as intended’! Best luck we had was being experts at the FastPass. Watch the time frames for when you can get the next FastPass (on the bottom of the FP ticket) and get them for the popular rides early. Another strategy which is tough on young kids is you MUST get there for park opening to get the greatest frequency of rides. We arrived at DCA at opening and our boys rode California Screaming 3 times within 20 minutes, then we went to Buzz Blasters with only a 15 minute wait and load time. Got FastPass for Soaring on the way in, so had no wait for that when others during our FP time were waiting 45 minutes. As soon as FastPass allowed, we got Radiator Springs racers in the AM and it was a mid afternoon return so had lots of time to do the less heavy rides in DCA while waiting. Tower of Terror had breaks so watching the Lines app helped with live times and that had only a 15 minute wait. So take the Crowd levels with a grain of salt and just realize that popular times are popular. Not sure there will be many 2-3 days anymore!