System Generated TP for AK Nov 18, 2019? Are waits too optimistic?


#1

I’m working on a TP for AK on Monday, Nov. 18th. It has the wait for Na’vi River Journey at 12:28 pm listed as 12 minutes. https://touringplans.com/animal-kingdom/attractions/navi-river-journey/wait-times/date/2019-11-18

I’m really surprised since earlier this week, AK CL was a 3 and wait times midday were closer to an hour. Are times just not that reliable this far out?


#2

You link doesn’t seem to be working so I can’t see your whole plan, but at this point in time I think any predictions for CLs and wait times for dates after SWGE opens are more or less guesses. All of TPs predictions are based on statistical analysis of historic data. The opening of SWGE will be the single biggest event in WDW since the opening of AK; there’s no way that historical data can make predictions for this. I’ll be going a few weeks after you, so I’m in the same boat. Although I’ll make my ADRs and select my FPPs at the traditional 180 and 60 day windows, I’m not even going to attempt making a TP until about 30 days out; by then they might have at least some data to work with.


#3

yep i have same issue for end of october. I will also get my fastpasses and although I have TPs already, I will refresh and reoptomize a few days before my trip. I have a wait time for Navi in the afternoon of 14 minutes on a CL 5 (seems way optimistic to me). But also if you are looking at wait times on the Disney APP, they apparently are not often accurate. Its better if you can get a liner’s actual wait time while in park


#4

Thank you both much for your input!

Yeah, I understand that SWGE is gonna throw a major wrench into these analyses, but I would also think that the software would at least use the historical data it does have available for other parks (and that AK wait times would be closer to last November’s waits, and not, like, next to nothing…)

I guess I just have to wait until we get closer to the Fall to find out what is in store!


#5

Ha, I couldn’t wait until the Fall. I checked today and it looks like a noon wait at NRJ is now clocking it at a longer 87 minutes, which sounds more reasonable than the prior prediction.