I like your explanation for how TP works. Just a note though. I checked KtP’s crowd calendar and he has high crowds listed for the OPs week. Looks like there is a cheer and dance competition that week as well.
Interesting. This shows how much YMMV - I’ve never had good luck with KtP’s calendar… I’ve had two trips where his prediction was way off for me… So I didn’t even check their site when I was looking at other calendars.
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I was using the term “buggy”, in this case, to be a matter of perception rather than actuality. You’re right…it might NOT be a bug at all.
Probably, in hindsight, it would have been better to make the changes independently from one another. The problem now, for the end user, is there is no way to differentiate whether the changes are due to software changes, or data changes. As a result, the updated CL number becomes almost worthless information.
Had they JUST changed one versus the other, then it would be clear how much the change impacted the reported numbers, which could have been noted in the data.
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Heh. Totally agree with that. As an aside, it’s one of the things I try to instill in my team - many small, incremental changes are much better than big sweeping releases… It’s a hard skill to teach.
That’s interesting. I’ve had good experiences using his calendar. Just goes to show that crowd calendars are indeed just predictions. I like using them as a guidance when planning my days, but I also expect crowds at DW. I don’t get upset when they don’t turn out the way I expected. Just roll with the punches.
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Don’t mind people commenting on quality of service as long it’s constructive. I use CL as a guide and don’t use it to plan When I visit. I go when I go and adjust accordingly. I use the wait times posted by other liners to help me make in Park decisions. The biggest value I get from TP is the little tips and news items posted by the Liner community, along with the laughs and feeling of community. The yearly subscription price comes out to about 5 D&D coffees, so I know I’m getting my money’s worth.
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What defines “constructive”, though? We all vent our frustrations, which can be constructive…at least to the venter. There are times people do things JUST to be malicious, but that’s not the case here from what I can see.
There are plenty of threads on these forums that are venting about how Disney is operating as a business. I’d say a great many of them are NOT constructive, as far as Disney is concerned. Probably not even constructive in terms of OTHERS are concerned. But the expression of frustrations can help one better deal with the frustrations. It also opens conversations up to allow a more rounded view of the matter, which can aid in being constructive. Sometimes, misery just loves company. And sometimes there is the hope that venting of the frustrations might lead to someone (whoever that nebulous someone may be) with influence to help lead to a solution, etc.
Based on the large number of “panicky” threads that have popped up on these forums in the past several days related to the sudden increase in CLs, I think the OP of this thread was not at all out of line in venting those feelings. Those feelings are clearly not alone!
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There’s what was said, and there’s HOW it was said. That’s what matters.
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Maybe. But it is far to easy to misjudge HOW something is said, particularly in forums. So, I as usual, try my humanly best to offer grace.
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Well I guess I’m just not that good a person quite yet but I’ll keep trying 
Well, I like you. Whatever that’s worth.
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I am going to add here: if anyone is paying for touring plans for the crowd calendar then they are completely missing the value of the product. I have not paid any attention to them in years and years. I would pay 5x more a year to be a member of this community (but I am paid in full for the next few years anyways).
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Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! Len sometimes visits here
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Spoken like a true Disney-phile.
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You cannot control crowds and with any data, there is a margin for error. I believe TouringPlans has been transparent with this and very forthcoming with why the numbers have changed. I am sure they feel bad about it and as much as I have followed their information, I see no circumstance in which they would intentionally deceive anyone.
If you are using TouringPlans, you are ahead of most folks who are going to be in the parks. It is possible to have a great time and trip even with higher crowd levels. I say that as someone who has done it.
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There are a number of issues here, I think.
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Predicting the future is notoriously hard. As new information becomes available predictions change. Sometimes by a lot. Even then they can be spectacularly wrong. All the models predicted a win for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
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There is a question mark as to how much crowd levels really matter. Or, frankly, what they even mean. Low crowd levels do not necessarily mean shorter lines, as I understand it, because Disney will cut down the number of cast members and the operating frequency of the rides. We all get 3 FPPs no matter how crowded the parks, and these forums are full of tricks to increase your chances of getting more. The Touring Plans site will calculate an actual touring plan for you based on your goals and its latest predictions. It will constantly be willing to update that plan, up to and including while you’re in the middle of it in the park itself.
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The membership fee is really very low. And it’s so much more than crowd predictions. There’s a huge range of information on here and some very useful data. The site collates loads of information for you: park hours, EMH times and days, showtimes. It will calculate a touring plan and then draw a map of it for you. There are photographs from almost every hotel room so you can choose which type you want. The site will then fax your preferences for you to the hotel. And then these forums, which are worth ten times the subscription fee on their own. They’re stuffed to the drawstrings with useful information.
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Disney trips are very expensive and planning them is time-consuming and stressful. It’s understandable that people can get upset when things change and their plans seem ruined. But the truth is, if you know what you’re doing — and you can learn it right here on these forums — then no matter what happens, you’re going to have a great time. Sometimes you have to change things around and adapt, but things will still work out well, just differently to how you imagined.
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I’m confused though… what am I missing? I’ve been using TP and Unofficial Guide for a dozen years-ish, but CL has always been my biggest draw. When my kids were smaller I’d choose weeks and then days based entirely on predicted CLs. (Now that WDW staffs so stingeily I don’t see how any “off season” day will be a great as it was a decade or more ago, but I still enjoy UG and TP mostly because I like following a template.)
I’ve never looked at the crowd levels at all.
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Maybe he could ask other liners how they handle unexpected CL changes. Ask for input on his touring plan, FPP, RD or no RD, EMH or no EMH. He stated he has visited at Christmas, can’t be worse than that. What I’ve learned here is be flexible, manage expectations and don’t ruin your trip by dwelling on something bad that happens. I understand his frustration and sympathize. The question is what are you going to do now. I ‘m sure he’s already figuring things out. Like you said, there were already a number of threads about this, do we really need anymore. Live in the solution, not the problem.
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I completely agree here. Crowd calendar is not TP’s main product or selling point. The customized touring plans and their app are clearly the main products. And I’ve learned a TON from this forum, so those three are enough for it to be well worth the subscription!
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