We’re updating how we predict Lightning Lane return times once we have some data on actual distribution times. For example, within 7 days we know what the return time is for any attraction, if you were to obtain a LL right now. So our forecasts should incorporate that as a first step.
I’m writing a daily report that tracks that accuracy. And I’m trying to figure out which days to focus on for that accuracy.
For example, if everyone books their LLs at 7 days out, then “accuracy at 7 days out” is the most important metric. But if most people wait until the night before, then that becomes the most important number.
ETA: You can ignore this poll if you don’t regularly book LLMP.
7+ days in advance (the farthest out I possibly can)
I didn’t vote as I’m local and don’t really buy it often. But if we do for a special occasion or guests in town it is always as soon as possible. So if you book a room it’s 7 days if not 3.
Is there a balance between the optimal LL and reality within 7 days? I would find it more helpful for TP to tell me what to try and get if it becomes available.
If I had to settle because I picked LL later and times were gone, I think I would input the actual times I had booked and let TP work around it.
I start my TP super early, like a month+ ahead - I’d assume in that case TP would suggest premium LL times, or have an option like the rope drop selectors?
Granted, I follow all the advanced threads and try hard to move things around if I don’t get what I want right away (plus there are certain ones I would rather do after dark, eg SDD, even if it means locking a LL and only rolling 1-2 during the day).
I am about to buy LLMP’s for two days in May, so I voted “7,” even though I’ve never done it before, I’m doing it this year, and if I survive this experiment, I may do it again the next time I go to WDW, unless I’m there on a party day, in which case, I won’t buy LLMP again, and if this year goes the way I pessimistically think it will, I won’t buy it again; I’ll just wait to win the lottery and buy Premier Passes or VIP tours, because dang.
Follow-up question around predicting when Lightning Lanes are going to run out.
Let’s say we have historical Lightning Lane distribution times for Kilimanjaro Safaris for one day of your trip. Let’s say that date is April 30, 2026 and the Animal Kingdom’s Early Entry starts at 7:30 a.m.
That historical data says “For the days in the past that we think are like April 30th is gonna be, here’s what the typical return times look like”. And it’s this graph:
We need to predict when Lightning Lanes are going to run out.
The historical data says that for more than 50% of past days like April 30, Lightning Lanes are gone at 585 minutes after park opening. That’s 5:15 pm in this example.
50/50 is, of course, a coin flip. Some people would take those odds even for planning.
My question: Is 50% the right threshold to use for planning? Should it be 60%? 70%? Some other number? Let me know what you’d be comfortable with from a planning perspective.
I think the number needs to be higher for Touring Plans and planning. Anyone can make a 50/50 prediction. I am hoping if I am relying on TP it would be closer to 70%. I know this is not always the case, but that would be what I was looking for.
I agree with this. Also, I think people who “beat the odds” may get a little excitement if they get it outside of the predicted time. Probably a disclaimer that you may still be able to get LLs after this point, but that your options will be diminished.
Okay, so if I’m understanding this correctly, once the chance of getting the LL drops below 70%, we should assume they’re gone for the purposes of planning?
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