Predictions of what RotR will do to crowds in HS

I’ve been thinking about RotR and the idea that it is unknown what it will do to crowds in HS, at least initially.

I think that is partially true. But there are some predictions I can make as to what it will do. I like making predictions. I particularly like making predictions when I end up being right. And when I’m wrong, I’ll just never bring those instances up again! :wink:

  1. Anyhow, I DO think that we will see an initial influx of folks to ride the new ride, particularly from AP holders.
  2. I also think that there will be a SLIGHT uptick to number of guests coming to Disney following the initial rush (first week or so), but probably only enough to offset the decline they have seen up to this point. (Disney saw a 3% drop in attendance recently.)
  3. RotR will place more people in line and on a ride from HS, which may actually improve overall lines for other areas of the park. With a ride that is expected to be 30 minutes, and for it to supplant MFSR as the premier ride in HS, I think it will add, overall, about an hour (roughly speaking) to the time people spend in SWGE.
  4. The result of this means that the crowds that currently start in SWGE will end up moving on to TSL an hour or so later.
  5. In addition, I think RotR will shorten RD waits for MFSR significantly, and SDD slightly.
  6. However, this does mean that after, say, noon, we’ll start to see TSL wait times start to increase from the SWGE guests. This means that while SDD standby times started to drop by noon, I think the SB times for SDD will likely not drop until later in the afternoon by an hour or so more. BUT, it also means it might be a little easier to handle waits in the morning, say an hour or so after RD, in TSL.
  7. Longer term, I don’t think RotR will have a significant bearing on overall wait times for guests in HS. I think, instead, it will just shift wait times around. Those who will most benefit will be those who don’t plan to do SWGE on a given visit, or who plan to do SWGE late in the day rather than early.

I guess, overall, I just don’t see RotR adding much to crowds over and above what is normal.

We shall see.

100% agree on all points. I think you really nailed it on #3

Is this year-over-year or month-to-month? I know the launch of SWGE wasn’t what was anticipated but would be surprised if they lost attendance from the same time last year. (FYI the analyst in me is just curious).

Totally, love your educated guess! We research and research and still have questions on the ‘what ifs’. I love hearing predictions, which only help to make educated guesses in planning.

I haven’t read much on RotR Is it really 30 min long ride time? Wow, awesome! But also not great when I’m trying to focus on what the kids would enjoy over what I want :wink:

It was part of a larger news story just yesterday where they were talking about this. I can only assume they meant year-over-year, since they were comparing how despite attendance figures being down 3%, revenues were actually up.

Sounds great in theory, but that didn’t happen in AK with the coming of FOP. Wait times at all rides went up 15-20% or so, because of the sheer increase in visitors to the park (more people coming for that ride and Pandora generally). Would love to be convinced that this situation is different, though.

Don’t mistake newest with premier. I would not consider MFSR to be the premier ride at HS. I’d place it behind ToT, RnR and SDD. I agree with you, however, that RofR will be the premier attraction once it opens. And MMRR will likely be second on the premier attraction list come spring.

I think the situation is different.

First, because, frankly, there wasn’t much going on in AK in the ride/thrill department. I mean, sure, there is EE and Dinosaur, but those are VERY ripe in age now, not much a draw. But Pandora was not only “fresh meat” in AK in terms of a ride, but it also set a new bar for Disney in their attempt to compete with WWoHP.

Second, once Pandora opened, it didn’t have a lot of ride competition (as mentioned) within the park itself. People were coming to see Pandora, but then what else was there to do?

Third, HS, by comparison, already has a relatively new land (TSL) drawing in large crowds for kids, on top of the thrill-ride seekers with RnRC and ToT. It already had a full target audience that has driven up crowds.

Fourth, even though everyone was initially afraid of SWGE in terms of new crowds, as we’ve seen played out, Disney made several missteps that reduced interest dramatically. The result? Crowds went down, not up.

Fifth, while some people decided to hold off on SWGE for ROTR, many did not and have already done their Disney trip for SW. That means additional crowds and repeat crowds for SWGE will be limited. And, while ROTR will be a cutting edge attraction, it still suffers from the same missteps Disney originally made with with the Star Wars fan base.

At least, that’s my story and I’m sticking to it…until I’m proven wrong, in which case I’ll deny EVERYTHING.

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Yeah. Maybe it wasn’t the best word choice. I was using the term merely as a means to describe the ride most likely driving in crowds. SDD is a close second (and might actually be first).

According to

Attendance in 2018 was (in millions):
20.9 MK
12.4 EP
13.8 AK
11.3 DHS

Assuming most visits are people visiting more then one park per trip, this does mean that DHS tends to me skipped more/repeated less, on average. If SWGE makes DHS a not-to-miss park this might increase lines on all attractions, if it is stronger then the effect of increasing overall park capacity.

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I’m surprised that there would be any decrease in in numbers at HS with all the claims that HS used to be a 1/2 day park for them but now it’s a 2-day park day for them…
Opening days/weeks will be busy with AP/locals/die-hards obviously, but then we’re running into winter break which will throw all predictions out the window, sort of like the hurricane. We’ll be swarming in by CL 10 numbers, regardless of what’s open because that’s how the holidays roll. Then all of us who used to consider HS a half-day park will be lingering with the unknown…just taking up space…

It is becoming a 2 day park, but it isn’t fully yet. I think with ROTR and MMRR, it might be.

But it stopped being a 1/2 day park, I think, with TSL.

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Maybe I’ll buy some of that, as far as comparing AK to HS and premier rides, but I think as for your Fifth point, there are many (most, even) who have not yet done their SWGE trip. People were still doing their AK trip for Pandora years after the park opening. SWGE has only been open for two months. I think they’ve barely scratched the surface of visitors coming to see that land.

I will be in SWGE the following weekend after ROTR opens and I’m nervous as to how to plan my day. I’m hoping to go straight to it at rope drop and then do the rest of the park but it’s hard knowing yet what is best

What I mean is those who are going specifically for SWGE. It doesn’t add anything to the crowds if those who were already planning to go show up. Crowds only go up if people who wouldn’t have otherwise gone decide to go now. I am not expecting a huge increase in that regard. Mostly AP holders.

I think you are right @ryan1. but how will you separate out the uptick in crowds from Christmas vs Rotr? I guess you wait until mid January

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Yeah. Quite true. What might be telling, however, is if Christmas crowds stay unchanged or even reduced compared to last year.

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